Ngabe inqubomgomo ezondla iphinde ivuse imali ezimakethe ezivelayo, kaningi ngawo ezinhlafunweni, kuneziqhumane zokunganeliseki wasobala nokuthi kungani amazwe amaningi athuthukile eshiye intela yengcebo: Into esemqoka kumabhulogi e-Economist.
Le ndatshana yashicilelwa kuwebhusayithi ye-ecoonc
Uma ukusheshisa kwe-inflation kusenza ukuthi i-Fed ikhuphule ukubheja, ukuqubuka ekukhuliseni izimakethe kuzoqina ikakhulukazi, kuxwayiswa nguHarvard Kenneth Rogoffs. Ngo-2013, ukwethuka ezimakethe zezimali (i-tantrum yezezimali) kwaqala ngemuva kokuthi i-FedRev yaqala ukufaka amasiginali ngenqubomgomo yokusonga okuzayo yokucima imali. Manje i-Fed yenza konke okusemandleni ukukholisa imakethe eqinisweni lokuthi isikhathi eside ngeke siqinise inqubomgomo, futhi lokhu kunesibopho esinengqondo impela, okunezikweletu eziphakemeyo kanye nokukhishwa okungezansi, ngaphezu kwe-2% inzuzo eyengeziwe kunokulimala. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kusekude kakhulu ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi ephansi: Ngokuya ngezilinganiso ze-IMF, kusukela ngoJanuwari 2021, bekuyizigidi eziyi-9 ezimatasa e-United 2220, kodwa uma i-United States iphumelela ekwenzeni uhlelo lwayo lokugoma futhi Ngehlobo 2021. Umuthi wokugoma uzothola iningi labantu futhi kuzokwazi ukunqanda ukusakazeka kwezinto ezintsha zeCoronavirus, iFedreeVE ingaphinda ibuye kabusha amathuba okukhulisa amanani. Ngenkathi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhlala kuphansi, kepha ukuqhekeka okubukhali kwesidingo esinqunyelwe kungasheshisa ukukhuphuka kwamanani. "Ukuvuselelwa kwezomnotho akunakugwenywa, kepha uzosiza ekudedeleni ama-mongs hhayi kuyo yonke imikhumbi," kubhala uRogoff.
Ukuthuthukisa ezomnotho kuzophela ubhubhane hhayi ngendlela engcono kakhulu. Iningi labo lizothola imijovo yokugoma ngemuva kwamazwe athuthukile, futhi izindlela zokulwa nezinkinga emazweni asathuthuka zazinesizotha kakhulu - ngokwesilinganiso, ama-gdp kuphela we-GDP afinyelela kumaphesenti we-GDP acishe abe ngu-13% . Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezothuthukisa ezomnotho manje zinomthwalo ophakeme kakhulu wesikweletu kunangaphambili kwenhlekelele yezimali yomhlaba - zombili emkhakheni wombuso kanye nazimele, ezenza zibe sengozini enkulu. Uma amanani emali entuthuko emazweni athuthukile ayengekho eduze kwe-zero, ezomnotho eziningi ezithuthukisayo ngabe sezinazinkinga ezinkulu, kepha ngo-2020 kwenzeke izindawo ezizenzakalelayo eziningi ezenzakalelayo: i-Argentina, e-Ecuador, e-Ecunon. Futhi manje esinye sezinto eziyingozi enkulu - i-tapter tantrum 2.0, ikhombisa i-rogoff.
