Abaphikisi baseRussia basebenzise umfanekiso ka-Alexei Navalny futhi baqongelelwa ekunganekalweni kwe-pandemic kwabantu ukukhuthaza izintshisekelo zabo, kusho uMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin. Ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari, abasekeli be-blogger ephikisayo benqabile ukwenza amasheya amasha angahambisani nentwasahlobo, echaza lokhu ngengozi 'ukudumazeka' kwendawo yonke "yabahlanganyeli. Ngasikhathi sinye, inhloko yenethiwekhi yendlunkulu yesifunda uLeonid Volkov uthe kuzoba "yizindlela zenqubomgomo zakwamanye amazwe" zokufuna ukukhishwa kwama-navalny. Kusho ukuthini ukuguqulwa okunjalo kwezinto eziza kuqala, futhi yiziphi izenzo ezingalindelwa kusuka kokuphikiswa esikhathini esizayo, zihlaziye inhloko yalesi sikhungo nge-Political Economic Christian Institute of Nesthashov entsha yeVasily Koltashov.
Uma kunecebo elithile le-coup "Colour" eyinhloko e-US ne-EU esikhaleni se-USSR yangaphambili, khona-ke iphathelene neRussia. Akukho ndawo emasontweni angaphambili eSoviet, i-oda ngemuva kokuthi iMaidan alizinzile, nethonya langaphandle - linikezwe kuze kube yilapho kukhona iRussia ezimele. Ngakho-ke, ukwehluleka kwe-Russian Front kubaluleke kakhulu kubaholi abadala bohlelo lomhlaba jikelele, nalolu shintsho kwinqubo yase-Eurasia.
NgoJanuwari Ukwehluleka kokuphikiswa
Ukuma kwezemidlalo yaseNtshonalanga ye-Alexey Navalny yasolwandle ngeke kusithathe isinqumo sokubuyela eRussia uma ukwehluleka okunjalo kungabona kusengaphambili. Babengeke bacabange ukuthi isigodlo se-Fairy-Tale esivela kwifilimu sizoba yi-villa ekhonkolo kuphela, lapho kungekho khona izimangaliso zokunethezeka. Noma bencane, ngokusobala babelindele ukuthi uhlelo lokusebenzisa umkhankaso wokubhikisha ngezigaba eziningana luzosongelwa ngokubumbana kwalo kusuka esiteji, futhi esikhundleni sokukhuphuka. Yilokho okwenzekile. Kepha ngisho nokuhanjiswa kwezinto ezihlukunyezwa ekuyaziseni akusizi.Ngokwemiphumela yomkhankaso ongaziwa kakhulu, ngoJanuwari 31, igagasi lezincwadi eziphathelene nabezindaba zenkululeko kanye ne-blogger ngobukhulu bamaphoyisa kanti iRosgvadirdi ihambile. Ukusuka lapha singaphetha ngokuthi konke lokhu kungumzamo wokushintsha ukugxila kwesenzo esingaphumelelanga; Akukho ukwanda kwenani lababambiqhaza bekungabonakali, ngakho-ke, bekufanele ukulilindele umbhikisho. Ithemba elinjalo selingabonakali ngaphezu kokusobala. Ngakho-ke, abezindaba abaningi abangenabo futhi baseNtshonalanga sebephenduke amandla aphindwe kabili okufanele basebenze ngemizwa, bagcizelele inani lababambe iqhaza, hhayi kokuqukethwe komhlangano wabo (abaqondakali kakhulu ngemuva kokuthi kuphume isigodlo se-Fairy-Tale ukhonkolo kuphela), nangesihloko sobukhali bokufika.
