I-Russia imele usongo kuwo wonke amalungu e-NATO, cabanga ngePentagon, kepha i-United States ihlose ukuyiphoqa ukuthi "iphendule ngezenzo ezingenabungozi nezinolaka." NgoFebhuwari 16, uNobhala-Jikelele we-NATO u-Stoltenberg jikelele wathi yikho konke ukuthi inhlangano ibikulungele ukubhekana neRussia. Into engenamthetho ayikhawulwanga ekubonisweni ngamazwi - Umfelandawonye ukhulisa ubukhona bezempi phakathi kwemingcele yaseRussia. Isiqondisi esisemqoka ngasikhathi sinye yi-Eastern Europe: Amazwe eBaltic amemezele umgomo oyinhloko we- "Russian ulango". Indlela uNato azosizo- "Avikele Kanjani" Isifunda, Yazisa Uchwepheshe Oyinhloko Lesikhungo Sokufundwa Kwendawo Yesikhungo Se-Baltic Region Institute of the Baltic Federal University. I.Kanta yuri zvereev.
Isitatimende sokuthi iRussia ilungiselela futhi ecaleni elifanele lizokwenza ulaka oluhlomile ngokumelene ne-Baltic States ukuze lubafake ekwakhekeni kwabo futhi, uma kungenzeka, khombisa ukuthi i-NATO Impi, uma engekho Ngenezela, yindawo evamile e-Casporic yanamuhla yaseNtshonalanga i-Rhetoric futhi yasebenza njenge-axiom engadingi ubufakazi. Ukuphonsa kancane ngemuva kokutholwa kweLithuania, iLatvia kanye ne-Estonia kuya eNorth Atlantic Alliance ngo-2004, lo mkhankaso we-Propaganda waqubuka namandla amasha kusukela ngo-2014 ngemuva kokubuyela eRussia eCrimea naseSevastopol.
Lo mcimbi, okwakungumphumela oqondile we-US ophefumulelwe kanye ne-EU yesikhuthazo sombuso eKiev, akahlangene neBaltic, futhi abuhlangene nakwezempi, akukho lutho esifundeni saseBaltic. Noma kunjalo, kwatholakala isizathu esivumelekile sokuqinisa nokwandisa ubukhona bezempi e-United States naseNato lapho. Ubuholi bamazwe eBaltic babhema "Karaul! Siseduze nokuhlasela! ", NoNato oholwa yi-United States, kunjalo," sasisiza. " Nokho, iRussia ayizange ivele empini, futhi ubufakazi bengcindezi yezempi yaseRussia emazweni aseBaltic kwadingeka ukuba incikise ngomunwe ngomunwe.
Kepha leli cala seliqediwe, futhi indawo yeBaltic yimizamo yase-US naseNato ivela kwesinye isikhathi izifunda zaseYurophu ezakhiwe kakhulu futhi zibembisana phakathi kokubambisana phakathi kweRussia enomakhelwane bayo ngomgomo we- "bonke ababhekene neRussia" Futhi e- "Powder Barrel of Europe" A La Balkan of the Farm of the Century eledlule.
Eminyakeni eyalandela, impikiswano yokuhlela ukuvikela izifunda zeBaltic kusuka "ekuhlaselweni yiRussia" (ithuba likabani elingabuzwanga futhi lingafakwanga) laba ngenye yezihloko ezithandwa kakhulu emphakathini wezempi waseNtshonalanga maqondana ne-Flange NATO . Kuyacaca ukuthi amapulani angempela eNato ayimfihlo [1], futhi kungaba yinto emangazayo ukulindela okuhlukile. Kodwa-ke, iziphakamiso zizwakale obala (lapho ngabheka khona ubuqiniso obukhulu obukhulu kakhulu ngenxa yokushicilela okulinganiselwe), kubonakala sengathi kusanikezwa umbono othile wokuthi i-United States ne-NATO bazothatha isinyathelo kanjani eBaltic States Futhi yimaphi amabutho nezikhali ze-Alliance angabonakala ngaphezu kwalezi zifundazwe (nasePoland elingumakhelwane). Okuqukethwe kunikezelwe kulokhu, ingxenye yokuqala yayo emelelwa ukunakwa kwakho.
