Imodeli yasendulo yephothifoliyo yamathuluzi wezezimali awutshayelwa umtshalizimali wangasese eminyakeni engu-30 edlule ibibhekwa njengefomula "60/40": ama-40% amasheya. Ngokwezibalo zokuphathwa kwempahla ye-JPMorgan, isivuno sonyaka esijwayelekile sephothifoliyo enjalo ngo-1999-2018. ifakwe ku-5.2% ngamadola. Kepha eminyakeni eyi-5-10 elandelayo, ngesikhathi somjikelezo webhizinisi elisha, iphothifoliyo enjalo yemodeli izokwazi ukuhlinzeka ngemali encane kakhulu, futhi izoletha ukulahleka nhlobo, izindlu ezaziwayo zokutshala imali zibalile. Ingabe abatshalizimali bathole ithuba lokwenza imali ezimpahleni zezezimali ngaphezulu?
KwenzenjaniEnhliziyweni yezibalo zokulawulwa kwempahla ye-JPMorgan Beka imodeli yephothifoliyo, ama-60% awo atshalwe kwi-S & P 500 Index kanye ne-40% - ku-US Bloombergs Index Index. Isikhathi esikhethiwe sibonisa ukuhlaziya kwezimali kanye neziphetho, ngoba kuhlanganisa okubili okunzima kakhulu ezimakethe zesitoko sonyaka, lapho umhlaba we-MSCI uhlanganyela kakhulu inkomba yehle kakhulu: 2008 (-8.2%) no-2018 (-8.2%). Ngaphandle kwalokhu, iphothifoliyo yeDollar eModeli yayivumela isilinganiso sokuthola u-5.2% ngonyaka.
Umtshalizimali ojwayelekile uthole okuncane kakhulu: Ngokusho kwe-DALBARS, isivuno samaphothifoliyo wangempela ngokwesilinganiso esilinganiselwe ku-1.9% ngonyaka. Izibalo ze-DALBARS zithembele ezingxenyeni zokuthenga zanyanga zonke kanye nokuthengiswa kwemali yokutshala imali ngabatshalizimali abazimele baseMelika. Umehluko onjalo uyachazwa, okokuqala, ukuthi abatshalizimali abazimele babandakanyeka ekuhwebeni bagxile ekutholeni inzuzo yesikhashana, okuyisu elide yindlela ende. Kodwa-ke, lesi yisihloko sengxoxo ehlukile.
Yini OkulandelayoAmanani entengo ahlukane neqiniso. Manje akunakwenzeka ukubikezela inzuzo yokutshalwa kwezimali kwezinyanga eziyi-6 kuya kwezi-12 - izinkomba eziyisisekelo zezinkampani zithinteka kancane ngenxa yokutshalwa kwezimali okufushane. Kepha nakanjani bakhombisa imali ephansi ephansi emthonjeni iminyaka eyi-10. Model izibikezelo zesikhathi eside zemiholo ephakathi nendawo kusuka ekutshalweni kwezimali ezitokisini ezimakethe zamazwe ahlukahlukene kusuka kuma-analytists amanani avela ku-Analytical Boutiqued Cheetal Cela, i-GMO kanye nabanye abanikeza isivuno esilindelekile ngonyaka. Futhi ukukhuphuka kwemakethe yesitoko kuhamba esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, abatshalizimali abangaphansi bazothola leminyaka eyishumi ezayo.
Ngezibopho zimbi kakhulu. Isivuno sangempela (sithatha ukwehla kwamandla emali) kwamabhondi ezinkampani ngokulinganiswa kwemali kwezomnotho ezimbili ezihola phambili, i-United States neJalimane sekube kubi. Ngamanye amagama, ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzo kunciphisa amandla okuthenga kwemali.
Esimweni esinjalo, iphothifoliyo yakudala "60/40" ingakhombisa imali engemihle yokuqongelela yangempela eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo. Inkampani edume ngokuphathwa i-GMO ibikezelela ukuthi leminyaka eyishumi izolahleka "ngephothifoliyo enjalo
Imodeli ehlanganiswe umtshalizimali onegunya uJohn Hussman, eyaziwa ngendlela yayo yokutshala imali, ingama-60% amasheya, ama-30% ama-bond kanye ne-10% Cash - enikeza isivuno esingase sibe ngu-1.7% ngonyaka.
Lo mbono ongathandeki ngumphumela wobumbano womjikelezo webhizinisi omusha ezimakethe zesitoko. Ngaphezulu kweminyaka emi-2-3 sizobona izehlakalo ezintathu, ezizobe zimbi kakhulu kuzo zonke izigaba zezimpahla:
- Ukukhula kwe-inflation.
- Amanani wenzalo.
- Ukuqedwa kwemijovo ye-liquidity ezimakethe zesitoko ngamabhange aphakathi.
Abatshalizimali ngabantu abangakulungele ukubekezelela inzuzo eseduze yamaphothifoliyo asendulo eminyakeni ezayo kungadingeka ukuthi aphendukele kokuhlangenwe nakho kochwepheshe. Abaningi babo bayaqonda ukuthi izibopho zizokhombisa zimbi kakhulu kunezinye izimpahla zekilasi, ngakho-ke zinciphisa isabelo sezibopho ezifuywayo zivumela ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezimali kwezimali.