Eqinisweni, ubulukhuni obukhethekile alukwazanga ukuthembela ngokungathi sína: Ngokuphikisana nokucasulwa okuningi, izikhulu zokuqinisa umthetho ziphinde zabonisa ukusebenza kahle komsebenzi wazo. Eminye yamaphoyisa e-US isebenza kakhulu. Angizange ngiphindaphinde eMoscow ukuphinda i-New Fork yozakwethu baseBelarusian abenze ukubheja ngokuqina kokucindezelwa. Eqinisweni, ukucindezelwa kokubhikisha eRussia kwakungekho. Okufanayo nalokhu akuyona umbono we-Navalny emphakathini, kunokuba ama-cartridge akhe angathanda.
Omunye umuntu owayezisho umholi
Ngenxa yokwehluleka komkhankaso wolwazi, isigodlo nangokukhanga kwakhe 'emazweni aphucukile', lapho abavoti bekhulu le-XIX babambe iqhaza "ekukhethweni okuhle" ekuboneni imibono yomphakathi inkululeko ye-Wrestlers uthole isithombe sabahambi bakazwelonke. Ngakho-ke, isibalo esikhulu sezakhamizi esithola imibhikisho esungulwa ukuphikiswa okuphikiswa yi-Pro-Western njengomzamo wokuphindaphinda iMaidan yase-Ukraine (futhi akunjalo?). Ekhuluma ngenye indlela, babona amaphoyisa kanye nonogada bakazwelonke njengabavikeli bezinhloso zezwe lapho eWest kanye nemibuthano yakhe e-elite esondela ezweni belungiselela umbala.
Lesi kwakungesona isimo se-Oscillations, esabonwa eBelarus ngasekupheleni kwehlobo nasekuweni kuka-2020. Ngemuva kwalokho kwathatha ukuhwebo abaphathi bendawo ngeRussia (ukwenqaba ukubhekana nokubambisana), umkhankaso wokuvezwa kwe USvetlana Tikhanov nabanye abaholi bama-putterp aphikisanayo kazwelonke abaphikisana nabo eNyakatho yeNtabuko yezakhamizi babone usongo. ERussia, ukuphikiswa kwakuphikiswa ngokushesha.
Konke lokhu kubuye kukhulume ngokwahlukaniswa komphakathi waseRussia, kodwa kuphela ingxenye encane yayo eyamukela iphathi ye-neoliberal pro-Western. Iningi lihlobene nalo ngaphandle kokuvunywa, futhi abaningi bakubona obala lokho kuyibutha kuyo.
Ngezindlela eziningi, umphumela wesithunzi "sase-Ukraine futhi ukucwiliswa kwawo ngo-2020 ngo-2020 ukubhujiswa okwengeziwe, ngenkathi eseRussia kwakukhona izinguquko ezithuthukayo. Bakhathazekile ukuphathwa kwezomnotho, inqubomgomo yezenhlalo, kanye nokuhlanza kancane kancane kohlelo lokuphatha lwesimo esivela kubasebenzi be-neoliberal. Ekugcineni, umngcele obalulekile wawukwamukelwa kwezichibiyelo zoMthethosisekelo. Izisusa zeNdlunkulu yaseRussia yokuvota okuphikisayo kwenkululeko "ngoba" amaRussia abonakala engakaze ahlaziye nakancane.
