Kubva pakutanga kwegore, vanoongorora vechinzvimbo Wall Street vanoita sekutsvaga kushungurudzika kunoenderana nekufungidzira kwekukurumidza hupfumi mushure mekupera kwezviitiko zvese zvinodzora. Kufanotaura kwehafu yekutanga yeGoldman Sachs $ 70 PERM $ 70 PERBER Brent, iyo mwedzi mishoma yadarika yakawanda yakawanda vazhinji vakaita kunge vakashinga, vakazadzikiswa munaKurume 8th. Oiri yakadzokera kumazinga aakasvetukira kune mamwe mazinga ekutanga kwaJanuary 20, kwaaive achitengesa mushure mekuponda nevaAmerican ksir KSEMI, uye nyika iri muMiddle East Kumirira kurwa kwemauto kwekupikiswa kweUnited States neIran. Izvo zvinobva pamazinga iwayo kana zvave pachena kuti chiitiko chacho chaisazowana kukura, kuderera kwemafuta kwakatanga, izvo zvakange zvakundwa mukudonha kwemashure ekuora kwezvibvumirano zveOpec uye kuwira mukuda nekuda kwekupinza Donhedza mumafuta ekushandisa munyika inokonzerwa neye quarantines, kutanga kwezvose - nekuvharwa kweChina.
Chii chandingataure nezve mitengo izvozvi? Ivo vane chikonzero, uye kuti vamirire kukura mune ramangwana? Nekuti $ 100 zvakare inova chinhu chenguva refu uye yepakati-nguva (pamhepo yegore kana maviri) kufembera. Vazhinji vakatenda kuti vatange kutangisa "zvisina kugadzirwa zvigadzirwa". Izvo zvinoshungurudzwa mumamiriro ezvinhu aya kuti vanhu vamwe chete vakatove vatana kuti mafuta haazombove zana paBarrel, nekuti indasitiri yeShale yeUnited States haizombobvumiri kuve chinhu chaicho. Iye achazadza musika wemafuta atokutakura 80, zvisinei kuti Saudi naSaudi nevaRussia pamwe chete havatore kubviswa.
Nyaya yacho ine zviyero zviviri: pfupi-nguva - yegore razvino, uye kwenguva refu - pamakore mazhinji emakore akati wandei. Enzanisa pfungwa mbiri: Kutanga kwaJanuary 2020 uye zvazvino. Uyezve, uye zvino maoiri akashata aive anenge madhora makumi manomwe. Ndeipi yaive nhoroondo iyoyo, uye ikozvino?
1. Ipapo kumirira kuwanda kwemakakatanwa muMiddle East, ikozvino tarisiro yekudzoreredzwa kweUS Nuclear kutengeserana uye Iran zvave kuenderera mberi, izvo zvichaita kuti vawedzere kuIrania kunze kwekutakura kweIran. Iyo geopolitumical Factor haina kunyatsofarira mitengo yazvino.
2. Uyezve, uye zvino chibvumirano chipi chipi chichishanda, asi zvinorambidzwa zvaibva zvanyarara kupfuura zvino. Iye zvino kune mimwe mitsara yakawanda, uye Saudi nokuzvidira akabvisa mumwe miriyoni imwe chete yebhangi / zuva kubva kumusika, ichiti ivo vanotsvaga kuenderera mberi nekudzora masheya. OpEC mutemo + ikozvino ari mukunaka kwemitengo yazvino yakakwirira.
3. Kuda kwepasirese kuri pachena kuti hakuna kufarirwa nemitengo yazvino, kudiwa kwepasi rose hakuna kuwanikwa, kurambidzwa kwakawanda kuchiri muEurope, kwakanyanya, mumavhiki achangobva kuitika mubvunzo uyu ndezvevari zvekuvasimbisa zvakare. Nekudaro, ikozvino kune zvinotarisirwa pakudzoreredzwa kwekuda kwePre-dambudziko mazinga mushure mekupera kweiyo dengic. Kwakakurumidza kudiwa zvichadzoserwa - mubvunzo wakavhurika. China, iyo pamitengo iri pasi pemadhora makumi mashanu pamari yemari yakawedzera iyo mafuta ane maviri-manhamba (mune muzana mazwi egore) nekumhanya, iye zvino akatoitika kuyamwa kwake - zvisingaiti zvekutengesa. Iyo chiyero chekuda ikozvino uye pakutanga kwe20020 haisi kufarira mitengo yazvino. Asi kana iwe ukafunga kuti market hupenyu hwakatarisirwa, unogona "kukanganwira" iye ane makumi manomwe embudzi Brent, kana iwe uchitenda kuti dendechi ichapera.
