Imiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu izokwenziwa ukungalingani emhlabathini. Kwenye indawo umthelela uzoba mubi kakhulu futhi obhubhisayo, kepha ezinye izifunda zingazuza ekushiseni, ososayensi basePrinceton University of Jose Luis Cruz no-Esteban Rossi-Hansberg abhaliwe ngemiphumela yocwaningo lwabo olusha.
Kwenye indawo ukufudumala komhlaba kuzonikeza ukwanda kokusebenza ngo-15%
Ososayensi abanemodeli ye-appraisal ehlanganisiwe ebalwa imiphumela yezomnotho amazwe azoletha ukushisa emazweni ahlukahlukene. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezingxenyeni ezihlukene zeplanethi, azikho kuphela imiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu, kodwa futhi nezimpendulo zazo zifuduka, ukuguqulwa kwamaketanga okuhweba, ukuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe bendawo, ukuxhumana phakathi kwezomnotho. Phambilini, lezi zici, kanye nokubikezela okuningiliziwe kwemiphumela yesimo sezulu ezifundeni ezahlukahlukene, ososayensi banikeze ukunakwa okuncane, gcizelela ababhali.Ukwandisa amazinga okushisa weplanethi ye-degree celsius ezindaweni ezishisa kakhulu kuzoholela ekuwohlokeni kwezimo zasendlini ngo-5%, nokusebenza - ngo-15%. Ngenxa yalokho, inhlala-kahle kwamanye amazwe e-Afrika naseLatin America ingahle iwele ngo-10-15%. Ngokuphambene nalokho, ezindaweni ezibandayo - ISiberia, eCanada, i-Alaska, nokunye. - Inhlala-kahle ingakhula ngangokunokwenzeka ngo-15%, ososayensi bakwaPrinceton bakholwa. Ngasikhathi sinye, amazwe ampofu kakhulu azohlupheka kakhulu, kanti abacebisi bathinteka ngezikhathi ezithile.
Ucwaningo luphakamisa inkinga ebaluleke kakhulu yokungalingani kokusatshalaliswa kwendawo yemiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni jikelele kweqembu lezingozi zokusebenza kanye nokuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwe-KPMG eRussia naseCis Vladimir Lukin. Uphenyo lwalokhu umehluko omkhulu ezindlekweni zokuzivumelanisa nezimo zesimo sezulu ezifundeni ezahlukahlukene zeplanethi, kanye nemiphumela efana "nokusatshalaliswa kabusha kwezinsizakusebenza zezimboni kanye nokugeleza kwemali. Ngokusobala, kufanele kubhekwe lapho kuthuthukiswa izindlela zokulawula ukuvikela ushintsho lwesimo sezulu. Okokuqala, kuphathelene namathuluzi wezezimali anjenge-carbon tax noma iTransklorary Carbon Regulation Mechanism (okungenzeka ukuthi amazwe ahlupheka kancane kufanele akhokhe ngaphezulu uma le mali isetshenziselwa izimali ezisetshenziswayo), iLukin aphikisana.
Kepha akunjalo ncamashi
Kodwa-ke, ababhali ngokwabo babona ukuthi imodeli ibikezela amathonya abalulekile (kanye nomlingiswa wawo ongemuhle noma omuhle) ezindaweni ezinesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, kepha isilinganiselo sayo asicacisiwe. Ngenxa yalokhu, akunakwenzeka ekugcineni ukuthi ulinganise umthelela wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu esikalini emhlabeni jikelele.
Ucwaningo olusha alukwazanga ukubheka zonke izici, ngoba noma iyiphi imodeli yenziwe lula. Inkinga ukuthi imiphumela elula elula yenziwe kalula, futhi iyinkimbinkimbi kakhudlwana futhi ayilungile - cha, ngakho-ke ungaweli emamodeli anjalo, umqondisi womkhuba wezinsizakalo emkhakheni wentuthuko esimeme uYed Sergey Daiman.
Vele, ukulimala kwesimo sezulu kuzobe kungafakwanga ngokungalingani futhi lapha kudlalwa izici ze-geography ngokomzimba zidlalwa ngempela - ukukhula kwezikhukhula kwasolwandle, ukuthuthuka okubucayi, ukoma noma ukuhanjiswa kwemvula okuqhubekayo okungaphezu kwalokho okuqhubekayo. Kepha akulungile ukucabanga ukuthi kwezinye izifunda, izitayela ezinhle zilinganisa umonakalo okhulayo wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu.
I-Russia ithembisa ezolimo ezintsha zezolimo
Iqiniso lokuthi amazwe amaningi angathola izinzuzo ngokushisa komhlaba azinlotshwa okokuqala. "Alikho izwe elingcono kuneRussia, ukuze akwazi ukuzuza ngokushisa komhlaba," ama-New York Times abhala phambilini, futhi ebhekisa ocwaningweni. I-Russia izoba nesimo sezulu esihle ngokwengeziwe esizovumela futhi sihehe abafuduki (okokuqala kwabo bonke abavela emazweni aseNingizimu Asia, abazoxosha indawo ezayo kanye nokunweba indawo yomhlaba wezolimo (ngenkathi e-USA , I-Europe neNdiya bazokwehla), kwathiwa kulesi sihloko.Ngemiphumela emihle yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, uhulumeni waseRussia ohlelweni lukazwelonke lokuzivumelanisa nezimo eziguquguquki ngokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu Thatha:
- ukunciphisa izindleko zamandla esikhathini sokushisa;
- Ukwenza ngcono izimo zokuhamba olwandle i-Arctic olwandle e-Arctic Ocean;
- ukunwebisa indawo yokukhiqizwa kwezitshalo, ukwanda kokusebenza kahle kokuvinjelwa kwezilwane;
- Ukukhulisa umkhiqizo we-boreal (okungukuthi, amahlathi angenakugwenywa).
