2010 inosvika kumagumo, uye tinoyeuka segore re "zvinoshamisa." Hapana munhu aigona kufanotaura kutanga kwedenda repasi rese, uye hapana aitarisira kuti hapana munhu wekuti gore rinopera "manomba ekufungidzira."
MunaFebruary (kunyange isati yatanga kupararira kweCoronavirus), takavandudza chirevo chedu chegore 2019 pangozi dzinowedzera dzekuderera. Panguva iyoyo, vezvenhau uye vanoongorora nemadziro emadziro vaive vasingaregi zvekuti hapana kuderera kwezororo, uye nekupera kwe2021 purofiti purofiti paS & p 500 ichawedzera kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi matatu.
Ipapo takacherekedza:
"Ngozi huru yehupfumi uye misika haisi coroconavus. Chekutanga pane zvese, zvakakodzera kupindira kweiyo Global Suppty Chain.
Huwandu hwe data hunoratidza kuti njodzi yekudzokorora inoonekwa yakakwirira kupfuura kuongororwa kwenhau. Izvi ndizvo zvakare zvinoruramisa pakubatsira kwechikwereti cheveruzhinji uye nemweya wezvinhu zvemaoko. "
Uye mwedzi wakatevera, nyika yakadzikira. Kwemwedzi unotevera, musika wechitoro wakawira pasi ne 35% kubva kuNhoroondo yayo maximya, uye hupfumi hwakanyudzwa mukuderera kwakadzika kubvira "kuora mwoyo kukuru".
Nekudaro, kudonha mukukosha kwemigove kwakatungamirwa kune yakakura jekiseni rekusimbisa kumusika munhoroondo yayo yese.
Inguva yekuFRR
Kunyangwe kudonha kwemusika wemasheya kwaive kwatyisa zvechokwadi, kwakanyanya kwese kwakaputirwa kwakavhiringidzwa nekuwedzera kwakapinza muchiratidzo. Wall Street inogara ichitotiudza nezvechimiro chakakwana chemabhangi anotungamira emari anotungamira. Muchokwadi, kunyangwe kuwedzera kushoma mumitero kunogona kuvasvitsa mukubhuroka.Mumamiriro ezvinhu ekuora kweiyo nzira dzepadenga uye kudonha mune zvehupfumi zviitiko, iyo Federal Reserve System yakamanikidzwa kushandisa maitiro avo emari. Semhedzisiro yekupindira, chiyero cheMutungamiriri chakura chakatanga kusingagumi saizi.
Kuedza kwaDewa kwakabva kwaita kuti rigone curve curve uye dzosera "mamiriro emari" kurekodha yakaderera mazinga. Hazvishamisi kuti kurwisa kumashure kweiyo Super Metari yeMari yemari yekudyara (mune iyo regulator yakagadzira mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika) kwemakore mazhinji
Ehezve, kana vaisa mari vasina mari - hakuzove ne "bullish" musika. Kana denda rikamira zviitiko zvese zvemitambo, vatambi vavanoda vaigadziriswa nekupindwa muropa nemusika wemasheya.
Kukurudzira kwakatenderedza vatambi mumatanda
Munhoroondo yose yekudzoreredza, ivo vanokanganisa misika yemasheya. Kuderera kwehupfumi kunotsamwiswa nedenda hakufanirwe kuve kusarudzika: Huwandu hwevasina basa uye zvikumbiro zvezvikomborero zvakapfuura zviratidzo zve chero chipi zvacho chakapfuura.
Mukupindura, hurumende yakapa rusina basa risina basa kuti dzipe zvakanaka, dzakasimudza zvinowanikwa muhuwandu hwevanhu. Nekudaro, mumamiriro ezvinhu e "Lokdaun", mari yacho haina kudzoserwa kuhupfumi, asi yakatora fomu yekuchengetedza.
Pasi pesimba rehurumende "kukurudzira", vanhu vakarega kuisa pamutambo, uye panzvimbo iyoyo vakatanga kuisa mari mumatanda.
