Russia inomiririra kutyisidzira kwenhengo dzese dzeNATI, funga nezvaPentagon, asi United States inoda kumanikidza kuti 'vapindure zviito zvisina mwero uye zvine hungwaru.' Musi waFebruary 16, Secretary General Stoltenberg uye akataura nezvose izvo zvave kugadzirira kusangana neRussia. Chinhu chisina kunaka hachina kuganhurirwa kuratidzwa kwekutaura - mubatanidzwa uri kuwedzera kuvapo kwemauto pakati pemiganhu yeRussia. Nhungamiro yakakosha panguva imwe chete ndeye Easter Europe: Nyika dzeBaltic dzakazivisa chinangwa chikuru cheiyo hypothetical "hutsinye hweRussia". Kuenda Sei Kuenda "Dziviriro" Dunhu Rekungwarira reCentine yeGeopolitical Zvidzidzo zveBaltic Region yeGeopolitical neDunhu reBaltic Federal University. I.kanta yuri zverev.
Chirevo chekuti Russia iri kugadzirira uye pane imwe nyaya inozoita hutsinye hwokushatirwa nenhoroondo dzebartics kuitira kuti vabatanidze mukuumbwa kwavo uye, ratidza kusava nesimba kweNATo, kana iye, akatya hondo yenyukireya, rwizi uye haruna Pindira, inzvimbo yakajairika mukuparadzira kwemazuva ano yekudzvinyirira uye yakashanda seaxiom iyo isingade chero humbowo. Kudonhedza zvishoma kwaive mushure mekugamuchirwa kweLithuania, Latvia neEstonia kuNorth Atlantic Accialce muna 2004, iyi Campaign yakatanga simba kubva muna 2014 mushure mekudzokera kuRussia yeCrimea neSevastopol.
Chiitiko ichi, icho chaive mhedzisiro yakakwana yeiyo uye eu yeiyo nyika yekubatana muKiev, haina kubatana neBaltic, uye mune zvemauto, hapana chinhu muBaltic Dunhu harina kuchinjwa. Zvakangodaro, chikonzero chakanakira chakawanikwa chisimbise uye chengetedza hukuru hweUnited States neNATO uko. Hutungamiri hweNyika dzeBaltic dzakaputa "Karaul! Tave kuda kurwisa! ", NANO anotungamira kuUnited States, chokwadika, pakarepo" akauya kuzonunura. " Russia, zvisinei, haina kuoneka pahondo, uye humbowo hwekumanikidzwa kwehondo yeRussia pane dzidziso dzeBaltic vaifanira kunge vachiyamwa kubva mumunwe.
Asi nyaya yacho yaitwa, uye dunhu reBaltic neUS uye nato kuedza kwakatendeuka kubva kune imwe nzvimbo yehurumende yeEurope yakawedzera kuwanda uye kuyambuka-kuyambuka muRussia nevavakidzani ve "zvese zvinopesana ne" zvese zvinopesana ne "zvese zvinopesana ne" zvese zvinopesana ne "zvese zvinopesana ne" zvese zvinopesana ne "zvese zvinopesana ne" zvese zvinopesana ne "zvese zvinopesana ne" zvese zvinopesana ne "zvese zvinopesana ne" zvese zvinopesana ne "zvese zvinokambaira" Uye mu "pfupa remhuka yeEurope" a la Balkan ye kutanga kwezana rapfuura.
Mumakore akazotevera, nyaya yekuronga kudzivirira kweiyo Baltic States kubva ku "kurwisa kweRussia" (ane mukana weRussia haana kubvunzwa uye kuve mumwe weanonyanya kuwedzerwa munharaunda yemauto mune East Flange. . Zviri pachena kuti zvirongwa zveNato chaicho chakavanzika [1], uye zvingave zvinoshamisa kutarisira neimwe nzira. Nekudaro, zvikumbiro zvakanzwika pachena (kubva kwandaitona zvakanyatsojeka nekuda kwehuwandu hweruzhinji rwebhuku racho), zvinoita kunge zvichiri kupihwa imwe pfungwa yekuti United States neNATO vari kuita sei muBaltic States Uye mauto ayo nezvombo zveAlliance zvinogona kuwedzera kuoneka mune aya nyika (pamwe nemuPoland muvakidzani). Zvinyorwa zvacho zvakatsaurirwa kune izvi, chikamu chekutanga chacho chinomiririrwa nekutarisa kwako.