Ubhubhane wandisa amathuba okuxolelwa kwezenhlalo kanye nokwenza ngcono ukukhishwa komphakathi, ochwepheshe be-IMF abasunguliwe ocwaningweni olusha, abalusho nge-blog yenhlangano. Kusukela isikhathi senhlupho kaJustinian maphakathi nekhulu le-VI. Ngo-1918, umkhuhlane waseSpain ngo-1918 walandela amashifu athile ezenhlalo: ukukhuphuka kokunganeliseki kohulumeni, ukukhula kwamandla kagesi phakathi kwamaqembu ezenhlalo ahlukahlukene, izinkinga zezepolitiki kanye nokushintshwa kohlelo lomphakathi. Naphezu kwezibonelo eziningi ezihlukile, izilinganiso zobuningi zokuxhumeka kobhubhane kanye nokunganeliseki emphakathini, ababhali baboshwe. Ukugcwalisa lesi sikhala, basebenzise ozakwabo abavela e-IMF Index, ngokusekelwe emibikweni yabezindaba ngokugxekwayo bakahulumeni, futhi baqhathanisa ukubaluleka kwayo ngedatha emazweni ahlukahlukene kusukela kwa-1985 kuze kube manje. Ukuhlaziywa kwakhombisa ukuthi emazweni lapho kudabuka khona izifo ezingokotshani kaningi futhi zazinzima kakhulu, imibhikisho yayivame ukwenzeka. Phambilini, ochwepheshe be-IMF bafinyelela esiphethweni esifanayo ngokuhlaziya imiphumela yobhubhane emazweni ayi-133 ukusuka ngo-2001 kuya ku-2018.
Umphumela wobhubhane ovela emaphuzwini okubukwa kwemizwa yomphakathi ungowesibili, ababhali bagcizelela. Ngakho-ke, esikhathini esifushane, ukunganeliseki kwezenhlalo kubukeke: Ngenkathi ukutheleleka kuvuthayo, inhlangano yemihlangano eminingi inzima, ngaphezu kwalokho, ubhubhane lungaba nomthelela ekuhlobiseni komphakathi. Okokugcina, imibuso egunyaziwe ingasebenzisa izifo eziwumshayabhuqe ngezintshisakalo zazo - ukuqinisa amandla azo futhi icindezele ukuphikisana, ababhali babhala. Ngo-2020, kwakunemibhikisho embalwa erekhode emhlabeni, ababhali bakhombisa, okungukuthi, i-Covion-19 isahambisana nenhlekelele yomlando ngokwehla kwezinye izifo. Kepha esikhathini esiphakathi, amathuba okunganeliseki kwezenhlalo ngemuva kokukhuphuka kobhubhane, ababhali basungule: Izinkinga ezingezinhle kakhulu zona ziba isihloko sokulungiswa komphakathi, ngaphambi kokuba kube nokugqashuka kokutheleleka Ezikhungweni, ukuphathwa kwekhwalithi ephansi, ubuphofu kanye nokungalingani.
Inani ledijithali yokunakekelwa kwezempilo, izinto ezicatshangelwe kanye nokwazisa amaqembu ahlukene ezenhlalo - uprofesa we-University of Ben-Gurion RAS Balisiser e-Blog of Economics atshela ukuthi kanjani umholi wezwe ekugomeni eCovid-19. Isabelo sabantu abathola ukugonywa kwa-Israyeli manje sesiphakeme kakhulu emhlabeni - ngoFebhuwari 1, umthamo wokuqala wokugoma lapho u-58%, futhi esigabeni seminyaka engu-70-79 ubudala - 90%. Abasebenzi abadala nabasempilweni babeyizigaba zokuqala ezibaluleke kakhulu, kepha imigomo kancane kancane yatholakala kubo bonke abantu. Ngenxa yedijithali yokunakekelwa kwezempilo, u-Israyeli unedatha eyenele yezokwelapha ukuthuthukisa uhlelo oluyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu lwezigaba ezibaluleke kakhulu zokugoma, umbhali ubhala, kepha ukukhetha kwenziwa ngejubane, hhayi ukubhekelwa phansi. Kepha ukudilizwa kwe-digitalization kwasiza ukunciphisa ukulahleka kwemithamo yomuthi wokugoma: ngemuva kokuphila impilo yomuthi ekhawulelwe futhi, uma imithamo eyengeziwe yaqhubeka, umtholampilo uthumele imiyalezo ngesimemo sokugoma wonke umuntu owayeseduzane. Ngenxa yalokho, ukulahleka okubangelwa yimithamo engaphansi kwe-0.01%.