Rubatsiro rwekubudirira
Sezvatakacherekedza mune chimwe chezvinyorwa zvakapfuura:
"Muna 2020, nhamba yevashandisi veiyo yemahara ekutengesa plating platform yakura kupfuura matatu emamiriyoni uye akapfuudzwa mamirioni gumi nematatu. Iyo avhareji zera revatengesi vega vane makore 31 apfuura. Kuvhiya uye kupenga kwemutambo weiyo stock musika kwakaita kuti mamirioni evashandi vatsva kuvhura maakaunti. Zvishoma zvine simba zvinotsigirwa nevanhu avo vaizotamba kubhejera kana kuita mabhebhi emitambo (izvo zvakazoita kuti vave vasingawanikwe), "vhiki yevhiki nevhiki rinopembererwa.
Sezvatakacherekedza muchinyorwa ichocho, chikuva chinofamba-famba chinoshanda kwete "maita basa." Ndiye:
"Iko kushungurudzika ndiko kuti rofinubuhilhopious anoba asina kupfuma. Anowana, anowana varombo. " Mufananidzo wezvemahara usina kuberekwa munzvimbo isina chinhu; Robinhopper maitiro ekushandisa, uye ochitengesa data iri pakumisa vega vepachivako kune yakakura yehimita mari.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, vagadziri vemasangano vanokwanisa kutengeserana zvakananga kupokana neguta guru. (Dai zvisiri zvinobatsira kwazvo, mari yeHedge yaisabhadhara iyo data mamirioni). "
Hazvishamisi kuti yaive nechikonzero ichi kuti rofinhinhopio ichangobhadhara madhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi mashanu emamiriyoni ezvekudzivirira uye exchange commission (sec).
Vagadziri uye Sarudzo Spar "Bykov"
Misika payakapora kubva kuLapt Dollapse, maInvestors akarega kutarisisa kune tarisiro yekuwedzera kukurudzira kwebhajeti uye kutanga kwekudzivirira kwakawanda. Zvakangodaro, kudzokorora kushungurudzika kwakatungamira kuchokwadi kuti makore asina kusimba emusika akapedzerwa munzira yedivi. Sezvatakambotadzisa:
"... Marike inoenderera mberi ichimhara zvinoenderana neyekare mamiriro egore resarudzo. Kunyangwe mumavhiki mashoma apfuura, zvechokwadi vaive vakamanikidzwa, kuderera kwechikamu chikuru chakarairwa.
Kutarisa kusarudzo dzose dzepakutanga kubva 1960, zvinogona kuoneka kuti huwandu hwemagariro egore rinoda kusvika 8,4% (kunze kweCarisis yemari ya2008 uye 2020). "
Sezvo bhuku redu, musika wakaramba uchikura maererano nekutarisirwa uye munguva pfupi yapfuura zvinyorwa zvinyorwa. Sarudzo yaJoe Bayden uye kuwanikwa kwemasango kunounzwa kushamwari yevashandi vezvidyire kune baba vake. Sezvatakanyora pakutanga:
"Pane dhiji iri pazasi, kukosha kwekuwedzera kwezviratidzo zvekuvimbiswa kwevanhu vekwavo uye vatambi vega, vakawanikwa kubva pakuvimba mune ramangwana radzoka pakudyara. Kana chiratidzo chiri chakanaka, chivimbo ndechekuti mugore musika uchavhara pamatanho makuru, pane izvozvi, zvakakwirira kupfuura kuvimba kwemusika kuongororwa kwemusika. Panguva imwe chete, zvinopesana ndezvechokwadi.
Mhedziso yakakosha ndeyekuti mari panguva imwe chete fungawo musika nekumutsirazve, uye yakagadzirira kuwedzera kukura. "
Ichi chiitiko chimwe chete ichocho chakatsanangurwa neaimbova sachigaro weiyo ALAN Greenspan muhurukuro yaDecember 1996 pane iyo musoro "kuwanda".
Zviratidzo zvefivha
Pakupedzisira, segore idzva ramakore makumi maviri nemakumi maviri nemashanu, pane zviratidzo zvekuti misika yakasvika pamisika "fivha".
