Waxa ku saabsan arrintan maqaalkiisa ku yaal Xariirka Agrhehheut.com, wuxuu qoraa falanqeeye Jarmalka Dr. Olaf Zinka.
"Beeraleyda ee indhaha la yaabka leh: Qiimaha hadhuudhka ayaa weli ku sii jiraya Maxima cusub. Iyo falanqeeyayaal badan hadda ma jiraan wax sharaxaad ah oo ku saabsan kororka ugu dheer ee qiimaha ugu dheer ee qiimayaasha tirooyinka Arariria - laga yaabee inay tahay sababo badan oo sababao kala duwan oo cawaaqib leh oo cawaaqib leh
... oo markasta oo falanqeeyayaashu filayaan in saxaan, qiimayaashu mar labaad ayey sii kordhayaan. Waa maxay sababta suurtagalka ah ee ugu soo baxda qiimaha ugu dheer ee u soo baxa tirooyinka Araririan?
Sababo badan oo kaladuwan iyo cawaaqib-dhaantu waxay ka dhalataa koror:
Xitaa waxaan wajihi karnaa guud ahaan qiimaha cusub ee wax soo saarka beeraha - sida loo saadaaliyo falanqeeyayaasha badeecad ee dahabka ee dahabka ee Dahabka Sachs iyo khubaro kale. Waxay u fiicnaan kartaa beeraleyda.
Arbacadii, toddobaadkan, qiimaha hadhuudhka ee suuqa mustaqbalka ee ku yaal Paris ayaa u kacday si loo duubo qiimayaasha. Markii ugu horreysay tan iyo May 2013, qamadiga yurub ayaa lagu iibiyay 245 euro halkii ton, dhalidda cusub ee u kacday 203 euro halkii nin.
Qiimaha jajaban wuxuu ku booday 485 euro halkii ton iyo, sidaas, heerka, oo markii ugu dambeysay ee la arkay bishii Oktoobar 2012. Kanada dhexdeeda, qiimaha dhibcaha toddobaadkan ayaa gaadhay rikoor cusub oo ugu badnaan - maxaa yeelay 6 bilood ka hor goosashada cusub ee suuqa ku dhawaad ma jiro wax kufsi ah oo iib ah.
Qiimaha Yurub, hadhuudhka ayaa loo orday 230 euro halkii ton, oo ku sugan dalka Chicago, qiimaha sarreen iyo hadhuudhku waxay u kaceen tirooyinka Febraayo 2013.
Qiimaha qamadiga ee dhawaan, qabow qabow gudaha Mareykanka si uu u helo door weyn. Falanqeeyayaasha ayaa ka baqaya waxyeelo weyn ee qamadiga xilliga qaboobaha: Isniinta, Waaxda Beeraha ee Mareykanka ayaa soo warisay in qiimeynta gobolka ee qamadiga jiilaalka uu ku yaraaday Febraayo bishii Febraayo ee Kansas, oo ah hogaamiyaha sarreenka dalka.
USDA waxay daabacday qiimahii ugu dambeeyay ee qaranka 2020 ee bishii Nofembar. Waqtigaas, boqolkiiba 46 boqolkiiba dalaggu waxay ku sugnaayeen xaalad wanaagsan ama aad u wanaagsan. Xilliga jiilaalka, Waaxda Beeraha ee Mareykanka waxay daabacdaa warbixinno bille ah oo keliya wadamada shaqsiyadeed. Warbixinta aruurinta dalagga ee billaha ah lama heli doono ilaa Abriil.
Qeybta Beeraha ee Mareykanka ayaa hada ku jirta 40% goosashada sarreenka jiilaalka ee ku aaddan xaaladda ugu weyn ee ku koraysa ee Kansas xaalad wanaagsan ama xaalad aad u wanaagsan, marka la barbar dhigo 43% bishii hore. Si kastaba ha noqotee, sanad ka hor, kaliya 35 boqolkiiba goosashada ee Kansas ayaa loo qiimeeyay inay yihiin kuwo wanaagsan ama aad u wanaagsan.
