Fosagro: Kukura kweRallery muForphate fettilizer

Fosagro Shares (MCX: Phor) kubva pakutanga kwegore yakawedzera anopfuura 30% mumutengo mushure mekukunda mucherechedzo wevanhu zviuru zvitatu zvemazana matatu. Kunyangwe pamativi emativi emusika wedu kubva pakutanga kwegore, makate ekambani anovandudzwa zuva rega rega uye vertics nyowani uye nyowani.

Chikonzero pamitengo yakakwira fettilizer. Sezvo vagadziri vepasi rose venyika vane chikamu chakakosha chemitengo zvinoenderana negesi, kumuka kwemitengo yegesi kunotungamira mukuwedzera kwemitengo yefertilizer Iyo phosagro inoshanda muRussia uye inodya gasi pamitengo inogadziriswa isingakure shure kwenyika.

Munyaya ino, isu tichavhara zvikonzero zvekuti rally uye kufungidzira iyo denga rekufamba uku.

Fig. 1. Source: ru.trautview.com

Chimiro chemitengo yekukwira mukuda kukuru uye matambudziko mune chirevo

Mutengo wePhosphoric fettilizer akatanga kukura zvakanyanya kubva pakutanga kwe2021. Isu takanyora nezve izvi mumishumo yemwedzi yemwedzi nemwedzi. Isu tinoona zvikonzero zvakakosha zvekukura kwakadaro mukukura kwakadaro mumatare:

• Low DAP / Mepu Fettilizer Masheya muIndia uye mune dzimwe nyika dzekunze uye kukura kwekutangisa pamberi pechitubu chekudyara (mwaka wakakwira muPhosphorous ndeye 2 ne3 makota).
• Loge mukuita kwefoni fettilizer muIndia nekuda kwekuvharwa kwezvirimwa panguva yechitubu chechiitiko chechiitiko 2020

Fig. 2.

• Mabasa eAmerica achipesana neRussian uye Russian vanunura vanogadzira kushomeka mumusika weUS, uko kunosundira mitengo yefetiraiza.
• Yakaderedzwa cheChinese inotumira kunze kwenyika mushure mekugadzirisa zvinhu zvemukati. Isu tinoona maitiro akatsiga mune ino dzakatenderedza.

Fig. 3.

• Ichiri mitengo yakakwirira yegesi uye mari yekuwedzera muNitrogen Segment.
• Iko kushaya simba kwedhora index uye kungwara kwemood.

Zvese izvi zvinosundira mitengo yePhosphoric fettilizers yakadai seDap / mepu kune mucherechedzo pamusoro pemadhora mazana mashanu / toni. Kunyangwe gore idzva risati rasvika, mutengo we $ 380-400 / tani akaonekwa seakanakisa pakukura mune ramangwana remhedzisiro yemari.

Fig. 4. Source: ru.tragingyw.com

Iyo American Dap / Mepu Quotes yakarova pamadhora mazana matanhatu / t pane iyo Sumo yeD redcan uye Russian phosphoric fettilizers uye kusimbisa kudiwa kwepamberi pekudyara.

Fig. 5. Tsime: dtnpf.com

Isu tinotarisira kuenderera mberi nekufamba uku

Isu tinofungidzira kuti mitengo yakakwira yePhosphoric fettiges ndeyekuti imwe nguva yakaomesesa pa1P2021. Kuenderera mberi kuchaenderana nekuchengetedza zvinhu zviri pamusoro: Mitengo yegesi, fetiraiza masheya usati wadyara, nezvimwe.

Zvakare, zvakakosha pamitengo ichave nekubudirira kweanodyarwa: Varimi vanounganidza kukohwa, vatengese pamitengo yakakwira kupfuura gore rapfuura, uye vanogona kubhadhara mari yekuwana fetiraiza. Pfungwa dzakadaro dzakateedzerwa kubva kuIndia Agrarees muna 2020.

Panyaya iyi, phosagro inogona kuve yakawandisa nemusika pamusoro 4400 rubles. Asi kufamba pamusoro pemaki iyi kunogumira kuchiri basa rakakura uye kusagadzikana kwekukwira kwakakwirira kwed / ebitda coefficient pamusoro 1.8x.

Chinyorwa chakanyorwa muCo-kunyorwa ne analytics nikita kudido

Verenga zvinyorwa zvepakutanga pane: mari.com