Omunye wabatshalizimali bezikhungo abahlonishwayo - i-University of Yale University Edomement - iminyaka engama-20, kusukela ngoJuni 2000 kuya kuJuni 20 20, yathola imali ephakathi yonyaka eqoqekayo ka-9.9%. Kumodeli yephothifoliyo yesisekelo ngo-2021, isisindo esikhulu kunazo zonke (64.5%) sibalwa ngamanye amathuluzi ahlukile, okuthi:
23.5% - Amasu aphezulu wezezimali ezihlanganisiwe (amasu okubuya aphelele). Lokhu kuvame ukuba yibhasikidi yezimali zokutshala imali, kufaka phakathi imali ye-hedge okuhloswe ngayo ukuthola imali enhle kuzo zonke izimo: ukukhula, ukuwa noma ukumaketha. Imvamisa, leli bhasikidi linokuxinana okuncane kunephothifoliyo yesitoko sendabuko, kanye nomdwebo ophansi wezindleko eziphansi ngesikhathi sokuwa kwemakethe;
23.5% - I-Startups (inhlokodolobha ye-Venture, share in the photolio);
17.5% - Izimali ezihlanganisiwe zezimali kanye nokutholwa kokutholwa ngokusetshenziswa kwehlombe (i-Reloutout eboshwe, i-LBO).
Abanye abatshalizimali abaningi abaqeqeshiwe bakhulisa ukusetshenziswa kwamanye amathuluzi okutshala imali. Manje isivuno esilindelwe esilindelekile Show nemikhiqizo kanye nezimali ezitshalayo ezimali kwemali yezezimali ezingaba ngu-7% ngombono wezinyanga eziyi-12. Eminyakeni embalwa edlule, ukubolekwa kwemali (isikweletu sangasese) kuya ngokuya kuthandwe - kungenye indlela yamabhange e-bureaucratic, ukulawulwa okuqiniswa njalo ngonyaka. Inzuzo elindelekile ingu-5% ngonyaka ozayo.
Ukutshalwa kwemali okunjalo akuyona eyakho konke: Ithikithi lokungena libiza kakhulu. Ngezinkokhelo zethage, kuqala nge- $ 1 million. Kepha ekutshalweni kwemali ezigabeni zokuqala kukhona ama- $ 10,000-500,000 wokutshala imali. Konke kuya kuphrojekthi. Ungathola izikweletu zekhwalithi ezifuywayo ezimele, ezithathwa ehhovisi lenani elivela ku- $ 100,000. Kumaphothifoliyo wabatshalizimali abacebile abacebile, isabelo sokutshalwa kwemali okungokwehlukile, ukutshala imali enkulukazi (ukuqala) - cishe ngo-5 %.
Ezimakethe zesitoko zamazwe omhlaba, ngombono wami, ophumelela kakhulu kuzoba isu lokutshala imali elisebenzayo, eliqondiswe ku:
- Izinkampani ezinobuchwepheshe obuphezulu ezinobuchwepheshe bokuphumelela kanye nokukhula okusheshayo kwenzuzo (amasheya okukhula);
- Izinkampani ezinemodeli yebhizinisi esimeme nenzuzo ezinzile, ezivuselelwa ekuthuthukisweni kwebhizinisi (amakhompiyutha);
- Izinkampani zethula ubuchwepheshe obusha eziguqula ukwakheka kwezimboni ngazinye kanye nezomnotho (ukuphazamiseka).
Kepha ngabo bonke abatshalizimali, kusanconywa ukuhambisana nemithetho emithathu ebalulekile yokutshala imali ephumelelayo:
- Akukhathalekile ukuthi uhola malini, - Impumelelo yokutshalwa kwemali ukugwema ukulahleka okukhulu okungaba yinhlekelele yephothifoliyo yakho kanye nezezimali zakho.
- Kubalulekile ukugwema noma yimiphi imikhiqizo yokutshala imali, izinhlelo zokuphathwa kwemali, lapho ungaziqondi ngokuphelele zonke izimfanelo zensimbi. Yini ngempela onayo? Imali yenza kanjani imali kuleli thuluzi? Yiziphi izingozi? Kuyini I-Liquidity? Kanye nezinye izinto eziningi zobungcweti ezidinga ukubhekwa lapho izixazululo zokutshala imali.
- Kuyadingeka ukuthola ileveli yakho yengozi. I-amplitude yama-oscillations eMakethe yaseRussia Stock, ngaphandle kweminyaka emibi (2008, 2014, 2020), cishe amamaki acishe abe ngu-30% - cishe ama-10%. Uma ungakakulungeli ukuthatha i-amplitude yama-oscillations anjalo, kusho ukuthi isabelo samasheya esakhiweni sezimpahla zakho akufanele sidlule ku-10%, kanye nesabelo sokutshalwa kwemali okulondoloziwe (idiphozi, i-Real Estate) kumele kube ngaphezulu. Uma umtshalizimali ethatha ubungozi, okungenhla kwezinga lawo elintofontofo, lapho-ke ngokubambisana kwemakethe, kuvame ukuthatha izixazululo ezingalungile futhi kuvame ukwenza amaphutha wezezimali lapho adinga ukuthengwa.
Ngifisa konke ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphumelelayo!
Umbono womlobi kungenzeka angahambisani nesikhundla se-vetimes Edition.