Okokuqala, akudingekile ukunaka ithonya yombiko we-february wokuqashwa e-USA ngamanani egolide. Khohlwa ngakho, ngoba, okungenzeka, lokhu kungumthelela, njengoba kusho ikhanda likaJerome Powell, lizoba nesikhashana.
Ngisebenzisa le nkulumo, njengoba powell isebenzisa ukuveza ukungakhathali kwazo mayelana nokwanda kwamanani emnothweni, okusabhekene nemiphumela yeCondemic Covil-19.
NgoLwesine, emcimbini ohlelwe nguWall Street Journal, inhloko ye-Fed yathi kunomehluko phakathi kwecala elilodwa lentengo elikhuphuka kanye nokwenyuka kwamanani ezinzile. Wabe esenezela ukuthi ukusheshiswa kwe-inflation kungakuthinta ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Umbono kaPowell ngokubona kwamandla emali esikhashana (kanye nokuqiniseka kwakhe ukuthi i-United States ngeke ibuyele esimweni somsebenzi omkhulu kulo nyaka noma esikhathini esizayo esiseduze) kwaholela ekukhuphukeni kwesivuno samabhondi kahulumeni wase-US, ikakhulukazi, inzuzo "ireferensi" izibopho ezineminyaka engu-10 ubudala. Ngasikhathi sinye rose nedola.
Ngasikhathi sinye, amanani esitoko eWall Street ancipha ngenxa yokukhathazeka kwabatshalizimali mayelana nokuthi amasheya abizayo enkampani yezobuchwepheshe efana ne-Apple (i-Microsoft (NASDAQ: I-MSFT) ne-Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) agcwele.
Amanani egolide ancibilikisa kancane amasonto amabili edlule, awela ngisho nangemuva kokuwa emakethe yamasheya, yize iqiniso lokuthi igolide libhekwa njengethuluzi lokukhunga i-inflation. UMengameli wase-US uJoseph Bayden ekwabiweni kwephakheji yosizo emnothweni ngenani lama- $ 1.9 trillion aqinisekiswe ukuthi avunyelwe yiSenethi. Ngenxa yalokhu, ukuntuleka kwesabelomali sase-US kuzokhula, futhi isilinganiso sesikweletu sangaphandle ku-GDP sizokwanda. Zombili lezi zinto zithandeka ngamanani egolide, kepha zombili azinakwa.
Isizathu salokhu sinjengokulandelayo: UPowell waqeda ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi le-US ngaphansi kobuholi bakhe lizovimba ngokushesha ukuthengwa kwezibopho zikahulumeni ukuthi kuvikele ukukhula kwezinzuzo zabo. Vele uPowell ukholelwa ukuthi ukucindezela kwamanani okuvela e-United States kulo nyaka kuzoba isikhathi. Ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, kuyathandeka ngamanani egolide. Igama elithi "umthamo" laba ngomunye wezintandokazi ekhanda le-Fed on the PANFEROBHER EPOCH. Emva kwenyanga edlule wazinika ithuba ezintathu ukusho ukuthi ngeke kuthathe isinyathelo ngokuphendula izici zesikhashana kwezomnotho.
Ithonya lemininingwane ekuqasheni kweGolide lizoba nesikhathi
Ukulandela umqondo ofanayo, ngicela ukuthi ungacabangi ngoLwesihlanu lombiko we-february of february e-United States, uma ufuna ukunquma ukuqondiswa (noma, okubaluleke kakhulu, okuyi- "ngezansi") Manje kudayiwe ngo- $ 1600-1700 i-eunce ngayinye. Imiphumela yalo mbiko ibizothi i-Powell, izodlula kuphela ngemuva komnotho ojwayelekile, osafuna ukubuyela emsebenzini ojwayelekile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kusenezinye izinto eziningi ezizobe zichazwa ngesimo sezulu ezimpahleni eziyingozi nezivikela (uma kuphela igolide elisabhekwa njengempahla evikelayo, engangingabaza inyanga edlule).
