Vakawanda vacalcination vakatanga, musika wacho wakaradzikwa pane kukunda hutachiona. Indasitiri inodzorerwa, mitengo yezvinhu zvisina mbichana zvinhu zviri kukura, kusanganisira mafuta. Yedu fungidziro yemafuta pa 1Q21 kuwedzera kweinosvika $ 65 paBarrel uye kuderera kusvika $ 58 paBarrel mu 2k21. Nekukura kwemafuta emafuta, mari yedu yenyika inosimbiswa. Asi pane mumwe "asi" - izvi ndezvengozi dzeGeopolitical (Nevalny, zvirango zvichibva kuUnited States), izvo zvinoita matambudziko mukukara, uye kunyangwe, kutsigira kushaya simba kwedhora reUS.
Munyaya ino tichaona:
- Ndeipi mari yemari yakakodzera kuti utambe kukura kwemafuta;
- Mumari ipi mari inogona kuitika.
Uye ndiani, kana kwete
Mumamiriro ezvinhu aya takashamisika: Chii chimwe chinokunda kubva pakukura kwemafuta, kunze kwekuti chivimbo chedu? Uye isu takadaro takarangarira Canada nemadhora ake (CAD).
Chokwadi, kutarisa chati yeUSD / rub uye USD / CAD, tichaona correlation yakajeka.
Sezvingaonekwe pane chati, kusvika muna Chikunguru 21, mari yacho yambosangana pamwe chete. Uye ipapo kutariswa kwedu kwave kune geopolitcelitcings: kuratidzira muBelarus of Navalny, kusarudzwa kwemutungamiriri weUnited States, uye ruzha rwepachinguvanisa kune dhora renzvimbo yengozi dzezvirango, nepo Canadian Dollar yakaramba ichisimbisa. Mushure mesarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika yeUnited States (Peak pahurongwa hwaNovember 2-3), mari yedu yenyika yakatanga kusimbisa, nekuti yakatora chikamu chemubayiro wengozi. Asi zvino njodzi dzemanesheni dzakwirwa zvakare pamusoro penzira yekusungwa kweNavy, saka ruble inogona kunetesa zvakare kuti yakanga yashaiwa sei kuti yakanga ichinetswa sei pakudonha.
Wedzera mafuta akashata kune chati.
Mugirafu iyi, isu tatoonekwa zvakajeka senge rub uye cad inonetesa kana oiri ikadonha. Panguva imwe chete, muzhizha, apo Canadia paakatanga kusimbisa mamiriro ekukura kwemafuta emafuta, kutariswa kwedu pachikonzero chechikonzero chakatotikwezva. Uye mushure mekunge sarudzo dziri muUS, mari mbiri idzi dzakatanga kusimbisa dhora kubva kumashure kwemamiriro emafuta.
Nei dhora remadhora rinoenderana nemitengo yemafuta
Canada mugodhi mukuru wemafuta. Maererano nemhedzisiro ya 2019, Canada yakavhurwa pamusoro 5 maererano nemafuta akagadzirwa, achigadzira mazana mazana maviri ematani matani. Canada iri zvakare kiyi yemumwe wako weUSA mukutengesa kwesimba, uye kugovera kwemafuta kunotumirwa kuAmerica.
Ini ndinofungidzira kuona iyo Export chimiro cheCanada yeNovember 2020
Isu tinoona kuti iyo esimba zvigadzirwa chikamu chakavezwa kusvika pamadhora mazana emadhora emadhora kana gumi nemashanu muzana ezvose zvinotumirwa kunze kweNovember. Muna Gumiguru - 14%. MunaNovember 2019, chikamu cheMagetsi zviwanikwa zvacho zvaisvika makumi maviri muzana muzana yeNovember 2019. Saka iyo inodhura iyo mafuta, iyo madhora ekuti isu tisingagumi hupfumi, izvo zvichaita Kupfuurirazve kushandurwa kumadhora canadian.
Kubva pamifananidzo uye chimiro chekutakura kunze kwenyika, tinotenda kuti kuti ndiwanezve kukura kwemafuta zvine musoro kuburikidza nemukomana weUSD / CAD, achiisa canadian dhora, nekuti Izvo hazvikanganise njodzi dzeko, kusiyana nekutara kwedu.
