Musi waFebruary 11-12, gungano revanhu vese vakagara. Iyo foramu yaive yekupa hurukuro nevanhu vachipesana nemusana dambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika uye vanoreva mafambiro ekugadzirisa kukosha kwekukunda kwayo. Kunyanya, Moscow akamuona senge chikamu cheiyo msk maitiro pane shanduko mubumbiro. Mukupedzisira, vatori vechikamu venini uye kuti masangano akataura sei mugwara reBelarus, muongorori, muongorori, mutsvagiri wenhoroondo yeNational Academy yeScience , Denis Bukonkin.
Zvakataurwa pamusoro peill
Musangano wevanhu vese veBelarususian (vn) zvakapera, izvo zvakaziviswa nezviremera zveBelarus sehukuru hwenzvimbo dzevanhu mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura mumakore mashanu apfuura. Iyi foramu yaunganidza nhamba yakakura kwazvo yevamiriri kubva munzvimbo dzakasiyana dzenyika. Asi tsika yekusarudza pachayo inoratidza kuti chiitiko ichi chakasarudzwa mukuwanda kwazvo kwesimba rakavimbika revanhu.Iyo pachayo yakanangwa nekukurukurirana kwekutanga uye zvirevo zveMinsk official, iyo pakutanga kwechiitiko haina kutadza kutaura mutungamiri wenyika yeBelarus Alexander Lukashenko. Panyaya iyi, inonyanya kufadza uye inodzidzisa yaive yekutaura kwevamiriri vehurumende yazvino.
Nehurombo, panguva yeVNS, shanduko yekunyorwa kwebumbiro inofungidzirwa nezviremera hazvina kuendeswa kune zviremera, izvo zvinofanirwa kuve sarudzo yekutanga yefotendem. Lukashenko akazvigura panguva yekuratidzwa kuvimbiso yekugovera masimba ebumbiro uye gadzira shanduro yebumbiro ye2021. Nekuda kwereferendamu pane iyo shanduko yemutemo wenyika ichave yekupfuura kupfuura mu Pakutanga 2022, uyezve, kana zvichienderana nesarudzo dzemuno munaJanuary. Panguva imwecheteyo, mutungamiri wenyika akaudzwa kuti Belarus angaramba achiramba ari mutungamiri wenyika. Panguva imwecheteyo, yaitarisirwa kuve chikumbiro chekubatanidza huwandu hweBumbiro reBumbiro senzira yepamusoro yemumiriri wenyika. Asi ichi chishuwo chevamiriri veCongress chinoramba chiri chishuwo kudzamara maEdits akakodzera aendeswa kune iyo itsva yeBumbiro reBumbiro.
Saka, zvinonyanya kufadza uye zvinodzidzisa zviitiko zveMutungamiri, Gurumiti Mhuri Yokunze, Misangano yeCGB Ivan Calcher. Uyezve, pakanga paine nzvimbo uye kutaura kusingatarisirwi nemukuru wechiremba Anna kanopatskaya, iyo yakanga isina kubatanidzwa muPrame officytast.
Simba remagetsi uye akawanda-vector
Kubva pakutaura kwemutungamiriri, zvaigoneka kuziva kuti shanduko yesimba muBelarus ichiri kuitika. Panguva imwecheteyo, imwe yemamiriro ezvinhu ayo ichave isinganzwisisike yevatsigiri veLukashenko mune chiitiko icho mauto ezvematongerwo enyika achiuya nesimba. Nezviparadzi, musoro wenyika wakatarisana nekugadziridzwa kwemitemo yeBelarusiy, iyo, zvisinei, yakatsetseka zvakanyanya.
Saka, zvakacherechedzwa kuti kuti Belarusians "akagadzirira kugadzirira kuvaka hukama nenyika dzese nemabatiro ehunyanzvi hwekuenzana, kuremekedzana, kusapindira mune zvemukati." Maererano neMutungamiriri, ivo vanofarirawo "vane hukama hwakasiyana siyana neenyika yekunze, kutanga yehupfumi hwese." Panguva imwecheteyo, hukama neEuropean Union zvakakosha, uyo Belarus "muganho murefu uye huwandu hwakareba hwekudyidzana, hwemagariro, tsika uye pakupedzisira vezvematongerwo enyika". Haina shoma yeiri vekirini yekudzvinyirira ndeye nyika dzeanonzi "refu arc", uko nzvimbo yakakosha iri "pedyo, kunyangwe geography, uye ane hushamwari" China. Panguva imwecheteyo, iyo huru yehupfumi pamwe nehurongwa hwehurumende "hwaive" Russia.