E-Russia, kunezikhathi eziningana zokuwina, zibheka umlingani wesazi se-BCG konstantin Polunin. Okokuqala, ukuzulazula olwandle olusenyakatho unyaka wonke. Okwesibili, ukufinyelela kumaminerali, ukukhipha okwakungenzeki ngaphambili. Okwesithathu, ukwanda endaweni yasemhlabeni otshaliwe kanye nokukhula kwezinto zokuthumela ngaphandle. Nowesine, kusukela eRussia cishe ama-20% azo zonke izitoko zomhlaba wamahlathi futhi kungabhekwa njengehlathi hhayi njengezinkuni, kepha ukuzihlola ngekhono lokubopha i-carbon oxide, ukunyuka kokuhlolwa kwamahlathi amahlathi kungaletha iRussia imali engenayo.
Vele, ungathola imiphumela emihle, kusho uDaikan. Isibonelo, amandla okushisa kweRussia angadinga okuncane, futhi esimeni somoya - ngaphezulu, kepha hhayi okuningi. Kepha kunokulahleka okukhulu kakhulu, ngokwesibonelo, ukuthola ingqalasizinda yamandla ngenxa yokukhula imvamisa yamaconsi angazelelwe, ukuguqulwa ku-zero, amazinga okushisa abucayi. Ngisho nokusebenza kwe-TPP ngokwanda kwamahlathi okushisa, uyaphawula.
Kepha ngezinhlekelele zemvelo futhi ngaphandle kwama-hydrocarbon ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe
E-Russia, isimo siyathakazelisa kakhulu, kusho uLin: Kukhona izifunda lapho izimo zithuthuka khona - isikhathi sesikhathi sokukhula, njll. Futhi kunezifunda lapho izingozi ezintsha nezinsongo ezihambisana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu: ngokwesibonelo, ukuncibilika kwe-permafrost.
Manje umhlaba utholakala kwi-trajectory, engaholeli kuma-degree angu-1.5, kwathi ku-4-5 degrees Celsius ukufudumala ngasekupheleni kwekhulu le-XXI, kukhumbuza iPolunin. Ngenkathi wonke amamodeli aphakamisa ukuthi ukufudumala komhlaba kuzoba okungalingani (endaweni yokugaya okuphakade, ku-warps kuma-5-9 degrees) futhi kuvezwe ngokwanda kwezikhathi zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu (izikhukhula, izivunguvungu, izivunguvungu, imililo, njll.) . Ukubhujiswa kwaminyaka yonke okuvela kuleyo phenomena sekuvele kulinganiselwa ku- $ 600 billion, futhi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi $ 1 trillion kufinyelelwe. Ngokwezilinganiso zezinkampani zomshuwalense, ngo-2050, ngokwanda kwezinga lasolwandle elingu-0.5 m, umthelela omkhulu emadolobheni angama-570 omhlaba emgqeni osogwini kungenzeka abe seRussia, eRussia, kungathinta ubuncane be ISt. Petersburg neVladivostok. Ngokwesikali somhlaba wonke, ukufudumala kungaholela ekufudukeni okwengeziwe kwabantu abayizigidi ezingama-200. Konke lokhu kunganciphisa ukukhula kwe-GDP yomhlaba wonke ngo-30%, izaziso uhhafu-munye.
Izinhlekelele zemvelo azidlulisi iRussia. Ngo-2019, kusuka entela ye-Russian ngayinye esebenza ama-ruble ayi-10,000. Kwahamba ukuqeda imiphumela yemvelo yemvelo eyingozi, kubalwa Isikhungo se-Global Climate RoshyDromet. Umonakalo waminyaka yonke wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu eRussia ulinganiswa ngamashumi amabini ama-ruble, uLukiny afana. Ngakho-ke, uma kunikezwe ukuthi ukufudumala eRussia kwenzeka ngokushesha okungu-2,5 kushesha ukwedlula isilinganiso somhlaba (i-roshydomet lawa), ukunakwa okukhethekile kufanele kukhokhwe kuhlolo oluningi lwezingozi nezindlela ezithuthukile kakhulu ezisebenzisa izindlela ezisezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu, uyakholelwa.
Ukuncibilika kwe-permafrost kuzodala ukulimala emkhakheni kanye nengqalasizinda yeRussia (ngokuya ngezilinganiso ezithile, ukulahleka kuzoba ngama- $ 100 billion ngo-2050), kusho uPolunin. Lapho uqhubekela emnothweni wekhabhoni, isidingo semikhiqizo kawoyela kanye namafutha nge-EU singancipha kakhulu, ngokuya ngezilinganiso ezithile - kuze kube ngu-80%. Kepha kufanele kube ukwanda okukhulu kwamanani entengo yokudla, kusho yena.
KwezoLimo, izindawo ezintsha zizovela ngamazinga okushisa ajwayelekile - kepha lapho ezolimo zingakwazi ukwenziwa, inhlabathi ayikhiwa, ayikho ingqalasizinda, ixwayisa uDaiman. Futhi kulezo zindawo lapho ezolimo ziyisisekelo somnotho, kuzoba nokulahleka kwezitshalo: ukulahlwa, isomiso, ukugeza okuhlala isikhathi eside nezikhukhula.
"I-Russia izolahlekelwa," Umqondisi wohlelo lwesimo sezulu kanye namandla kanye nohlelo lwamandla we-World WorldLife Fund (WWF Russia) u-Alexey Kokorin ungokwehlukanisa. Kuzoba nomthelela oqondile lapha kunakwamanye amazwe, kepha kusukela ekufuneni uwoyela, amalahle kanye negesi - kuyachaza.