Iye zvino vatangeri vega vanopfuura vanopfuura vanovimba mukukura mune ramangwana.
Uku ndiko "kuwanda" kunonoka kupfuura zvese:
"Unofanira kubvunza kuti" mafuta ei "mafuta acho," achifunga kuti kunyange "mabheya" anoshanda "haatauri. Nekuda kweizvozvo, mubvunzo unogona kuumbwa seinotevera: "Kana zvese zvatova pamusika, ipapo ndiani achatenga?".
Uye izvi hazviratidzwe kwete mumanzwiro chete, asiwo mukufungidzira kwepamberi kwevashandi. Parizvino, musika wekusarudza unoratidza kutenda kwakasimba kwevatengesi mune chokwadi chekuti zvigoverwa hazvikundikane.
Chivimbo ichi chinoratidzwa mune zvakawanda zviratidzo zvinoratidza kuti vanoisa mari kutenga "njodzi" pepa rine kumhanya kwazvo kumhanya. Sekureva kweiyo 4-panel Dhizaini pazasi, maStainors akaisa mari mumari uye anovimba mune ramangwana, uye nzvimbo pfupi dzakanyarara. (Graphics yakapa zuva nezuva.)
Nekuda kweizvozvo, kusunganidzwa kwemari yemari mumabhawa akasvitswa.
Uye kufunga nezve zvinoshamisa chiyero chekutsauka kwemusika kubva mukutarisirwa kwenguva refu, vaisimudziri vanogona kuodza mwoyo zvakare. Uye isu hatitombofunga kuwirirana kwenguva refu nemusika okusangana.
Sezvacherechedzwa mune imwe yezvinyorwa zvedu, kuwirirana kwakasimba kwakanyanya kwekukosha kwemigove uye kudzoka kwemangwana pakudyara kunoenderana nekuongororwa.
Chii Chakatimirira Muna 2021?
Parizvino, vaongorori vari mukukasira kuona iyo yepamusoro yepamusoro ye s & p 500 yegore rinouya.
Kufanotaura kwavo kucharurama here? Zvese zvichaderedzwa kuti ukure kwehupfumi kunogona uye kukura kwehupfumi kunogona uye, pakupedzisira, kubatsira kwekambani yekambani kunogona kubata nemusika wakawandisa. Nguva mbiri dzekupedzisira apo fungidziro yemusika yakabvarurwa kubva purofiti, mhedzisiro yacho yakanga isiri iyo yakanyanya kunaka.
Isu tinopedza zvakananga kufanana nevanoisa mari vanopfuura misika yemusango mumamiriro ezvinhu asina kusimba (izvo zvinounza mari yemusangano).
Chiratidzo chinotiratidza kuti "Kuparadzanisa" kwemisika kubva kuhupfumi kunotungamira mukudzoreredza. Iko kuwirirana kuri pachena kana iwe uchitarisa pamusika muchirevo chehukama hwehukama hwemakambani kuGDP. Kana iko kuderedza 90%, vaisimudziri havafanire kudzikisira kutsauka uku.
Kuwirirana kwakadaro hakusi kusatarisirwa, sezvo purofiti yekambani ibasa rekukura kwehupfumi. Saizvozvo, kufamba kwavo kwemhosva hakufanirwe kushamisika. Uye isu hatisi kungori kungori chete nezve capitalization capitalization mune hukama neGDP, asi nezve zvese zvakafanana zviyero panguva imwe chete.
7 yekutonga mitemo
Saka, 2020 yakazogara zvakanyanya nezviitiko zvisingatarisirwi kupfuura zvingafungidzirwa. Uye sekujekesa kwe20021 kusvika, zvichave zvine musoro kugadzirira mamiriro akafanana. Izvi zvichabatsira 7 mitemo:
1) Bvisa zvinhu zvisingabatsiri uye gwaro zvinobatsira: Zvinongonzwika, asi investor inowanzoita kuti utengese migove yakatounza purofiti, uye ubate minus chinzvimbo mutariro yekutendeuka.
2) Tenga kuMimeta, tengesa kuMaxima: Inodhura Chishandiso haina kupa yakakosha kukosha. Usaruramisa zvakakurisa mari yekudyara, nekuti purofiti ichazotambura.