P. S. Joe Biden neChitatu Rakaorwazve mvumo yekuvaka kiyi yeXLTONE muCalgary nekuda kweiyo isiri-yekuteerera nheyo dzehupfumi uye mamiriro ekunze ekutonga kwake. Izvi zvinomiririra kutengeserana kweUS neCanada uye kunogona kudurura hondo yekutengeserana yemuno. Tichatevera mamiriro ezvinhu uye kutsvaga nzvimbo yakakodzera yekupinda.
Ndeapi mamwe mari mukufunga anogona kusimbisa dhora
Turkish Lira
Zano mune yekutakura-yekutengesa zano. Iyi ndiyo zano rakadaro rinopokana rinoenderana nemusiyano uripo pakati pemitero chaiyo yenyika mbiri idzi. Nhasi mumisika yakagadzirwa zero neakashata mitengo, saka mari iri kutsvaga purofiti mumisika inobuda.
Iyo kiyi yeTurkey iri ikozvino pane iyo yegumi neshanu muzana. Zvinotarisirwa kuichengeta pamwero mumwechete pamusangano musi weChina. Kutevera mhedzisiro ye2020, inflation yaive 14.6%. Kubvumirana kunotarisira kukurumidza kwe inflation kusvika pa155% pakupera kwe1q21, uyezve zvishoma nezvishoma kusvika pa10,5-11.2% pakupera kwe2021.
Kubereka kwegumi-gore zvisungo zveTurkey ndeye 13.1%. Iye zvino chiyero chaihwo chekubatsira kweaya zvisungo zvakashata uye zvakaenzana ne -1.5%. Asi kana inflation ichidzora, iyo chaiyo chiyero pakupera kwe2021 inogona kunge iri iyo ~ 2%, iyo inozobatsira pakuwanda kweguta rekunze kuenda kumisika yeTurkey.
Pachivha chinotarisirwa (yakapera 15101), maererano nePepturide Fund (EPFR), iyo huwandu hwekushandiswa kwemabhiriyoni emadhora, nepo vhiki kubva ku1 Ndira kusvika gumi kwaive nekubuda kwe $ 1.5 bhiriyoni. Chikamu chemari iyi chakaenda kuTurkey.
Zvakare, kuwanda kwenzvimbo dzekunze kuTurkey kunogona kupa iyo mwaka wekushanya, iyo muna 2021 ichave ichishanda zvakanyanya kupfuura muna 2020.
Asi zvinodikanwa kuti uve wakachena uye usakanganwa nezve njodzi dzeTurkey Lyra:
- Kuvimba nekosi kubva pane zvakataurwa nemutungamiri wenyika, iyo yaionekwa neiyo 2020;
- Kukura kweAccount Yazvino Kukanganisa kwemadhora mazana mana emadhora munaNovember from $ 340 miriyoni muna Gumiguru - iyo yakakura account yekushomeka, iyo Lira iri kutengeswa;
- Mari inochengetedza minus zviisungirwe zvebhangi repakati hazvina kukwana kuti muongorori wekupindira mumusika wemari uye, kana zvichidikanwa, simbisa muridzo.
Pano iwe uchazodawo kusarudza pfungwa yekupinda, asi inogona kuswedera pedyo nekupera kwe1k21, kana inflation ichasunungurwa paPeak.
Argentine peso.
Isu tinoona nekukurumidza mumitengo yezvinhu zvinyoro-nyoro (soy, chibage, shuga) pasi rose, dj-ubs indekisi) mumashure memwedzi mitanhatu (+ 40%) yakapfuura kusimuka mumitengo yemhangura (lme). UN (FAO) zvinyorwa kuti mitengo yechikafu yakakwira kune yakakwirira chikamu mumakore matanhatu.
Ngatitarisei kutumira kunze kweArgentina.
Isu tinoona izvo zvinyoro-nyoro zvigadzirwa zvinoita ~ 60% yeTurumende ye9m20, saka hupfumi hweArgentina hunofanira kukunda kubva mukukwira mumitengo yavo. Isu tichaona mubvunzo uyu zvakadzama uye zvakadzama uye kudzokera kwazviri, uye ichi chikafu chidiki chekufunga.
Chinyorwa chakanyorwa mukubatana neUngororo Viktor COUNOV
Verenga zvinyorwa zvepakutanga pane: mari.com