Ukuvikelwa Okubi Kwasolwandle
Kulesi simo, ama-naverny awakwazi ukubalwa esinqumweni sokwahlulela esizuzisayo. Ngemuva kokuboshwa kwakhe esikhumulweni sezindiza, kungenzeka ukuthi usakholelwa esithembisweni somzabalazo esithembisile, futhi mhlawumbe ukudedelwa okusheshayo. Kepha ngoFebhuwari kwaba yisikhathi semicabango ehluke ngokuphelele ephefumulelwe ukwehluleka komkhankaso.Ekupheleni kwenkantolo, abaningi ababukele babenomuzwa wokuthi u-Alethei Navalny wephulwa ngokucacile ngaphambi kokuthola indawo esibhedlela eRussia, imithetho eyatholakala enecala. Ngokusobala lokhu bekuyingxenye yecebo elikhulu (mhlawumbe kude nomuntu wakhe), owaphenduka uFiasco. Ngenxa yalokho, njengabameli futhi bethenjiswa, kwenzeka - ngoba wephule isikhathi sokucala futhi wakwenza ngokuhlelekile, isinqumo senkantolo ngaleso sikhathi sasingokoqobo. I-Navalny kulezi zimangalo, i-Fsin ayikwazanga ukuphendula ngokunenjongo, futhi enkantolo ayivikeli lesi sikhundla. Yebo, wayengabalulekile kuye kwezepolitiki. Enye into ukuthi lo mdlalo wezepolitiki wavela waba yize: umphumela awuzange usebenze, futhi kwavela izinkinga.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi ukuzivikela kwe-blogger-politowess kuphuma embuzweni wesizathu sokwehluleka ukuvela esibhedlela futhi ngaphezu kokuhlala kwakhe eJalimane. Ezinkulumweni zangaphambili, uNavalny wathi "ukwephula kwakhe" kwakhe kwakufanele kube khona ukuthi wayesesimweni esingazi lutho eJalimane. Kodwa-ke, i-Navalny Fsin ngesikhathi okungeyona eyabahlanhla ayizange ibangele. Futhi, kwaphuma, kukhona okwakungukubheja kwakhe kulo mdlalo futhi umdlalo usunele ngokwanele, okucashile okusemthethweni bekungeke kubaluleke. Kepha kulo mdlalo kwakungekho ukuhlaziywa kwamanje, konke bekunzima futhi ngokuya ngomphumela - isiphukuphuku. I-Navalny cishe izophoqeleka ukuba ikhombise ezinyangeni ezizayo. Ngokusobala, osopolitiki kanye nama-cartridge awo awazange aqonde umbono wokuthuthukiswa kwenqubo yezenhlalo eRussia; Babengenayo eminye imithombo yolwazi yempumelelo, kodwa okubalulekile.
Bheka konke okuhlukile
Isikhathi sizotshela. Mhlawumbe, uNavalny uqagela ukuthi uNebid wezixuku ngokuya ngesikhalazo sakhe emgwaqweni akusona amandla ngaphambi kokukhala, kodwa isinqumo esizisekayo. Lesi senzo. Uma eyiqonda, uzokuqonda lokho okwakungafanele ukuba adlale ikusasa lakhe. Ngemuva kwakho konke, uyazi ukuthi izizathu zenhloso zokwehluleka, futhi lokhu kungukwephulwa okungu-7 ngaphambi kokuba kwangeniswe esibhedlela ngo-2020, akazange abe nakho. Uyazi ukuthi lokhu kuphula umthetho we-Fsin eminyakeni edlule yokulahlwa okunemibandela kwakuyingxenye yomdlalo. Futhi alikho ibhizinisi elisha ngokumelene Nasolwandle. Konke okudala, futhi kuphela umyalo wokudonsa isijeziso sokwenza ubugebengu bezomnotho.
Kodwa-ke, kunokuthile okufanele ucabange ngakho konke okunye. Ukwehluleka kwemikhankaso yokubhikisha yokuphikiswa kwenkululeko kuguquka esikhaleni sase-Erasia. Ngemuva kwakho konke, manje zonke izinqubo zomdlalo omkhulu wamazwe omhlaba zingaphenduka ngaphesheya.
Lokhu kuzosho hhayi ukuqala kwe-maidanov, kanye nokuhlaselwa "kombala" kuyizindlela ze-Pro-Western Neoliberal. Ukusebenza kokubonakaliswa kwezithunzi ezintsha "zesithunzi" nakho kungakhuphuka nesampula lase-Ukraine. Kepha lapha ukhiye yinkambo, okulungele ukufeza iziphathimandla zalezo noma ezinye izizwe zangemva kweSoviet.