Rand Corporation Chirevo
Muzhizha ra2014 uye muchirimo cha2015, iyo nyika inozivikanwa American "Rand Calmica Migumisiro yacho yakanga ichishungurudza iyo natu: Mamiriro ezvinhu panguva iyoyo, mauto eRussia akasvika kumafurati eRiga uye (kana) Tallinn 36-60 maawa mushure mekutanga kwevakadzi [2]. Mitambo yeMauto yakasimbisa iyo yakambozivikanwa kushaya simba kwemauto eBaltic States: Nhamba isina kukwana, kushaikwa kweiyo mhizha uye kushaikwa kwemhepo kudzivirira kune zvinangwa zvekureba. Mhedziso yakagumiswa kuti kuitira kuti ukudzivise kukura kwezviitiko zveNATO muzvikwata zveBaltic, zvinosanganisira kutsigirwa nemweya wemhepo, kudzivirira kwemhepo, kuzvidzivirira kwemhepo uye zvimwe zvekutsigira.Uye kwete ese mauto aya, maererano nevanyori veMushumo, vaifanira kunge vakave vakamanikidzwa. Nekudaro, apo kutyisidzirwa kwekutyisidzirwa, kanenge kwevhiki, NATO ine nguva yekuendesa pamusoro pemhepo kune iyo Baltide yeBrogade kurwisa Brown kubva kuItari uye 82nd Airborne Digine kubva kuNorth Carolina, pamwe neyakafanana Zvikamu zvemauto kubva kune dzimwe nyika nyika, kusanganisira United Kingdom uye France. Iyo mbozhanhare anti-tank moto inogona kupa iyo rotary aviation aviation (helikopta) US brigade yakavakirwa kuGermany. Uye zvakare, zvikamu zvinorema nemotokari dzakatorwa zvaidiwa. Chirevo chakati wandei zvisarudzo zvinokwanisika: kugara uchigara zvakazara zvine hushamwari uye nehunyanzvi hwekuti brigade muBaltic nyika; Govera makatehadzika arehohousing nezvombo uye zvishandiso muPoland, nyika dzeBaltics kana kuGermany, uye nzvimbo yemunhu ichachinjisa kumhepo padanho rekutanga. Vimba nekuvapo kwekutenderera kana kushandisa kumwe kusanganiswa kwesweve pamusoro apa.
Izvo zvinofanirwa kutaurwa kuti mhedzisiro yekutsvagisa kwekambani yeDorand yekambani yakakwana yekutsoropodza. Nekudaro, semuenzaniso, vanyori veLatvia Bens Latkovskis muna Kurume 2016 vakacherekedza kuti mamiriro ezvinhu haana tariro serinopokana nemushumo. Akaratidza kuti kana modeling isina kukohwa kana zvinhu zvisina kukwana zvakadai sezvinetso zveRussia, izvo zvichadzikisa kufamba kwetambo, uko madziva mazhinji, swamp uye nzizi, mukana wekushandisa zvese zvekushandisa zvekushandisa zvekushanda (uye kwete zvekunzi chete, kusvika padunhu reBaltic muEastity Army (muMitambo yeMauto ePolish, haina Kupindira mukukonana, uyezve, zviito zvehondo muLithuania uye kutenderedza dunhu reKalindenr kumashure vakaonekwa sevanofungidzirwa) uye zvichingodaro.
Iye munyori akanyora kuti Russia haina kugadzirira kupokana nenyika dzeBaltic, uye kunyangwe dziviriro yavo zvichida kusimbisa zvakanyanya, kunyangwe pasina izvi, kutorwa kwenzvimbo dzeRussia hakuzove kwakanyanyisa kuwanda. zviwanikwa zvemauto pakubata kwayo.
Asi, sezviri pachena, basa rekambani yeDorand yakanga isinga fungidziro yemauto (siya kuseri kwemabhureki idzo Russia rakanga risiri kuzotora maBaltic States ipapo uye haasi kuenda kuuritsiriro yemufananidzo wekufungidzira we MaThe Russian matangi ari mumahara eRiga kana Tallinn 36-60 maawa mushure mekutanga kwehondo. Uye kuti izvi zviitike, akakumbira mamwe manyorerwo manomwe ekuwedzera pamwe nekusimbiswa, izvo zvaifanirwa kuita pamabhiriyoni emadhora mazana maviri emadhora. Bhajeti yeUS, uye inodarika muunganidzwa we $ 1 trillion. Asi, sezvavanotaura, nzara inouya ichidya uye ichinetsa - kutanga.
