Ndinofanira kutenga fxcn - etf to china?

Zvakakodzera here kutenga fxcn - mubvunzo wakakurumbira wevatengi vedu. FXCN ndeye Index Nheyo, ndiko kuti, kubheja padenga reChina reChina - saka mhinduro haina kuve yakapusa.

Munyaya yanhasi tichaongorora:

• Nei China ichikwira humwe hupfumi;
• Nei yuan ichiramba ichisimbisa dhora;
• Nei makambani eChinese adzorerwa;
• Nei FXCN inokwezva yekutenga.

China - pamberi pevamwe

Sezvo kuvhurwa kwekutengeserana kwekunze uye mari uye shanduko yemahara emusika muna 1979, China yave iri yekuwedzera hupfumi hwenyika, nepo gore regore riripi reGross (GDP) paavhareji yaive 9.5% kusvika 2018 . Iyo World Bank Inonzi China Nyika ne "kukura kwakasimba kwakasimba pakati pehupfumi hombe munhoroondo."

Kuwedzera kwakadaro kunobvumirwa China paavhareji kuti upetere GDP makore masere nega uye akabatsira kuunza vanhu mazana masere emamiriyoni kubva kuhurombo. China rave hupfumi hukuru hwepasi rose (zvichibva pakutenga simba parm), mugadziri, mutengesi zvinhu uye mari yekuchengetedza mari.

Kana iwe ukatarisa iyo data, China ichiri kukura katatu nguva nekukurumidza kupfuura United States uye Europe:

Fig. Poshi

Isu tinoona izvozvo, kunyangwe nekufambira mberi kweEurope neUnited States, gore rimwe nerimwe gore rimwe nerimwe kukura kwehupfumi hweRitai hwakadzika pasi. Izvi zvinoitwa zvinonzi "pakati pemari yemari." Kana iyo nyika ichishandisa mumwe mutyairi wekukura kwemakore mazhinji, saka munguva pfupi inotevera mutyairi uyu ari kunze kwega, uye huwandu hwehupfumi hwakawanikwa.

Kusvika muna 2015, uyu mutyairi aive muenzaniso wefekitori. China yakapa yakawanda yebasa rakachipa pamusika uye rakavhura mikana yekudyara mari. Semhedzisiro, muChina, makambani mazhinji akakura akavhura kugadzirwa kwavo - Apple (Nasdaq: ACEDEQ Motors (GROLE emagetsi (GREENTRC (G) PG), Coca-Cola ( NYSE: Ko).

Bumbiro rakadaro rakabvumidzwa China kukwezva makambani ezvechina-tech uye kuwana mukana wekuwana kwavo. Iko hakuna chakavanzika iyo yakakura mhando dzekutsiva dzezvakajairwa zvigadzirwa zvakaonekwa muChina. Izvi zvakanakisa pane iyo muenzaniso weSmartphone Vagadziri. Maviri emakambani mana makuru eChinese. Uye Huawei kunyange maOttakes Apple nemusika vhoriyamu:

Fig. 2.

Panguva imwecheteyo, muenzaniso wakadaro wezvinhu zvepasirese zvemidziyo zvakatoratidzwa pachako, saka muna 2015 zviremera zveChinese zvakatora dhairekitori nekusimbiswa kwehunyanzvi - "Yakagadzirwa muChina-2025".

Iyi purogiramu inoreva kuchinjika kubva kugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvekunze kune kugadzirwa kwayo kuburikidza neunyanzvi. China yakatarisa zvikamu gumi zvichabvumira nyika kuti itore chinzvimbo chakasimba mu "yechina maindasitiri ekuchinja". 5 ivo ikozvino ndevokuita zvikamu zvinokurumidza kukura:

1. Ingwaru yezvinhu

2. Internet zvinhu

3. robhoti

4. muchina wokudzidza

5. Green simba, kusanganisira maElectrocars.

China uye Chand-19

Pakutanga kwa2020, kuwanda-19 uye mhedzisiro yazvo yehupfumi yainyanya kufungwa sezvinetso zvinokanganisa chete China. Iye zvino China rave rimwe nyika shoma dzaibudirira zvakaipisisa kupararira kwehutachiona, uye hupfumi hwega hwakaratidza kukura kweGDP pakupera kwa2020. Nhamba yechirwere yeCotonavirus muChina haina kutengera haina kukura:

Fig. 3.

Vanguard mune yekutanga mamiriro anotarisira chiGDP kukura kweGDP muna 2021 panguva ye9%:

Fig. ina

Nemafungiro aya anobvumidzwa uye goridhe sach. GS inofanotaura kukura chaiko kwehupfumi hweChina ichangobva kuwirirana pa7,5%, asiwo mune shanduro yayo yeChina - Iyo inokurumidza kukura hupfumi:

Fig. shanu

Kuti uenzanise, muongororo dzichangobva kuongororwa yekudyara, nyanzvi yekuongorora yakamirira kukura kweUS neUS :5% muna 2021, uye iyo yekudyara iri pa6%, iyo ichiri yakaderera kupfuura iyo yakagadziriswa GDP kukura kweChina.