3) Usatarisira kuti panguva ino zvese zvichave zvakasiyana: munhu anogara achida tariro yezvakanakisa. Nekudaro, yeuka kuti, kunyangwe iyo nyaya yacho isingadzokororwazve "izwi neshoko", zviitiko zvinowanzoitika zvakafanana.
4) Iva nemoyo murefu uye usakurumidza kuisa mari. Iko hakuna chinhu chakabatirirwa muakagara "mumari" kusvikira mukana wakanaka wekudyara unoonekwa. Kushivirira inzira huru yekuzvidzivirira kubva kumatambudziko.
5) Dzima TV. Chinhu choga chauchazadzisa, kugara uchiona terevhizheni inoratidza - Uku kuwedzerwa kweropa.
6) Njodzi haina kuenzana purofiti. Anoratidzira kurasikirwa kunogona kuitika kune imwe nyaya isina kubudirira. Iyo yekuchengetedza nzira inowedzera capital mune refu kumhanya nenjodzi yakaderera.
7) Usabvumire kune yekukurumidza pfungwa. Kana munhu wese achibvumirana nekutungamira kwemusika nekuda kweimwe seti yezvikonzero, zvakakodzera kururamisa kune zvinhu zvisina kufanira. Iyi thesis inoenderana nedima 2 uye 4. kutenga chimwe chinhu chakachipa kana kutengesa zvinodhura, iwe unotenga kutengesa uye kutengesa pane zvikamu zvekukura zvisina kujeka.
Pfupisa
Misika yakanyatsosvitsa zvakanyanyisa pamafambiro akasiyana siyana. Chikamu chechiitiko cheMarginal chakadzosa kune Peak
Ehe, izvi hazvifanirwe kushamisika. Pamhepo yemusika, munhu wese anozova mune imwe harness.
"Chinetso chikuru cheiyo Investor (uye kunyange muvengi wake akaipisisa) anogona kunge ari iye amene," Bhenjamini Graham.
Iyo inonyatsounza kwatiri kune dzinoverengeka nheyo dzakakosha.
Investment haisi kukwikwidza
. Vanokunda havamiriri mubairo, nepo chirango chekurasikirwa zvichave zvakakomba. Chengetedza manzwiro pasi pekutonga. Semutemo, zvichave zvakanaka kuita zvinopesana ne "manzwiro" ako. Nzvimbo dziri muThechi-term portfolio rinofanirwa chete izvo zvinhu izvo zvinounza pasipiti mari. Maonero emusika (kunze kwekusarudzika kwenzvimbo dzayo dzakanyanyisa) harifanirwe kutariswa sechinhu chisarudzo chekutengeserana. Zvinhu zvakakosha uye zvehupfumi zvinofanirwa kuona zvisarudzo zvenguva refu dzekudyara, nepo "kukara uye kutya" kuri kuita pfupi. Izvo zvakakosha kusarudza kuti nderipi mhando dzevashandi vanobata ivo pachavo. Iko kusarudzwa kweiyo nguva yakakodzera yekutengeserana hazvigoneke. Asi iyo njodzi yekutarisira inogoneka. Kuranga uye nemoyo murefu - kiyi yekubudirira. Kusavapo kwehunhu uhu kuchakanganisa mari capital. Iyo yakazara nhau kumashure kumashure chete inokuvadza investment. Dzima tv uye sagging yemasero. Kudyara kwakafanana nemutambo wekubhejera. Muzviitiko zvese izvi, kune mukana chete wezviitiko zvenguva yemberi zvichienderana nehuwandu. Izvo zvakakosha kuti uzive kana zvakakodzera "kuponesa", uye nguva yekuenda pazvinhu zvese. Universal Investment Strategy isipo. Iyo trick ndeyekuziva mutsauko pakati pehurongwa hwakaipa hwekudyara uye zano risingashande kwenguva pfupi.
Chief chidzidzo 2020?
"Zviitiko zvisingatarisirwi zvinoitika kazhinji kupfuura zvingafungidzirwa."