Chirevo "Kuzadza Baltic Band Natani"
Muna May 2016, International Defense uye Security Center (ICDS) Tallinn, Estonia) yakaburitswa mushumo "kuzadza balltic ball". Vanyori vake vaive veAmerican pandlele Wesley Clark (Wesley K. Clark), aimbova mutungamiriri wepamusoro weEurope (saceur) (USA); Jüri Luik, Director weInternational Defense uye Security Center (Estonia) [3]; Hermansky rams rams rams (egon ramms), aimbova mutungamiriri weakabatana mauto eNATO muBrynsum; Sir Richard Shiirreff (Richard Shiirreff), iyo yaimbova mutevedzeri mukuru wemutungamiriri weiyo NATO United Mauto eEurope (Dsaceur). Vakaita huwandu hwakaringana uye hunoshanda hwechiuto hunopesana munyika dzeBaltic, vachitenda kuti ndiyo yega nzira yekuvimbisa kuchengeteka mukutarisana neRussia kubva kuRussia. Panguva imwecheteyo, zvakacherechedzwa kuti kana iwe uchigona kuvimbisa kuvapo kwemasangano ekubatanidza pakutenderera, saka hama yekupokana kune iyo fomati yekuvapo (kutenderera kana kugara) haifanire kuenda kumberi.
Sekureva kwevanyori veiyi mushumo, kungave kwakazvimiririra kwakakwana kwekuparadzira kweANo Battalions kuti uwedzere nzvimbo mune yega yega nyika dzeBaltic pane imwe brigade. Uye zvakare, zvakakurudzirwa kuwedzera uye mauto eAmerica - zvirinani kune imwe nguva-yenguva yeGreattalion boka mune imwe neimwe yevaBaltic nyika.
Izvo zvakanorwiswa zvakare kudzokorora kune dzimwe nyika dzeBaltic dziri kweToltational hwaro, vamwe US marine incantry zvikamu kubva mudunhu reko yepadenga. Zvakacherechedzwa kuti atove mumatanho ekutanga emauto ezvekushandisa (sof) achatamba chinzvimbo chakakosha mukuita chero mashandiro ezvibvumirano zve "nzvimbo dzekurambidzwa nekudzoreredzwa uye manejimendi" (A2 / AD), pamwe nebasa rakakosha mukuona zviito zvinoona kuti Russia, sezvakataurwa, zvaigona kuedza kuvanza pasi peganda re "varume vakasvibira" kana "varwi".
Iyo Patrol Air Space Patrol Mission Baltic Airplanes Air Polic Polic Plet yakakumbirwa kuti ishandise kuita basa rekudzivirira kweirspace nekuiswa kwemamwe mauto uye zvinoreva mune imwe mauto. Gungwa rakakumbirwa kuti riwedzere kuvapo kwemapoka echigarire mumapoka egungwa (snf). Mapoka aya aifanirwa kusanganisira ngarava inokwanisa kushandisa kwenguva refu-mhando mitsetse, pamwe nekuzvidzivirira uye kuunganidza nzvimbo yeRussia A2 / Ad in the Kalindenst Dunhu.
Kusimbisa iyo Yepamberi YeHuripo yeNAT muBaltic States
Bhuku remhedzisiro yekudzidza kweDand uye nhamba yemamwe mishumo, pamwe nekusahadzika kwenyika dzeBaltic vachipindirwa nenyaya yeRussia, chinyorwa 5 cheChirungu cheNorth Atlantic chibvumirano chichaitwa [5 ] akatungamira kuchokwadi kuti muWasto Summit muWarsaw muna Chikunguru 2016 chakawoneka kuvapo kweLitoania, Latvia, Estonia nePoland. Nguva yekugara yeiyo Battalion Dinat mapoka muPoland uye maBaltic States haana kushoma munguva. Battalions (kurwisa mapoka ekuvandudzwa kwekuvapo kwaNATO), kuiswa pakati paJanuary naApril 2017, muPoland (muLitvia (muLatvia) neUnited Kingdom (muEstonia).