Huwandu: Hupfumi hweChina ndiko kuvimbisa zvakanyanya mumakore anouya.

China inodzora bubble pane musika wemasheya

Musoro wepakati webhengi akataura kuti China ichabhadhara kutarisisa kune mari yekutarisa mu 2021, uye chero matanho ekupedza matanho ekukurudzira achange aine maitiro mashoma pane hupfumi.

Bank revanhu reChina rakabvisa makumi manomwe emadhora

Iyo Central Bank yeChina iri kuyedza kudzora kukura kusingazivikanwe kwemusika. Reference Chinese CSI 300 Index yakawana mamaki epamusoro kubva ku2008 yepasi rose Carisis Cambudziko. Izvi zvakaitika nekuda kwekusimba kwakasimba kwevanotsvaga mari yevashandi kubva pamhedzisiro yeCoronavirus. Zvakare, kubva munaKurume 2020, zvichienderana nezvenguva yemari, madhora mazana mashanu emadhora akaiswa kuChina, kupinza kwakakonzerwa kwete chete nemamiriro ehupfumi akasimba, asiwo nebhangi repakati rebhangi repakati, iro rakaramba riri inflation pachiyero chakaderera. Nekuda kweizvozvo, mari haina kuuya mumatanda chete, asiwo zvisungo:

Fig. 6.

Kutenda kune izvi, iyo indekisi yechiChinese yakura ne10% kubvira pakutanga kwegore, asi mushure mekunongedza mvura yakaderera kubva kuMaxima neanopfuura gumi nemashanu muzana. Panguva imwecheteyo, iyo Nasdaq 100 Indekisi yakadzikira ne7% kubva kune yakakura chikamu nekuda kwekuwedzera kwechibereko chegore-gore:

Fig. 7.

Nekudaro, zvakakosha kuti unzwisise kuti kuderera kweiyo Chinese Index kunosanganiswa nebasa rakanangidzirwa reChinese Realator. Bhangi repakati rinongodzokera kune "zvakajairika" zvemari mamiriro mushure mekushaya simba muna 2020 nekuda kweiyo Chand-19. Ndokunge, iyi inguva imwe-inotarisirwa kuderera nekuda kwe "yakajairika" yemitemo yemutambo. Kuwedzera kukura kwemusika kuchaenda mushure mekudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi hweChina.

Nekuda kweizvozvo, tava kuwana yakanaka yekupinda nzvimbo mumakambani eChinese, sezvo vari kubhura analogs muUSA:

Fig. sere

Iye oga anogogodza kunze kweTencent.

Yese: Chinese yebhuruu machipisi yakachipa pane maAmerican analogs.

Yuan ichasimbisa dhora

Iyo yakapihwa yeUnited States inoramba ichitungamira mutemo wakapfava uye uri kuedza kuramba uchiwedzera mukubatsira kwegumi-gore US zvisungo zveUS.

Fig. pfumbamwe

Kana muchidimbu, saka mufundisi wemari yegumi-gore US zvisungo zvine njodzi-yemahara uye chigadziko chekuverengera iyo inodiwa purofiti yezvimwe zvinhu, kusanganisira migove. Migove inonyanya kuve nengozi pfuma pane zvisungo, saka, kana iyo yekuzvishuwarera ichikura, inofanirawo kukura uye inokodzera uye inopiwa chibereko chinofanira kugoverwa. Iyo "Kubatsira" yeStock inotemwa ne e / p inoratidza, sezvo e unoreva purofiti kwemwedzi gumi nemaviri apfuura, chete p inogona kuchinja kukosha kwechiito. Kukura kweiyo inodiwa e / p yakaenzana nekuderera mune iyo P / E chiratidzo - kureva kuti kuongororwa kweMatesanhu pasi.

Nekuda kweizvozvo, iyo yakadyiwa iri kuyedza kudzivirira kuwira kwakapinza mumusika wemasheya, kudhinda mari nekutenga zvisungo. Izvo zvakakosha kuti unzwisise kuti inflation yakakwira inotarisirwa inosanganiswa nekudhinda kusingadzoreki uye kugoverwa kwehuwandu hwavo. Panguva imwecheteyo, goho uye kubereka kwezvibereko zvegore gumi kuri kukura nekuda kwekukura kwe inflation:

Fig. 10

MuChina, dambudziko rakadaro harina kucherechedzwa. China, pane zvinopesana, inoderedza kusarudzika pamusika, uye inflation inodzungudza:

Fig. gumi neimwe

Kukwirisa kwepamusoro muUSA muAggregate nekudhinda Misa kwemari uye kusimuka muChina kuchauya kuzosimbisa iyo Yuan kuenda kuDollar. Nekuda kweizvozvo, mutengo wemakambani aya anokurawo mudhora zvakaenzana, izvo zvinokwezva kune vanoisa mari.

Chose: Yuan icharamba ichisimbisa dhora.

Ndiani anosanganisirwa muFXCN?