Umbiko we-Rand Corporation
Ehlobo lango-2014 futhi entwasahlobo ka-2015, "ifektri" yomqondo "eyaziwa ngokuthi yi-Lald" yaseMelika "(Santa Monica, eCalifornia) yenziwe ngamamodeli (imidlalo yebhodi kumamephu) wokuhlasela kwe-russian kwamazwe aseBaltic. Imiphumela yayidumaza uNato: Kulesi simo, amabutho aseRussia afinyelela ezindaweni ezingaphansi kweRiga kanye (noma) amathali amahora angama-36-60 ngemuva kokuqala kobutha [2]. Imidlalo yezempi iqinisekisile ubuthakathaka obaziwa ngaphambili kwamabutho ama-Baltic States: Inombolo encane, ukuntuleka okunganele, ukuntuleka kwangempela kwezimoto ezihlomile (amathangi), ukuntuleka kwezinto eziphilayo nokuntuleka komoya ukuze kusetshenziswe izinhloso ngokuphakama okuphezulu. Isiphetho saphetha ngokuthi ukuvikela lokhu kuthuthukiswa kwemicimbi ye-NATO emaqenjini ayisikhombisa emazweni aseBaltic, kufaka phakathi ama-air aughter, asekelwa ngokwanele, azokwenziwa ngomoya, ukuvikela umoya namanye amayunithi okusekelwa.Futhi akuwona wonke la mabutho, ngokusho kwababhali balo mbiko, bekufanele ngabe athuthukile ngokusekelwe. Ngakho-ke, lapho usongo olusongelwayo, okungenani isonto lonke, uNato unesikhathi sokudlulisa umoya oya eBaltic State of American Paratroopers we-173rd Airborne Division kusuka North Carolina, futhi afanayo Izingxenye zezempi ezivela kwamanye amazwe e-NATO, kufaka phakathi i-United Kingdom naseFrance. Umlilo we-anti-Tank weselula unganikeza indiza yokuvusekela (enophephela emhlane) i-US Brigade esekelwe eJalimane. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izingxenye ezisindayo ezinezimoto ezihlomile zazidingeka. Lo mbiko uphakamise izinketho eziningana ezingenzeka: Ukuhlala njalo ukuhlonyiswa ngokuphelele nge-brigade emazweni aseBaltic; Hlinzeka ngokulungiswa kwezikhali kanye nemishini ePoland, amazwe aseBaltic noma eJalimane, futhi indawo yomuntu siqu ayodlulisela emoyeni lapho esesigabeni senhlekelele; Thembela ebukhoneni be-rotary noma basebenzise inhlanganisela ethile yezindlela ezingenhla.
Kumele kushiwo ukuthi imiphumela yocwaningo lweRand Corporation iye yagxeka ngokwanele. Ngakho-ke, ngokwesibonelo, umbhali waseLatvia Bens Latkovskis ngoMashi 2016 waphawula ukuthi lesi simo asinathemba kangako njengoba kukhonjisiwe kumbiko. Uveze ukuthi lapho amamodeli azange abhekwe noma anganele njengezinkinga zezinto zempi yaseRussia, amathuba okuvimbela ukulethwa kwamabhuloji amakhulu, lapho amabhuloho amaningi, lapho amachibi amaningi, amaxhaphozi kanye Imifula, amathuba okusebenzisa konke amandla we-Aliation we-Alliance (hhayi ukuhanjiswa, ukusatshalaliswa eduze kwesifunda saseBaltic eMpumalanga Yurophu (emidlalweni yamasosha amaRandi, ayizange Ukuphazamisa ukungezwani, ngaphezu kwalokho, izenzo zamasosha eLithuania nasekuzungeze isifunda saseKaliningrad ngokujwayelekile amamodeli athathwanga) njalonjalo.
Umbhali wabhala ukuthi iRussia akulungele ukumelana namazwe aseBaltic, futhi yize ukuzivikela kwazo kudinga kakhulu, noma ngaphandle kwalokhu, ukuthathwa kwalezi zimbutho zaseRussia bekungeke kube lula futhi kungabi buhlungu uma kwenzeka izinsiza zempi ezinazo.
Kepha, ngokusobala, umsebenzi weRand Corporation wawungekho ekuhlaziyweni kwezempi okunenhloso (shiya kubakaki ukuthi iRussia yayingeke ibambe izifunda zeBaltic bese ingangeni manje), kodwa ukwethusa umphakathi obanzi we Amathangi aseRussia ezindaweni ezingaphansi kweRiga noma ama-tallinn amahora angama-36-60 ngemuva kokuqala kwezobutha. Futhi ukuze lokhu kungenzeki, kucelwe ama-brigade alandelayo angeziwe ngokuqiniswa, okwakufanele akwenze ngo- $ 2.7 billion. Akunakuqhathaniswa nesizinda sesabelomali sesibili ne-Nato 1 trillion. Kepha, njengoba besho, isifiso sokudla siza ngenkathi sidla futhi inkinga lich - isiqalo.
