Ubukungu
Ubukungu bw'U Burusiya bwaje muri coronacrisis mu buryo bwiza, bwemerera igihe cyiza cyane nta kibazo kidasanzwe ku rwego rwihariye ku rwego rwa Macro, ndetse no gutera inkunga ingamba zikenewe. Muri icyo gihe, guverinoma y'Uburusiya yakoraga cyane, yagaragaye mu buryo buke cyane bwakoreshejwe mu ngengo y'imari. Kubera iyo mpamvu, kwishyuza ingengo yimari mugisubizo cya 2020 byagaragaye ko ari bito niba ugereranije nibindi bihugu. Ibi kandi byorohewe nuko kugabanuka muri GDP byari biteganijwe, harimo kubera ibiranga imiterere yubukungu bwikirusiya (umugabane ugereranije wa serivisi zishingiye ku garazi, hakarusha urugero ikoreshwa ryimbonerahamwe ya karantine.
Umutwaro muremure wiyongereye cyane cyane, ariko wagumye ku rwego rwo hasi cyane, kandi ibikoresho by'imyenda by'ishyirahamwe ry'Uburusiya byakomeje imiterere y'umutungo urinda muri bo. Ibibazo bimwe na bimwe byo gufatanya cyangwa kwishyura umwenda wa federasiyo y'Uburusiya birashobora guhagararirwa gusa mu gihe cyo kwishura (ibihano byinshi), ubundi buryo bufatika), andi mahitamo afatika yo guteza imbere imyenda y'inguzanyo ku kirusiya nyuma y'ejo hazaza , ngwino utoroshye cyane.
Ibipimo by'inguzanyo biva mu bigo bishinzwe iz'ibigo bitatu byose bikomoka ku rwego rw'ishoramari, ibyateganijwe birahagaze. Isoko zishobora guhuzwa ninshingano zo muburusiya zigereranijwe nkiya. Mu gihe gityaye cyo gushushanya isoko, Eurobonds zo mu Burusiya yahinduwe intege nke kurusha ibindi bice by'isoko ryisi yose Eurobonds y'ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amarondera.
Umurenge
Umubare w'ingamba z'ingengo y'imari wahawe na Guverinoma kurwanya ingaruka za Covid-19 icyorezo muri 2020 zigera kuri 3.5-4.5% ya GDP. Umubumbe wiyoroshya cyane n'ibipimo by'ibindi bihugu, kandi inkunga yari igamije, ariko
Ikigaragara ni uko byageze ku ntego zimwe.
Kugarura ibiciro byamavuta byagize ingaruka nziza mugusuzuma leta yubukungu numutungo wuburusiya. Optimism itera isura yinkingo nyinshi kuva covid-19.
Ingaruka zihariye zishoboka ngo zishobore gushimangira igitutu cyo kwera mu Burusiya nyuma yo gutsinda demokarasi Joe Bayden mu matora ya perezida muri Amerika. Ariko, kubwikibazo gikomeye ku isoko, ibihano bigomba kuba ingirakamaro cyane, birenze urwego rwibintu byihariye.
Ibipimo by'inguzanyo byigenga
Ibipimo by'inguzanyo by'Uburusiya ndetse no mu bihe bya coronacris ntabwo ari ikibazo. Guverinoma y'Uburusiya yubahirije politiki itoroshye na politiki y'amafaranga, mugihe ikomeza ubuyambaro burenze muri sisitemu ya banki. Ihuriro nk'iryo ntiremera kwegeranya ingaruka za sisitemu mu bukungu, kandi ingaruka zabo ku kibazo mu gihe cy'imibare ya karantine ntiyigeze yumva. Nubwo Guverinoma yagombaga korora umwanya we, yongera ikiguzi cy'ingengo y'imari, kandi Banki Nkuru y'Uburusiya yagabanije isoko ryingenzi ndetse no kwihutisha ifaranga, izi ngamba ntizifatwa nkaho Impinduka muburyo nyamukuru kuri politiki yimari naya.
Iteganyagihe ryimpinduka zamakuru yinguzanyo yigenga: nziza
• Kubera imyaka 2020, igabanya ingengo yimari ituma yoroheje kuruta ibindi bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere (reba 3)
• Umutwaro muremure mubijyanye na GDP wegereje 18% ni agaciro gake cyane. Inkomoko nyamukuru yo gutera inkunga defisit - umwenda wangiza (Ofz), kandi umugabane wintare muri 2020 wacunguwe nabaturage. Gushyira ikodeshwa kw'imyenda yigenga mu mafaranga y'amahanga byari igice.
• Imiterere y'ifaranga y'imyenda ikomeje guhindura ubwiyongere mu mugabane w'imyenda ya Ruble, umugabane wabo wiyongereye kugera kuri 78.3% (cm, 2). Ingano yimyenda yigenga ihuza GDP ifite 3,5% gusa - urwego rwo hasi rwibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere.
• Gahunda yo kwishyura irasa cyane, yose Segaba ndetse ninshingano zamafaranga rusange zirimo ububiko bwivunjisha (reba 1)
• Konti y'ibikorwa muri iki gihe muri 2020 yagabanutse, ariko impamvu nyamukuru yari ibiciro bigufi bya peteroli n'inshingano byafashwe munsi ya OPEC + kugabanya umusaruro.
Umurenge wa banki n'imigegara
• Banki nkuru ya federasiyo y'Uburusiya kuva muri Nyakanga 2019 yatangiye kugabanya gahunda y'ingenzi kuva ku 7.75% barwanya ingaruka zo kugabanya amafaranga, kandi ibyabaye mu mpeshyi y'umwaka ushize bahatiwe gukora cyane. Ku nama ya Nyakanga, igipimo cy'ingenzi cyagabanutse kugera kuri 4.25%, nyuma yuko umugenzuzi yafashe inyuma yinyuma yihuta. Dukurikije ibyavuye muri 2020, igipimo cyingenzi cyari munsi yifaranga bwa mbere kuva 2014 (reba 1).
• Indangantego zo gutunganya ibipimo ziri munsi yamanota 50, hafi ngaho, aho cyari imbere ya coronacris. Umusaruro w'inganda ubwawo, uko, ariko, kugurisha byagarutsweho igice gusa. Ariko, kuzirikana kugabanya gukomera, kugarura buhoro buhoro ibikorwa byubucuruzi (reba 2).
• Ikigereranyo cy'imyenda mvugo ya sosiyete kuri Ebbida iri munsi ya 1x, ndetse no kwiyongera kw'imyenda y'imyenda, nubwo hari ubwiyongere bw'amasaruro Hamwe n'umwenda muri rusange, ubukungu bukomeje kuba hasi (reba 3).
• Urwego rwa banki rurateguwe rwose. Ikigereranyo cya kamere ihagije ni 12.7% muri Nzeri 2020, akaba ari agaciro keza cyane (urwego ruto rwinshi rwa Basel-III rufatwa nka 10.5%).
• Urwego rw'inguzanyo z'ibibazo ku rwego rw'amabanki rw'Uburusiya rugenda rwiyongera kandi ruri ku rwego rwa 9.3%, arirwo rwego rwisoko rikomeye, ariko ahubwo ni agaciro gake mumyaka 5 ishize. Umubare w'ibigega byatanzwe ni ukuvuga 13.8% by'umurwa mukuru, birimo ingaruka zigarukira ku murwa mukuru w'amabanki hamwe n'umwanditsi w'imyenda. Reba 4).
Guteganya impinduka mu mezi y'inguzanyo mu nzego z'ibigo n'imitsi: harahagaze.
Soma ingingo zumwimerere kuri: gushora.com