Ngokusobala, inani lemisebenzi e-United States ngoFebhuwari lizokhula, okuyisici esingesihle samanani egolide. Noma kunjalo, akufanele sikhohlwe ukuthi imisebenzi yiyona nzima ukudala emnothweni, kanti okwedlule kuvame ukwehlisa ngenxa yokunciphisa imisebenzi. Yiba yilokho njengoba kungenzeka, ngoDisemba, inani lemisebenzi e-United States lancipha ngezinkulungwane ezingama-227, futhi ngoJanuwari inyuke ngamakhulu angama-49 kuze kube yilapho inkomba ethembekile kuze kube yilapho inkomba ethembekileyo yamanani egolide.
Njengoba azikho izici ezithembekile ezinokwethenjelwa kakhulu zokubikezela amanani egolide, khona-ke ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe kuzosiza ngesimo sezulu?
Ababikezeli abaningi, okubandakanya nami, kunamaphuzu ahlukahlukene okubukwa ngensimbi ephuzi (ngizosindisa i-dessert yakho).
Ake siqale ngombono weSunila Kumara Dicita, umhlaziyi we-SK Dixit Charting. Izimali ze-HEDEDE zisebenzisa amanani entengo egolide esikhundleni samanani empumuzo njengenkombandlela yokuthola amandla okwengeziwe. UDixt ukholelwa ukuthi uma kwenzeka kubuyela emuva kwemakethe ekuqondisweni kokukhula, inani lentengo yegolide lizofika ku- $ 1843, futhi esimweni sokuwa kwalo ku-REPS ku- $ 1460.
Amagrafu anikezela nge-SK Dixit Charting
Igolide lifaka amadolo akhe
Ngokusho kukaDicita, igolide laphenduka la emadolweni nasemivebeni:
"Asifikanga phansi. Izinga elinokwethenjelwa lokuxhaswa liyisilinganiso esihamba ngezinsuku eziyi-100 samashejuli wamasonto onke, atholakala ku- $ 1646. Lokhu kusekelwa kwanele ukukhuphula amanani egolide ngo- $ 100, $ 150 kanye nama- $ 200.
Ireferensi Rebound kusuka ezingeni elibucayi lokusekelwa u- $ 1646 liyakwazi ukubuyisa inani legolide lokuhlola isilinganiso sokuhamba esinyakazo samasonto angama-50 esimweni se- $ 1790 kanye nesilinganiso esihamba ngesonto samasonto angama-20 ngenani lama- $ 1843. "
Kodwa-ke, ngokusho kwe-Dicita, ukulinganiselwa kuphela ezingeni elingenhla kwama- $ 1868 kungaba isibonakaliso mayelana nokuguqulwa okuthembekile kwemakethe yegolide phezulu, okusho ukuthi amanani aqhamuka ezansi.
Ngaphandle kwalokho, kukhona ubungozi bama-oscillations amasha, okokuqala for "Bulls", bese kuthi "amabhere":
"Ukwahlulela ukwehla okukhona nokuphelele kwamanani egolide," iBearish "Trend ingafinyelela inani lesilinganiso esinyakazo esinezinyanga ezingama-50 endaweni engama- $ 1530, bese amanani entengo yensimbi ephuzi azofika ngokwesilinganiso esihamba ngesonto engama-200 ngenani lama- $ 1460. Uma lokhu kwenzeka, kuzokwakheka phansi okubili. Lokhu okuphansi okuphindwe kabili kuzoholela ekukhuleni okuqhumayo okuzovusa umhlangano olandelayo ukuze uthukuthele maxima. "
Ngaphandle kokubuyiselwa kwanoma yikuphi ukubuyiselwa ezivela kulokho okunjalo, udinga ukukhumbula into eyodwa - ukuwa ngentengo yegolide kuze kufike ku- $ 1460 cishe ngokuphelele amazinga azuzwe egagasi le-Covid-19. Ngo-Mashi 2020, amanani entengo egolide awela ku- $ 1451.50 ngaphambi kokuqala ama-epic rally izinyanga ezine nengxenye, ngenxa yokuthi amanani egolide akhuphuke ngo- $ 2073.41 abhalwe ngo-Agasti.