Kuyiqiniso, u-Israyeli unezinzuzo eziningi zenhloso ekugomeni, i-balimar iyabhala: Inani labantu lincane (izigidi eziyi-9 abantu) kanye nokugxiliswe endaweni, futhi abasebenzi bezempilo banolwazi emcimbini wezimo eziphuthumayo. Noma kunjalo, umkhankaso wolwazi ocabangayo wawudingeka, ngoba enye yezinselelo, njengasemazweni amaningi, kwakuwukungathembani kwabantu kanye ne-diadication. Ikakhulu le nkinga isemiphakathini evaliwe: Ngakho-ke, kweminye imiphakathi ye-Ultra-tali, amahemuhemu asabalalisa lowo ukugoma kungaholela ekungeneni kokuzala. Umgomo oyinhloko womkhankaso wolwazi wawusobala: Abaholi bezombusazwe nabezenkolo bagonywa bukhoma, futhi ukucaciswa mayelana nokugoma kwaguqulwa kumasiko emiphakathi ehlukahlukene, kufaka phakathi i-Ultra-ask. Umkhankaso wolwazi naye wabandakanya abaholi bale miphakathi.
Abasekeli bokwethulwa kwentela engcebweni kufanele bakhunjulwe ukuthi eminyakeni yamuva nje, amazwe amaningi athuthukile amemeze ngamabomu, ukhumbuze uThimothewu Taylor, umlobi we-Econdo Economist Blog. Ukwethulwa kwentela yokuceba kusenkathi yomkhankaso wokhetho kamongameli kwaxoxwa ngenkuthalo e-United States, futhi manje lo mbono wawuse-ajenda nase-UK - sekuvele kusebenza njengeKhomishini ekhethekile ngentela yengcebo. Olunye ucwaningo lweKhomishini lunikelwe okuhlangenwe nakho kwentela yentela emazweni athuthukile. Ngakho-ke, ngo-1990, amazwe angu-12 o-OECD (wonke - i-European) ayenentela yengcebo, kepha ekuqaleni konyaka we-FINNE, iSweden, i-Luxembourg kanye neNetherlands yenqabe intela. I-Iceland ikhanselele intela yokuceba ngonyaka ka-2006, kepha yabe isilethule okwesikhashana ngo-2010-2014. Njengesilinganiso esiphuthumayo se-anti-grisis. Lesi sakamuva kwakunguFrance: Ngo-2018, wangena esikhundleni sentela engcebweni yentela kwimpahla ebizayo. Ingqikithi ka-2020, intela engcebweni isesimweni esimsulwa isebenza eNorway, eSwitzerland naseSpain.
It is ikakhulukazi ukubunqamula intela ingcebo, ngoba izindlela zawo zazilotshiwe akukhetha kusukela umbono namaqoqo, nekghono zokuphatha - ngokwesibonelo, inzuzo etholakale noma ezibizayo ingcebo intela. Ngakho-ke, esinye sezizathu esenza ukuthi iSwitzerland igcina imali engcebweni, eqinisweni lokuthi akukho ukukhuphuka kwentela yentela ezweni, nasezinhlokweni eziningi, noma izipho ezikhokhiswa intela. Inkinga evamile yamazwe yenqabile ukuceba intela kwakuyinhlanganisela yezimali eziphansi kanye nobunzima bokuphatha. Ngakho-ke, amarisidi wentela angaba ngu-0.2-0.3% we-GDP imali engenayo ephelele ku-40% ye-GDP. Ezimweni eziningi, intela yengcebo yathatha inqwaba yokungafani nokubhuka. Kwamanye amazwe, le ntela yabekwa icala kuphela nge-super-toging: ngokwesibonelo, eFrance, amakhaya akhishwe ngezimpahla zizonke ama-euro ayizigidi eziyi-1,3, ukuze kuthi ngo-360,000. Ngaphezu kwalokho, intela yayivame ukungaphansi kwezimali ezihlotshiswe njengokugcina impesheni, inani lezindlu lidonswa esisekelweni sentela, lapho kubakhokhi bentela, khona ubucwebe bentela Okomusa, imali yethemba izizukulwane ezizayo, impahla yengqondo. Ngenxa yalokho, abantu abaningi abavikelekile bangaqasha amabutho ommeli abasize ukusabalalisa ingcebo ngendlela yokunciphisa izinkokhelo zentela, futhi ngenxa yezindleko ezivame ukumbozwa.