Musika uyu uri kuedza kupora mushure me "trerzis" kurohwa pakupera kwevhiki rapfuura, iyo yakapesvedzera makirasi ese ezvombo. Anotarisira zvikuru kuti kutonga kweiyo gobvu ratidziro yekutsigira misika mizhinji haina kusarudzika. Iyo ECB yatove ichidzidzira kudzora nzira yekudzora, uye rba yakawedzera kutengwa kwezvisungo refu. Zvakakodzera here kutarisira kuti United States inevera ivo? Mukupedzisira - hongu, asi ino nguva ichauya riinhi?
Nzvimbo huru dzekutenga: Kukura kweDollar ndiko kunogona kukanganisa
NeChishanu, ini ndakatsanangura zvakadzama nzira dzekusuma kweiyo federal control yeiyo gobvu curve. Mhedziso Yese iyo FedREV IYO FEDREV haidi kuita iri rokupedzisira nhanho, kana ikasamanikidza musika - kana kuburikidza nekuwedzera kwake, kutsiga kwekunetseka kwemari chaiyo, kumanikidza tarisiro yehupfumi uye musika wevashandi . Iyi tarisiro haisi nyore kukuvadza, yakapihwa mukana wekudzivirira, uchikubvumira kuti uvhure hupfumi, uye iyo packalion yemadhora ekunakisa ne1.9 inoita kunge yakaderedzwa pasina kusimudza shoma muhoro). Parade yezvirevo zvevamiriri yakadyarwa vhiki ino inofanira kutipa zano rekuti pakave nekuvhiya kwakasimba kwekuvhiringidza vhiki rapfuura iyo nhengo dzeDare rinoshamisa.
Nei USD inotwa uye ikasimbiswa?
Kukura nekukurumidza kwemusika pakutanga kwevhiki rino (uye panguva imwe chete) kunogona kungoenderera mberi nekuenderera kwemufaro kubva kuChishanu kudzoka kweUS bond musika, iyo yakanyanya kusimuka yekudzokera kumashure neChina. Pepa rine makore maviri rakatodzokera zvachose kusvika padanho repakati, uye vashanu- vane makore-matatu-ane makore akadarika pakati pekodhi kumashure. Asi kana splash yekudzoka yakachinjika uye nepfupi, uye pamigumo mirefu ye curve, saka sei vasina kumbodzokera pamwe navo uye neAmerican dhora?
Zvichida kiyi yemhinduro yekuchinja kwemaitiro evamwe mabhangi epakati ane chikafu: Isabelle Snabel kubva kuECB pakupera kwesvondo rapfuura yakaita kuti yambiro yekudzokera kuEurozone, uye iyo Guta reAustralia yakazivisa husiku huno kusahadzika kumhanya kwekutenga zvisungo zvenguva refu. Pane fungidziro yekuti isu tinofanirwa kutarisira zviito zvakafanana uye kubva kune vamwe vanyori vechulorator. Zvichida izvi zvese zvakabatana nehuremu hwe USD - isu tinotiyeuchidza kuti iyo Fed haina kushanda muCuum. Panguva imwecheteyo, nhanho yeRBA ingangove yakabatana nekudzoka chete, asi zvakare nekukasira muAustralia Dollar rate: Audcny pari svondo rapfuura yakaratidza huwandu hwokutanga kubva pakutanga kwa 2018, kunyangwe kuraira kwacho kwakatevera. Nhasi bhangi richasangana kumusangano; Kunyanya kuitika, mukutaura kwake, acharatidza kuva nehanya nezvikonzero zvese izvi.
Asi iyo yakakosha vhiki rapfuura yemusika wemari ndeyekuputika kwakakomba kune iyo USD kuderedzwa maitiro: Mune vaviri vaviri senge iyo Audusd inotaridzika kutyisidzira pamakenduru wevhiki (ona pazasi). Iyo yakajairwa maitiro akananga kuderedzwa kweUSD inotambura zvakanyanya kana iyo Eurusd Pair ichidzika kuburikidza nemucherechedzo we1.2000 uye inodzokera kune huwandu hwe1.1600-1.1900-1.1900-1.1900. Mune ino kesi, vatengesi vachiridza kuderera muUSD, kanokwana mavhiki mashoma vanofanira kumirira kusvika muUnited States kana kutevedzana zvine mutsindo uye kusvetuka inflation), kana iyo yekudyara haina zano dzoka curve. Zvakangodaro, ini ndinofungidzira kuti semhedzisiro, kuiswa kweCCD kunofanirwa kumirira nguva refu kwazvo, kune dzimwe njodzi mumusika.
Zvichakadaro, kusimbiswa kweUSD kuchave kuri kukuvadza kumitengo mumisika yenyika kana iyo mari ichakura kunyange kupfuura imwe chete muzana muzana.
Purogiramu: Audusd kwemavhiki
Pamwe carastrophic rollows pasi mu Audusd's Aucsd paChina uye kunyanya neChishanu akagadzira yakataurwa "chidimbu" chidimbu chevhiki yapfuura. Tariro chete ye "Bykov" - kuti shanduko iyi yakawedzera nemhedzisiro yekupera kwemwedzi, iyo yaive yakanaka kwazvo dhora reAustralia, pamwe nekukonzeresa kurasikirwa pamberi pomusangano wanhasi. Kuti uzvikurumidze kusarerekera njodzi yekudzikira, iwe uchazoda raly rally uye kuvhara kuri pamusoro 0,7900; Zvikasadaro, rollback inogona kuve isimbe kusvika kune yakapfuura mashoma ehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwe0.76 ). Isu tinocherekedza kuderera kweChina yezvidzidzo zveChina: Iyo Indekisi yepamutemo yeiyo PMI Bhizinesi chiitiko mukugadzirwa iri pachiratidzo che50.6, chinoenderana neyakaderera pane iyo denderedzwa mune isina-kugadzirwa nzvimbo (51.4).
Kunobva: SAXO Group
Izvo zvinoitika zvakakosha zviitiko zvekarenda ehupfumi (nguva yezviitiko zvese zvinoratidzwa neGreenwich):
- 00:30 - Chiziviso cheVatengi Chemari Pane Mari yeAustralia Reserve Bank uye Iyo Inonongedzera Kubatsira Kwemakore matatu Zvisungo
John Hardy, Main Metary Strategist Saxo Bank
Verenga zvinyorwa zvepakutanga pane: mari.com