Ngokusho komhlaziyi we-FXSTreet we-Dummy Mehta, amanani egolide ahlolwa ngumngcele ophansi we-wedward wedge, iphuzu lokusekelwa elikuleliveli elingu- $ 1687.
Ku-imeyili yayo kumakhasimende, imibiko yamawele:
"Ukuqinisekisa ukwephulwa, kuyadingeka ukuthi ikhandlela lamahora amane livale ngaphansi kwaleli nani. Izovula indlela eya ekwehleni kobuncane bukaJuni 2020, abalotshwe endaweni engu- $ 1671. "
UJeffrey Holly, umhlaziyi wemakethe oholayo we-Asia-Pacific Division of Oanda, aphawula ukuthi amanani egolide asongelayo alinganiselayo ngaphezulu kwezinga le-Fibonacci Support 61.80%, e-Stap $ 1689
"Uma ekugcineni kokuhweba kweseshini yokugcina yokuhweba yesonto, amanani egolide azonikela ngaphansi kwaleli zinga, lizoba isibonakaliso esibalulekile sobuchwepheshe senkambiso ye-" bearish ". Kulokhu, isisekelo sizovela ngokuncipha okwengeziwe ngamanani egolide ngesonto elizayo kuya ezingeni lama- $ 1600. "
Kushicilelwe ngoLwesine, "Ukubuyekezwa kwemizwa yamakhasimende" ye-IG Group uthe i-coeffied yezikhundla ezinde ze-Net of Gold Provers yakhula ngo-5.85 (85.41% wezikhundla ezinde). Imvamisa, leli nani likhuluma ngokuvumela umkhondo we- "bearish".
Ukubuyekezwa kwe-IG kusho:
"Njengomthetho, umbono wethu uhlukile ngombono weningi, futhi iqiniso lokuthi abathengisi bakhetha izikhundla ezinde, baphakamisa ukuthi amanani egolide angaqhubeka ehle. Abahwebi bavame ukukhetha izikhundla ezinde kunayizolo nangesonto eledlule. Ngakho-ke, inhlanganisela yezikhundla zamanje kanye nezinguquko zakamuva zisinikeza ithuba lokukhuluma ngomkhuba ophambene aqinile ekunciphisweni kwentengo ngokuya ngokutholwa. "
Ukuhlaziywa Kwezobuchwepheshe - "Ukuthengisa Ngentshiseko"
Ngokombono wami, akukho lutho olumangazayo leso simo sezulu sezobuchwepheshe se-Firm.com ngekusasa legolide ngegolide ekuhlukaniseni i-New York Commodity Exchange Exchange sikhala ngokuthi "ukuthengisa ngenkuthalo".
Amanani ezinkontileka zegolide kumele aqhubeke nomkhuba we- "bearish". Ukubonakala kokusekelwa kwamazinga amathathu e-Fibonacci kubikezelwe: $ 1690.31, $ 1682.89 no- $ 1669.30.
Uma kwenzeka imakethe ephendukela ekukhuleni, amazinga amathathu okumelana emazingeni e-Fibonacci abikezelwe: $ 1716.29, $ 1714.31 naku- $ 1737.30.
Kunoma yikuphi, iphuzu lokuguqulwa kabusha likunani lama- $ 1703.30
Ngokuhambisana nokunye ukubikezela kobuchwepheshe, sikukhuthaza ukuthi ulandele izifiso zethu zangaphakathi, kodwa ukuze uzihlole ngemigomo eyisisekelo yokuhweba futhi, uma kunesidingo, yenza ushintsho.
Ukuzikhulula. UBararan Krisnan unikeza imibono yabanye abahlaziyi ukuhambisa ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe okuhlukahlukene. Akuyona umnikazi wezinto zokwakha kanye nokuphepha okubukezwa ku-athikili.
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