Mibvunzo Kubatanidzwa
Hukama naRussia zvaiwanzozvitsaurira kune chikamu chakasiyana cheLukashenko kutaura. Kunyanya, kukosha kwehunyanzvi hweBerlus-humbowo hweRussia hwenzvimbo yese, kuchengetedza kusimba uye rugare mazviri. Zvinoratidzwa kuti Belarus anotsigira uye achaita zvehupfumi kuwirirana muPost-Soviet nzvimbo zvese mune bilateral uye multisteral fomati.Panguva imwecheteyo, zvakacherechedzwa kuti mubatanidzwa weBerlaus neRussia kubva mukubatana muEaeu uye Cis inosiyaniswa nekubatana uye dzimwe nzvimbo, kusanganisira zvematongerwo enyika uye kudzivirira. Uye zvino, maererano nekutsvagira kwenyika yazvino, kupfuura 70% yeBearusians vari kuunganidza neRussia.
Panguva imwecheteyo, inosimbiswa kuti nhengo dzakagadzirwa mukati mechimiro cheMweya wekubatanidzwa hausati washanda chengetedzo yavo, uye saka vachiri kutanga kutaura nezve shanduko yavo.
Mumushumo wake, musoro wenyika zvakakanganisa hupfumi hwehukama dingindira mukati meEAEU, kucherechedza kukosha kwekuzadzisa maitiro emusika wekuumbwa kwemusika. Muzvido zveBerlus - kusikwa kwehukuru hwehupfumi hwenyika mukati meEaeu: "Zvinodiwa kuti ubatsirwe nekuvaka kweMaurasian, zvakanyatsokosha kuti ubatsirwe, synergistic maitiro a Musika wakajairika uye unoshamwaridzana zvisingakwanisi zvehupfumi zvemapati. Ipapo eaeu ichave inoratidzika kune vamwe vevamwe vakabatana, uye kwete chete mune yekutanga-soviet nzvimbo. " Zvaive zvakadaro mhedzisiro yekuti nhangemutanomanikidza kwechibvumirano cheEAP chakanangwa na2020, uye mutsara uyu wakagadzirirwa kuenderera mberi mune ramangwana.
Kana iri yeCoondualthweal of Dealed of yakazvimirira, ipapoka, maererano nemusoro wenyika, kunyangwe paine matambudziko ekuchiva, iyo inochengetedza zvizere kukosha sesangano reruwa. "Chinhu chakakosha chekutanga kuBelarus muCollwealth zvinoramba zvisina kuchinjika Nyanzvi yeColarus muCis inotumirwa kuzadzisa ichi chinangwa muna 2021
Maererano neMutungamiriri, muchiuto uye zvehondo-technical-technical kushandira pamwe neRussia nedzimwe nyika dzenyika dzichaenderera zvakare. Panguva imwecheteyo, iyo official Minsk ichasimbisa kugona kwekudzivirira nyika kumanikidza zvemauto-zvematongerwo enyika muEast European Dunhu.
Lukashenko akasimbisa kuti muPoland, nyika dzeBaltics panzvimbo dzechisingaperi mauto emarudzi mazhinji, kune akawanda ehondo dzekuvandudza misangano yakakura kubva kuAmerican Continent kuEurope. Mavhiki mashoma apfuura muPoland akatoita mashandiro ezvechando, panguva iyo iyo ramangwana reTato Hondo neboka reMauto eRussia neBelarus akafungidzirwa pamakomputa.
"Kushandisa dzidziso idzi uye iyo yakasimuka muPoland, vanokurudzira kuwedzera kugoverwa kweuto ravo muPoland neTATO mauto," akadaro mutungamiri wechiBelarussian. Semhinduro, iyo Inoshanda Inoshanda "West 2021" inotariswa. Yakazivisa shanduko mune pfungwa yekuchengetedza nyika yenyika.