Isiphetho esiyisisekelo se-Eurasia
Maphakathi nempi yombango e-Ukraine, ngonyaka ka-2014, abanye abahlaziyi baxwayisa: Uma iRussia inika i-United States kanye ne-EU ukuthatha leli lizwe ngaphansi kokulawulwa kwalo, khona-ke okuthengiswayo kwe- "Colour Revolution" kwezinye izifunda. Kwakunengqondo ukulindela eMoscow. Impi yangaphandle yeRussia bekufanele ngabe yangaphakathi, ngoba okwangaphandle kwakuyindawo kuphela. Ngokungathathi hlangothi, kwakufanele kuhlawulwe yi-Belarus, okwathi ngo-2020 kwaqhutshwa yinkosi yakwangaphandle. Lapha ukusekelwa kweMoscow akuvumeli ukuthi aphumelele, kepha akuzange kugcinwe iRussia emzameni we-Pro-Western Liberals - Ukuphikiswa ukuhlela ukuthathwa kwamandla.
Imicimbi yenziwe ukucaca lapho osopolitiki bengafuni ukuqonda. Kodwa-ke, ukusondelana kwe-Navalny Campania ekuqaleni kuka-2021 eRussia kwaba nemiphumela yako. Into esemqoka ukwehluleka okuphelele kweMaidan eRussia, lapho isisindo sabantu senqabe ukusekela abaphikisi - abasentshonalanga. Akukona nhlobo ukuze kusizakale umbhikisho, kuthuthukiswe yiNkantolo yaseWestern, kanye nokuvela kweNkantolo "yezomlando" ngobuningi bezinqwaba zokunikezwa kwama-diplomats angaphandle. Ekugcineni, umphakathi waseRussia wakubona lokhu nje njengoba bethanda entshonalanga
Isichotho esikade sithi "isichotho egqumeni", uhlelo lwaseMelika lwamandla (i-Oligarchy, luvelele ngokwakhe ngentando yeningi) kanye nomnotho ophumelelayo (okhishwe imodeli yemakethe yamahhala) - Konke lokhu kwavela ukuthi kube yinxiwa. Ngakho-ke, lapho abasekeli be "Revolution Colour" sesebekhuthele ngokwengeziwe ekukhombe "emazweni ajwayelekile" njengesampula eRussia, kwasebenza ngabo. Izakhamizi zazingenazo futhi azikwazanga ukusekela amasheya amenyezelwe indlunkulu yegunya le-Navalny. UMaidan wehlulekile. Ukuwa ngengozi. Kwenzeka futhi ngenxa yezinguquko ezenhlalo-zokuthanda izwe ezaqala eRussia eminyakeni yamuva.
Eqinisweni, uhlelo lweMaidan ekugcineni lwangcwatshwa ngesikhathi sokuthathwa komthethosisekelo, kepha abagqugquzeli bancamela ukubonwa. Ngeke bazithobe iziphetho futhi baqhubekele phambili.
Lokhu kungachazwa njengenhlangano engeneme: emazweni lapho amandla e-Pro-Western National Liberols (eza emandleni futhi ngenxa yamaqhude) apholile, azolahlekelwa yila mandla. Ukuphikiswa maqondana nezinqubomgomo zawo kuzoqinisa futhi kukhulume ngokusobala, ukubona enye indlela kwezepolitiki yaseRussia kanye nokuqina kwe-Eurasian. Ngokungangabazeki, sisazobona ubunzima bezepolitiki e-Ukraine, njengoba kwenzeka enkulukazi engaphumeleli e-Eurasia - kwafika ukuphikiswa okungokwaseNtshonalanga eRussia e-Fiasco. Lokhu kushintsha ukuqondanisa kwamabutho, ngomqondo wokuthi ikamu lama- "Colour Revolutions" liya ngokuya liba buthaka. Waphosa izinsiza ezinkulu empini yesilayidi leso simo eRussia, futhi akazange athole lutho.
Vasily Koltashov, inhloko yesikhungo se-Political Economic Research Institute of New Society