Bika "ukugcwalisa ibhendi yeBaltic NATO"
NgoMeyi 2016, i-International Defence and Security Center (ICDS) iTallinn, e-Estonia) yashicilela umbiko "Ukugcwalisa ibhola leBaltic Nato". Ababhali bakhe babethathe umhlalaphansi waseMelika uWesley Clark (WESley K. Clark), owayengumuntu owayengumkhuleko we-NATO Ophakeme eYurophu (e-USA) (USA); UJüri Luik, umqondisi we-International Defence and Security Center (Estonia) [3]; UHermansky Ramms ramms ramms ramms (egon ramms), umkhuzi wangaphambilini wamabutho ahlomile ahlangene eNatno eBrynsum; USir Richard Shirreff (Richard Shirreff), owayengumphathi wePhini eliphakeme lamabutho e-NATO United Armces eYurophu (Dsaeri). Benze impi enkulu yemvelo enkulu futhi esebenza kahle emazweni aseBaltic, ekholelwa ukuthi yile ndlela kuphela yokuqinisekisa ukuphepha ebusweni bokusongelwa kwe- [4] kusuka eRussia. Ngasikhathi sinye, kwaphawulwa ukuthi uma ungaqinisekisa ukuba khona kwamandla okulwa ngokushintshana, khona-ke le mpikiswano ihlobene nefomethi yokuba khona (ukushintshana noma njalo) akufanele iqhubeke.
Ngokusho kwababhali balo mbiko, kungazimela ngokuphelele ekusetshenzisweni kwe-Nato Battalions ukwengeza emazweni ngasinye seBaltic ku-Nato Brigade eyodwa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kwaphakanyiswa ukuthi kwandise kanye namasosha aseMelika - okungenani kwelinye iqembu elijwayelekile le-battalion emazweni ngalinye le-baltic.
Kwahlongozwa nokuthi ukuphindaphinda emazweni aseBaltic ngokushintshana, amayunithi athile ase-US asolwandle avela esifundeni esimnyama solwandle. Kwaphawulwa ukuthi sekusekuqaleni kwezigaba zokuqala zamandla ezinkampani ezikhethekile (Sof) kuzodlala indima enkulu ekufezeni noma imiphi imisebenzi emazweni aseBaltic ngokucindezelwa kanye nokubuyiselwa kwemali "(A2 / Isikhangiso), kanye nendima ebalulekile ekutholeni izenzo ezenziwa yiRussia, njengoba kushiwo, zingazama ukufihla ngaphansi kwesigaba se- "Green Men" noma "amasosha aqashiwe".
I-Patrol Air Space Patrol Mission Baltic Airplanes Baltic Air Policing yacelwa ukuthi iguqulwe yaba yimishini ekuvikelweni kwamandla athile angezelwe kanye nezindlela zokubethelwa. Ulwandle lucelwe ukuba lukhuphule ukuba khona kwamaqembu asolwandle ahlala njalo eLwandle lweBaltic (SNF). Lawa maqembu bekufanele afake phakathi imikhumbi ekwazi ukusebenzisa iziteleka ezinde ezinde, kanye nokuzivikela kanye nokubalalisa indawo yaseRussia A2 / AD esifundeni saseKaliningrad.
Ukuqinisa Ukuba khona Okuthuthukile kwe-NATO E-Baltic States
Ukushicilelwa kwemiphumela ye-GRAM Study kanye neminye imibiko eminingi, kanye nokungabaza kwamazwe aseBaltic eqinisweni lokuthi, endabeni yokuhlaselwa kweRussia, i-Article 5 yeNorth Atlantic Comparey izokwenziwa [5 ] Kuholele eqinisweni lokuthi kwiNato Summit eWarsaw ngoJulayi 2016 yanqunywa ukuthi iqinise ukuba khona okuphezulu kwe-Nato eLithuania, eLatvia, e-Estonia nasePoland. Isikhathi sokuhlala kwamaqembu okulwa neBatalion ePoland nasezifundeni zeBaltic azinqunyelwe ngesikhathi. Ama-Battalion (Combat Amaqembu okuqhakambisa ubukhona be-NATO), athulwe phakathi kukaJanuwari no-Ephreli 2017, akopele (ePoland), eCanany (eLatan), e-Latvia) kanye ne-United Kingdom (e-Estonia).
Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2020, inani lamaqembu empi okubukhona okuqinisiwe kwe-NATO emazweni aseBaltic lalingu-3768. Amaqembu aseBaltic States nasePoland angaphansi kwesigaba se-Nato North-East Command (MND-NE) eDolish City of Elblag. Ukuba khona kwamaqembu okulwa kuhloswe ngalo, okokuqala, ukwehlisa ubuholi bamazwe aseBaltic, ukuthi amazwe abo angaphansi kokuvikelwa kwe-NATO, okwesibili, ukuhambisa isiginali ehambelana neRussia.
Ngamafuphi, ama-servicemen amaqembu okulwa asebenza njengohlobo lokuthunjwa. Uma ukuhlaselwa okuqondile kwenzeka eMelika, eJalimane, eCanada, eBrithani kanye namanye ama-servicemen avela emazweni e-Alliance, lokhu kuqinisekisa impendulo yezempi yaseNato ngokuya nge-Article 5 yeNortantic Chorey.
Kodwa-ke, indawo yokuhlala eBaltic States of the Battle Amaqembu Okubukhona Okuqinisiwe kwe-NATO, ngokusho kochwepheshe abaningi, awazange axazulule izinkinga zezempi eziphawulwe embikweni weRand Corporation (ikusasa "ulaka lwaseRussia" ngasikhathi sinye selumenyezelwe esidlangalaleni cishe akunakugwemeka njengokushintsha kwezinkathi zonyaka). Amandla okulwa we-Nato Battalions ayengaphansi. Bangazivikela, babe namakhono athile ahlomile, futhi banezindlela zokuvikela umoya wokuvikela umoya kanye (esikalini esilinganiselwe) ubuciko bezobuciko. Njengoba abhale ngokuhamba kwesikhathi uDkt Ulrich Kün ovela esikhungweni saseVienna ukuze ahlaziye futhi antroliforation, lawo angamabutho abizwa ngokuthi "amabutho okuthola" (amabutho e-tripwire) - amandla akho okubonisa ukuzibophezela kwe Ukuvikela iphathi ukuphendula okuhlomile ekuhlatheni okuzayo. Uma kwenzeka uhlaselwa, kufanele yehlise ukukhushulwa kwamandla womhlaseli, ukuwina isikhathi sokuhlanganisa nokudlulisa amabutho angezekile adingekayo kwi-couratatack. Ngakho-ke, ukukwenza ezifundeni zeBaltic ngaphandle kwamakhompiyutha aphezulu we-NATO ngokukhuliswa okwanele, kungaba okungenangqondo.
Ngendlela ingxoxo yaqhubeka kanjani ukukhulisa ubukhona bezempi e-United States ne-NATO emazweni aseBaltic ngemuva kokubeka lapho ku-Nato Battalions - engxenyeni yesibili yezinto ezibonakalayo.
U-Yuri Zveriv, ukhetho lwesayensi yesayensi, uchwepheshe oyinhloko wesikhungo sezifundo ze-geopolitical of the Baltic Region Institute of the Baltic Federal University. Immanuel Kanta
[1] Uhlelo lokugcina lwesikhathi sokuvikela iPoland namazwe eBaltic, njengoba kubikwe, kwethulwa nguNato ekuqaleni kukaJulayi 2020.
[2] Ngasizathu simbe, uLithuania, uBelarus kanye nesifunda saseKaliningrad bahlala ngaphandle kokulingisa. Ukuhlanza kwenziwa kuphela e-Estonia naseLatvia kusukela endaweni eyinhloko yaseRussia. Kulombi kugxekwa imibuthano yamasosha aseMelika.
[3] Manje uNgqongqoshe Wezokuvikela e-Estonia. Phambilini, iposi likaNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle laliqhutshwa kathathu futhi lalingummeleli waphakade e-Estonia eNato.
[4] izinsongo ekusetshenzisweni kwezikhali ezijwayelekile (ezingezona zenuzi).
[5] Ubuholi bamazwe eBaltic besaba ukuthi uma kwenzeka impi neRussia, inani lamazwe aholayo eNyakatho Atlantic Alliance ngeke lifune, "khumbula uNarva" kanye nokuphathwa kwalezi zifundazwe Shiya amabhande ngaphandle kokusekelwa kwezempi, naphezu kobulungu babo eNato.
[6] Ngokushintsha kwezigaba eqenjini lokulwa njalo ezinyangeni eziyisithupha.