Qiimaynta qamadiga jiilaalka ee gobolka kale ee qamadiga ee Oklahoma ayaa sidoo kale hoos u dhacay, laakiin lagu hagaajiyay Koonfurta Dakota, Colorado iyo Montara. Beeraleyda ku nool Kansas, Oklahoma iyo Texas ayaa inta badan sii kordhaya noocyada jiilaalka ee jiilaalka casaanka adag, qamadiga dhoofinta ugu muhiimsan ee Mareykanka.
Warbixinta Waaxda Beeraha ee Mareykanka ayaa sheegtay in Texas iyo gobolada kale, qiimeynta saameynta ay ku dhalatay dhaxan ku saabsan qamadiga qamadiga qamadiga.
Qiimaha saliida ee kordhaysa ayaa taageera qiimaha saliidaha
Sida laga soo xigtay falanqeeyayaasha, isu soo baxa suuqyada suuqyada saliida ayaa lagu kululeeyaa baahida qiimaha hadhuudhka oo dhan, maadaama qof walba uu doonayo inuu sameeyo kayd. Sida iska cad, tani waxaa loola jeedaa labada soybeans iyo rayrayn.
Qiimaha hadhuudhka ayaa si qayb ah uga sii kordhaya sababta oo ah sababta, maadaama roobabku ay xireen nadiifinta soybeans ee Brazil iyo sidaas darteed waxay dib u dhigtay beero kale oo dalalka dalka ah - hadhuudh xilliga qaboobaha.
Sida laga soo xigtay falanqeeyayaasha, xilli ciyaareedkan Braziil wuxuu aruurin karaa dalag ah oo ah hadhuudh hadhuudh ah qaddarka 108.2 milyan oo tan, maadaama beeralleyda si guud u kordha goosashada sicirka hadhuudhka dartiis. Sida ku xusan daraasadda, meelaha lagu beero hadhuudhka galleydu waxay ku kordhin kartaa 1 milyan oo hektar oo ilaa 19.4 milyan oo hektar ah. Tani waxay siin doontaa dhiirigelin awood leh soosaarka waxayna ka dhigi doontaa in Brazil ay u tartami doonto suuqyada dhoofinta marka loo eego Mareykanka.
Si kastaba ha noqotee, inta badan dalagga hadhuudhka labaad ee Brazil waxay u badan tahay in lagu beero meel ka baxsan daaqadda ku-meelgaarka ah ee ku habboon, kaas oo saameyn ku yeelan kara soosaarka.
Ugu dambeyntiina, Ukraine, oo ah dhoofinta soybeans, sanadkaan markii ugu horeysay ee la soo dejiyo soy. Braziil waxay bixin doontaa 51,600 tan oo soy oo asal ahaan reer Brazil ah ay asal ahaan ka soo jeedaan Ukraine. Tan waxaa soo wariyey ganacsatada.
Suuqa ayaa sidoo kale dareenka u soo jiidanaya qiimaha saliidda. Haddii qiimaha saliida uu sii kordho, waxay taageeri doontaa hadhuudhka iyo saliida saliida. Qiimaha soy ayaa gaadhay heerka ugu sareeya 6.5 sano. Mustaqbalka kufsiga Kanadiyaanka ah Isniinta ayaa isniintii gaadhay heer cusub oo rikoor ah, mustaqbalkeeda mustaqbalkiisa Satif ee Faransiiska ayaa gaaray heerka ugu sareeya muddo sideed sano ah.
Falanqeeyayaasha ayaa rumeysan in kor u kaca qiimaha saliida ee ceertaadu ay si weyn u hagaajinayso xaddiga biofuls saliida ka samaysan saliidda cuntada, kaas oo taageeraya koritaanka dhammaan saliida saliida. "
(Isha laga qaado: www.agrarhet.com. Waxaa daabacay: Dr. Olaf Zinka).