Export uye Extremismism
Chirevo chemusoro weshoko rekunze reMakeya, izvo zvaikurudzira kubvisa gadziriro pachishuwo chekusapindira kubva muBumbiro Rekuramba, raisave risinganyatsonakidza. Izvi zvinonyatsoreva kurambwa kwenhamba dzekutanga kwekutanga izvo zvinofanirwa kunge zvakavhura belarus mune yeEast European ingalogue yeAustria, Switzerland kana Finland. Minister anotendawo kuti mumamiriro ezvinhu emazuva ano zvinokurudzirwa kushandura chimiro chekutumira kunze maererano nechitendero chechitatu - chetatu, apo magwaro ezvitatu, maEurou, iyo nyika yeEurope, nyika dzePurc. Mukufunga kwake, zvakafanira kuisa pfungwa yekuburitsa kunze kwenyika mumisika yeEAEU, uye hafu yasara yakatsemuka pakati peEU uye nyika dzeiyo arc. Panguva imwecheteyo, Makay anotsigira kuchengetedza kwehuwandu-huwandu hwenzvimbo yekutanga yeiyo nyika yekune dzimwe nyika.
Nezviparadzi, zvinodikanwa kuti utendeke pakutaura kweanofona, uko semusoro wemasevhisi makuru epasi rose akazivisa kuvapo kwehuwandu hwemapoka emagandanga iwo anoverengeka anoverengeka muBelarus. Saka, munguva pfupi iri kutevera inogona kutarisirwa kuti nyaya nyowani dzatanga kurwisa varatidziri pakupomera kukuru. Zvinokwanisika kuti chiitiko ichi chinotonhorera chevanhu vachidzosera pakuratidzira muchidimbu muchirimo che2021 panguva imwe chete, zvinokwanisika kuti iyi application ichashandiswa se Info indasitiri yekusimudzira ruzivo nezve "Flywheel kudzokorora" uye kudiwa kwekuwedzera kwekuwedzera.
Zviitwa zvevamwe nhume uye mhedziso
Pakati pekutaura kwevamwe nhume, kukwidzwa kwaYuri Vorkreseensky kukwezva kutarisisa zvisina musoro. Aitarisirwa chaizvo kupa ambosti kune vese vasungwa vezvematongerwo enyika vanopfidza. Nekudaro, chokwadi chekupfidza, zvinoreva kuti kunakidza kumutungamiri wenyika nechikumbiro chekuregerera, uye kurambidzwa chaiko pane chero zviitiko zvematongerwo enyika munyika. Mukuwedzera, inokurudzirwa kufonera imwe yematare mukuremekedza Russia, nekudaro kukoshesa mupiro kwaro kune kuchengetedza kwehukama uye rusununguko rweBelarus.
Mune vamwe vamiriri, nhume dzainge dzisiri peremi, uye panzvimbo pesimba rekuvimbika maererano nesimba razvino uye rakatarisana nenyaya dzakatorwa, kana mafungiro emutauri haana kumbobvira adzingwa nemukuru chinzvimbo.
Iyi inogona kunge iri njodzi huru yemaminitsi eMinsk yeMinsk, sezvo izvi zvingave nemafungiro ekushaikwa kwenzvimbo dzakakomba pane imwe kana imwe nyaya, kana kusaziva munharaunda nezve rutsigiro rwechirongwa chazvino. Parizvino, mapikicha mazhinji, pane zvinopesana, anoratidza chikamu chakakosha chenzanga uye polarization yayo. Hufakazi hwe izvi hunogona kushandira, kusanganisira chokwadi chekuti, maererano neongororo yakarairwa, isingasviki hafu yehuwandu hunotsigira danho remutungamiri kupa musangano webumbiro.
Kusavapo kwekukurukurirana kwakakomba uye kukakavara kunogona kuita kuti zvinyore simba, asi kwete kuratidza chimiro chaicho cheimwe dambudziko renharaunda yeBelarussian. Kazhinji, mairini akazadzisa basa rayo uye akava rudzi rwemhinduro yekupikisa zviito kunze kwenyika. Ndokusaka, sezviri pachena, EU akakwanisa kutaura zviri pamutemo kuti haakurukurei musangano semutumbi wemuenzaniso uye mhinduro dzayo hadzina simba uye nemutemo.
Kune rimwe divi, kusarudzwa kweAps hakusi kwekumanikidzwa kuurayiwa, uye musangano wega wega hauna chimiro chebumbiro panguva yacho. Naizvozvo, kutarisira dzimwe shanduko dzinoshamisa kumhedzisiro dzaro ingangodaro isina musoro.
Denis Bonkin, muongorori weInstitute yenhoroondo yeNational Academy yeScience of Belarus, Director yeruzhinji Bumbiro "Pakati Pokunze Policy uye Chengetedzo"