4. Chinhu chakakosha kune iyo commodity musika ndiyo yakadyiwa mari yemari uye iyo dhora index. Pane zvirokwazvo zvinhu zvese zvinofarira zvinhu zvakakwirira zvekushandisa. Yakadyiswa mugumo zero mitengo kusvikira inflation inomutsa ku2%. Zvakare, kana mune yakapfuura 2%, yaive 2% panguva ino, ikozvino 2%, iri imwe inflation yekufambisa, yakaverengerwa pahwaro hwenguva yemakore mashanu. Kana isu tichifunga kuti 2% nguva dzaive dzisiri mumatambudziko pre-dambudziko, chishuwo chakasindimara che2% paavhareji zvichaguma nemakore akati wandei, inflation inova pamusoro pe2%. Rates chairo muUnited States pamari yemusika zviridzwa zvinogona kuramba zvakashata zvakanyanya. Kukura kweDollar Kubatsira, uko kubvira pakutanga kwegore kunetsekana uye kwakatsamwisa index longback necrocter muzana yegumi, kana kumira, kana mutengo unowedzera. Iyo Dollar Index ingangoita kuti ienderere mberi nekuderera. Dollar isina kusimba ndiyo nzira huru yemari yekukura kwemitengo yemidziyo, yaive pamadhora asina kusimba kuti mafuta akakurira pakutanga kwea00s panguva imwe chete kana dhora rake kana dhora raisa shoma.
5. Zvisinei, munguva yedhora rinowedzera pakutya kwekuenderera mberi kwekukura kwedhora, uye gohwo chaihwo riri kukura.
Kupesana nevimbiso dzeDeve, vagadziri vemari vari kutanga kuti dura richamanikidzwa kurera kubheja nguva isati yasvika kudzivisa inflation. Panguva iyo mamiriro emari anodhonzera. Kukura kwenguva pfupi kwedhora hakuna kunzwirwa mitengo yemidziyo, uye kana maitiro asina kutendeukira mumazuva anouya, saka mafuta, anoita kunge ari ega ari kukura pfuma, pamwe akaruramisa.
6. Shale Mining, iyo pakutanga kwe2020, iyo yave iripo nguva dzose, uye pamadhora makumi manomwe paBarrel Brent ($ 66 per barrel wti) ichawedzera. Huwandu hwehuwandu hwekudhiraivha hwekudhirowa muUnited States zvichienderana nembichana Hughes, inowedzera kubva zhizha.
Iyo ichangobva kuitika trend inhibition inogona kunyorwa kubva pane kumanikidza majuro muTexas, kana chikamu chakakosha chemigodhi chakamira nekuda kwekutonhora kwakanyanya. Izvo zvichadzoreredzwa nekukurumidza sezvinobvira. Shale Factor - Pamusoro pekuwedzera kwemitengo, zvichaitika, zvirinani, kudzivirira kukura kwavo.
Ndeipi pfupiso yezvinhu zvese zvakanyorwa zveramangwana risati rasvika? Mitengo ichakura, kana kukura ichamira zvino, uye tichaona kururamiswa? Zvakaoma kwazvo kufungidzira kukosha kwezvinhu zvese, kunyanya kubvira pakuziva kwehuwandu hwevanhu vezviripo ndechimwe chinhu, saka imwe inotanga kutamba zvakanyanya. Boka racho rinobva ratenda mu "ramangwana rakajeka" mushure mekupokana, ipapo, pane kudaro, rinotanga kutenda kuti mushure mekutadza, iyo Apoclasspse ichatanga. Uyezve, zvitendero zvinogona kuitika zvine rugare, asi mumisika dzakasiyana, izvo, zvakaita kuti zviitike zvekukura kwemafuta - apo vatengesi vane mafuta vachitenda mu "ramangwana rakajeka", vatengesi ve forex vari kuvhunduka nekukura kwekubatsirwa.
Nekudaro, isu tichaedza ... Ngatitangei nekudikanwa uye ogec +. Inogona kunge iri pamusoro pegore rapfuura fiasco, operc + tarisira kushandisa kungwarira, uye pane kuchengeta pane kugumburwa. Mamirioni emarangi anobvisirwa naSaudis nokuzvidira kubva mumusika, anoita basa redambudziko uye gingerbread panguva imwe chete. Kana ruzhinji mu OpEC + runopesana neArab mutsara, havazongowedzera kugadzirwa, asi zvakare kudzoka kwemiriyoni iyi kumusika. Munguva pfupi, zvinogoneka, maArabu kubva kumugodhi akadaro haazorashe, asi avo vanosimbirira pakugadzira kugadzirwa - vacharasikirwa nekuda kwekudonha kwemitengo, kunyange vachifunga nezvekuwedzera kwekugadzira. Nzvimbo yeSaudis iri muOpEC + inoita senge yakasimba, uye ivo vacharamba vachisimbirira pamamiriro avo ekurereya. Ivo vanotamba mutengo vachikwira, uye mutambo uyu unoitwa, zvinokwanisika, pane rumwe ruoko nemadziro emugwagwa muInstaBanks, iri "Spinning" musoro wemutengo unowedzera. Nei Saudi, achigadzira mamiriro ekukwira kwemitengo, kuti arege kuita kubheja pamusoro peiyi kukura kwekamhepo kuti iwane uye ikoko? OpEC Factor + inopa uye inoenderera mberi nekutsiva chinhu chisina kusimba zvinodiwa. Isu tinoda, maererano neizvi, fungidzira kuti zvinhu zviviri uye 3 mune rondedzero pamusoro pazvo chidimbu.