Kubva paOctober 2020, huwandu hwakazara hwemapoka ehondo evasina kuvimbiswa kuvapo kweNATO muBaltic nyika dzaive nevanhu makumi matatu nenhanhatu. Mapoka ari muBaltic States uye Poland anoiswa pasi peNANO NORTH-EETH LETSINATION Division (MND-NE) muPolish Guta reElblag. Kuvapo kwemapoka ehondo kunoitirwa, kutanga pane zvese, kudzikamisa hutungamiri hwenyika dzeBaltic, kuti nyika dzadzo dziri pasi pekudzivirira kwaNATO, uye kechipiri, kuendesa chiratidzo chinoenderana cheRussia.
Mukukosha, sevhisi yemapoka ekurwa anoita serudzi rwehutachiona. Kana kurwiswa zvakananga kunoitika paAmerican, chiGerman, Canadian, veBritain nevamwe veBritain kubva munyika dzeMubatanidzwa, izvi zvinovimbisa mutemo wemauto maererano nechinyorwa 5 cheScorntic chibvumirano.
Nekudaro, pekugara mumapoka eBaltic mapoka ekurwa kwevanhu vakasimbiswa kwaNATO, haana kugadzirisa matambudziko emauto akaratidzwa mumushumo weCustomer Corration (Remangwana "panguva imwe chete yakaziviswa pachena zvinoita kunge zvisingadzivisiki sekuchinja kwemwaka). Kugona kurwa kwehondo yeNATO vaive uye kuramba vakashoma. Vanogona kuzvidzivirira, vane vamwe vanozvidzivirira, uye zvakare vane nzira yekudzivirira kwemhepo radius uye (mune mashoma zviyero) artillery. Sezvo akanyora gare gare Dr. Ulrich Kün kubva kuVienna Center yekusagadzikana uye nhandare "(mauto akaderera pane iye anopikisa, ane basa raani rinoratidza kuzvipira kwe Kudzivirira mabiko kumhinduro yemidziyo yekusagadzikana mune ramangwana. Kana iri yekurwiswa, ivo vanofanirwa kudzora kusimudzira kwemauto emubatiri, achihwina nguva yekubatanidza uye kuendesa mamwe mauto anodiwa kuti aroverertatack. Nekudaro, kuita mumakarati manhamba asina madhiri eStiyo ane makomputa akakwana, zvingave zvisina musoro.
Pamusoro pekukurukurirana kwakaramba kuchiwedzera kuvapo kwemauto kweUnited States uye NATO muBaltic States mushure mekuputika ipapo kweANo Battalions - mune yechipiri chikamu chezvinyorwa.
Yuri zvereev, mumiriri weGeographical sayenzi, mukuru wepakati peGeopolitical zvidzidzo zveBaltic Dunhu reGeopolitical neDunhu reBaltic Federy University. Immanuel Kanta
[1] Nguva yekupedzisira kuronga kudzivirira kwePoland neBaltic nyika, sezvakataurwa, yakaunzwa naNATO kutanga kwaJuly 2020.
[2] nekuda kwechimwe chikonzero, Lithuania, Belarus neDunhu reKalindenradhi vakasara kunze kwekufungidzira. Izvo zvinogumbura zvakaitwa chete paEstonia neLatvia kubva mundima huru yeRussia. Nezve chirevo ichi chakashoropodzwa mumatero emauto eAmerica.
[3] Zvino shumirawo mushumiri wokudzivirira. Pakutanga, positi yemushumiri wezvemazvipiriso zvekunze zvakaitwa katatu uye yaive mumiriri wechigarire weEstonia kunaNATO.
[4] Zvinotyisidzira kushandisa kushandiswa kwezvinhu zvakajairika (zvisiri-nuclear) zvombo.
Hutungamiri hwenyika dzeBaltic vakatya kuti mukuitika kuhondo neRussia, nyika inotungamira yeNorth atlantic Accantic Accialce yaisazoda, kufa neNarva "uye manejimendi eaya anoti achaita Siya mabhebhi pasina rutsigiro rwechiuto, kunyangwe nhengo yavo muNATO.
[6] neshanduko yemapoka muboka rehondo mwedzi mitanhatu yega yega.