Finex Msci China Ucits ETF USD Kugovana kirasi (MCX: FXCN) iMBS kubva kuRussia Fourx Provider kumakambani eChinese. Muzvose, funhlo yemakambani mazana maviri nemakumi maviri, uye uremu hwakanyanya hunogara nezvikamu zvitatu: zvinhu zvezuva nezuva zvinodikanwa, telecom uye mari. Iyo yekutanga komisheni ndeye 0.9% pagore.

Kune makambani maviri muhomwe, yakazara inoshamisa 34% yeiyo index - Tencent naAlibaba:

Fig. 12

Tencent.

(OTC: Tcehy) ndeimwe yemakambani makuru epasi rose. Tencent anowana nhamba huru yemasevhisi akasiyana: Mitambo mbozha, nhume, mimhanzi, mimhanzi, yewebhu portal, zvitoro zveE-Commerce. Munyika, Tencent anozivikanwa nekubiridzira kweIchat - iyo yakakura Chinese messenger uye mitambo yechiRiot - subsidiary akagadzira ligi of ngano. Mahombekombe anowanikwa pane spb stock exchange chete nevashandi vanokwanisa.

Alibaba.

(Nyse: Baba) -

Zvakare rimwe remakambani makuru ehunyanzvi munyika. Alibaba ari kuita e-commerce (Taobao, Aliexpress), Clour Computer (Alibaba Clop Computer) anopa masevhisi ezvemari (allipey) uye ane makambani mazhinji eInternet neyemagetsi

Alibaba naTencent Vaviri vakura veChinese vatambi. Ivo vanoshingairira kubatikana mukukanda kwevatambi vadiki uye nekudaro vachiwedzera portfolio yavo yekudyara. Mamwe makambani ese muChina haana simba rakadaro, saka aya maviri vatambi vanobheka eChina.

Jd.com.

(NASDAQ: JD) ndeimwe yekutengeserana kukuru kwemakambani kubva kune e-commerce sector.

Meituan.

-Kubuda.

—

Iyo kambani yakaumbwa ne meituan (OTC: MPNGF) (kutumira kwezvinhu kubva kuInternet) uye Dianping (maresitorendi uye mamwe masevhisi anokwezva). Iyo kambani inotengesa chete muHong Kong Stock Exchange.

China Kuvaka Bank.

(OTC: Cichy) - Imwe yemabhangi makuru eChina uye nenyika, kubva 2015 inosanganisirwa mune rondedzero yemabhangi epasi rose akakosha. Inowanikwa chete nevanokwanisa vanokwanisa.

Ping inishuwarenzi

(OTC: PNGAAY) iboka rakakura kwazvo reinishuwarenzi munyika. Kuwedzera kune inishuwarenzi, iko kubata kunoitwa mukutarisira kweshoko uye mabhangi ebhangi. Inowanikwa chete nevanokwanisa vanokwanisa.

Baidu.

(Nasdaq: Bidu) - Iyo kambani iyo ine iyo injini hombe yekutsvaga muChina, mune yepasirese yekutsvaga Baidu Runks 4th. 98% yemari yekambani inowira paChina.

ICBC.

(HK: 1398) - China huru yekutengesa bhangi, inosanganisirwa mune yepamusoro 4 yeMabhangi makuru eChina. Chiito chinotengeswa kuShanghai uye Hong Kong Stock Convernaes.

Nio.

(Nywe: Nio) - Chinese anogadzira yemagetsi. Zvakare nio iri kuita sevanoshandira mota yavo uye inotengesa zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi ekugadzirisa zvemagetsi emotokari yemagetsi. Inowanikwa chete nevanokwanisa vanokwanisa.

KE Holdings.

(Nywe: BEKE) - Online uye Offline Puratiferi Service Services yeiyo Estate Market. Migove inowanikwa pane New York Stock Exchange.

Semhedzisiro, iyo yeRussia Investor iyo isina zvikonzero zvinogona chete kutenga zvikamu zvitatu kubva kumusoro-10: Alibaba, JD naBaid. Iko hakuna tencent mune iyi runyorwa - mumwe wevatambi vakuru vemusika weChinese, zvakare vatambi vatatu havape zvakaringana.

FXCN ndiyo nzira yakanakisa yekuita mari paChina

Nekuda kweizvozvo, isu tine matatu macroprishes kuisa pamakambani eChinese:

1. Iyo inokurumidza kukura hupfumi muna 2021.

2. Kusimbisa Yuan kuenda kuDollar.

3. Iko kusava nehanya kune makambani akafanana muUnited States.

Asi kune zvakare microprish akati wandei mukufarira FXCN:

1. Mazhinji makambani eChinese haawanikwe kune vasina kujairika vanoita mari.

2. Chikwama chinopa kukanganiswa makambani mazana maviri nemashanu.

FXCN chishandiso chakanakira veRussia veRussia, sekuti, kune rumwe ruoko, inobvumira iyo investor kuti ibetswe portfolio yakadzvanya rubu kune dhora.

Chinyorwa chakanyorwa mukubatana pamwe neUngororo Dmitry Newbikov

Verenga zvinyorwa zvepakutanga pane: mari.com