Zvinhu zveArania zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, iyo American slate uye chimiro chemadhora emari musika akasara. Chinhu chinofungidzirwa zvakanaka pano inongova cheAmerican Shale Mining uye mari yemari muUnited States pane yakakura nzvimbo. Mining ichakura, uye mari yemari icharamba yakapfava. Pamakisi makuru ezvese zvinhu izvi zvinogona kuve neimwe nzira yekuyera mumwe nemumwe. Muna 2018, dhora rine simba rakadzora mafuta brent kune iyo nharaunda ye $ 80 perl. Index yeDollar, ipapo muhafu yekutanga yaaive yakagadzikana pazasi 90. Kana iwe uchitenda muFedx, iwe unogona zvakare kutenda kuti indekisi yemadhora ichadzokera kune ramangwana riri pazasi 90, uye uchapinda ikoko. Zvadaro, zvimwe zvinhu zviri kuenzana, unogona kutarisira kuenderera mberi nekukura kwemitengo yemafuta kusvika pamadhora makumi masere pamabharari brent. Wadii, sezvo chimwe chinhu chakadai chatova chatova chenguva pfupi yapfuura? Uyezve, iko zvino hapana aTrump, uyo ainotetera aigona 'kupururudza "pane openi, kuvakurudzira kuti vaderedze mitengo, kutyisidzira, mukudzika kwenyaya, kuderedza kwemauto.
Kana iyo Irani sign ine chiratidzo cheMinus (yemafuta, ari mupfungwa yekuti Iran zvichawedzera kunze kwenyika mupfungwa yekuti Iran ichizowedzera kutumirwa kunze) pakati pevataurwa. Chinyorwa cheIrania chakafanana nemadhora asina kusimba pamwe nekukura kwemutengo wemafuta, uye chero kuedza kukura kwemitengo yeoiri kuchagara kumwe kunhu mumadhora makumi manomwe nemashanu. Asi kana iyo Irani Factor ichitamba yakanangana nekukura kwekunetsana muMiddle East, ipapo ... ipapo nhoroondo yekutanga kweA00s inogona kudzokorora. Hondo paIraq yakashanda semutyairi mukuru wekukura kwemitengo yemafuta pane imwe nhanho yekuputika yebhizinesi mushure mekuputika kweBobble. Uye, cherechedza, mafuta akabva akura kubva kumashure kweechibereki yemusika wedenga muUnited States, kunyangwe, pakupedzisira, akapedza pamwechete nekudonha kwekupedzisira muna 2008.
Saka hapana chinhu chinogoneka pamadhora zana pagoridhe kana global mutemo, imwe nzira kana imwe, ichatungamira kune itsva Middle East dambudziko. Zvinotarisirwa pamusoro pekutarisira kwakadaro, pane chiitiko chenhoroondo: American Democrats muUSA (Mutungamiriri uye vazhinji vemuSeneti uye mutemo, tsvaga yekutora Middle East basa re "Runyararo" . Kune rimwe divi, pane muyedzo mukuru kuuraya, kutaura nenzira yekufananidzira, mune imwe yekupfura kweHares mbiri: kudzora kukura kweChina, avo vekuAmerican pachavo vakazivisa vanokwikwidza, uye kugadzira mari iri pedyo neDemocratic Moyo wesimba rakasvibirira. Kana oiri inodzoka zvakare pamusoro pemadhora zana paBarrel, ichave yakanakisa stimulon yekurega hydrocarbon mafuta mukuda mamwe marudzi esimba pane budget substidies.
Ngatione kuti ndevekuti kuAmerica kupixo yekune dzimwe nyika kuchakudziridza sei. Nepo zvichiratidzika sekuti zvakaringana zvinozosarudza kuwedzera kukura kwemutengo wemutengo weoiri, nekuda kwehupfumi, pamwe chete nemitemo yemishonga +, kana kuti atoita mumwe nemumwe, kana kuti ichazviita munguva inotevera.
Dmitry Golubevsky Muongorori FG "Kalita-mari"
Verenga zvinyorwa zvepakutanga pane: mari.com