Ukuboza 2020, Bruxelles na Beijing Ibiganiro byarangiye ku masezerano y'ishoramari, bigomba kuvamo "ubucuruzi buringaniye n'amahirwe y'ubucuruzi". Usibye umurimo w'ingenzi mu rwego rw'ishoramari, inyandiko irashobora gukemura ikibazo cyo kwanduza ikoranabuhanga, ikwirakwizwa ry'inkunga, kandi kandi risunika Ubushinwa kwemeza amasezerano mpuzamahanga ku mirimo mpuzamahanga. Ariko, mubumwe bwiburayi ubwabwo, no muri Washington hari umurwandiko ukura cyane. Uburayi bushobora gutsinda ubwumvikane no kuva mu gishinwa ndetse n'impande y'Abanyamerika, yashimye Porofeseri w'Ubushinwa n'Umuyobozi w'ikigo cy'Abashinwa muri Groul College ya London Kerry.
- Yashyizweho n'itegeko ry'isi rifite ibibazo - hariho amagambo menshi nkaya abanyapolitiki bo mu nzego zitandukanye n'abahagarariye umuryango w'inzobere. Ariko, iyi "isi nshya" isobanura muburyo burambuye ntamuntu wafashwe. Abahanga muri politiki ni iki kandi ni ibihe bibazo, uko bibona, bizagomba guhangana n'ibihugu nyuma yo kuzuza icyorezo?
- Icyahangayikishije cyane nuko icyorezo cyerekanaga isi, kigabanijwe hagati ya Amerika hamwe nabafatanyabikorwa babo nabafatanyabikorwa, naho Ubushinwa, bwigunze, ariko burasa neza kandi burambye kandi burambye kandi burambye kandi burambye kandi birambye Covid-19 cyane kandi ntidushidikanya ku kibazo cy'Ubushinwa: Ntidushobora kwirengagiza aho dutuye, aho tuba hose, kandi nyamara benshi mu isi ntibyoroshye gukorana na we kubera indangagaciro zatanzwe.
Birakwiye guhitamo inzira ya pragmatike no kumenya aho dushobora gufatanya n'aho tugomba kwemera kutemeranya, cyangwa aho twerekeza gukora ibitekerezo: kwanga Ubushinwa mubyo ari byo byose? 2021, birashoboka, ntazatanga igisubizo gisobanutse kuri iki kibazo, ariko bigomba kuduha ibisobanuro byerekana uburyo dushobora kujya mubufatanye kandi nicyo buryo butandukanye.
- Nigute intambara yubucuruzi yakomeje hagati y'Ubushinwa na Amerika bigira ingaruka kuri gahunda y'amahanga, ku isi?
- Intambara yo gucuruza yimuriwe ku rwego rwa Coronavirus. Noneho mubyukuri biterwa na yo kuva mu bukungu. Niba Ubushinwa bukomeza gukura neza, na Amerika, Uburayi nibindi bihugu bizakomeza kwiyongera cyangwa kwiheba, hanyuma ibipimo byintambara yubucuruzi 2017-2020. Impinduka. Ikindi kibazo gikomeye kizaba ikibazo cyurwego rwamerika nubundi bukungu bukomeye bushobora gukemura ibyo batumvikana na politiki nubushinwa muburyo bwo kwinjiza umubano wabo.
Nyuma ya Covidi-19, ibiciro byo kwigunga by'Ubushinwa bizakura. Niba ibihugu bifuza gukora ibi, ugomba gusobanukirwa niki kigomba kubishyura - kandi ko bagomba kubana nayo. Kwicara inyuma y'uruzitiro hanyuma uvuge hamwe na mantra isanzwe "kuganira n'Ubushinwa ku bibazo tutabyemeranya, ahubwo dukorera muri utwo turere tubyemera" bizagora cyane.
- Ni iki kizahinduka mu mibanire ya Amerika n'Ubushinwa iyobowe na Baiden? Birakwiye ko dutegereje "reboot" mubucuti bwibihugu byombi?
- Ubuyobozi bwa Byyden bushobora kugenda kimwe nuburyo bukomeye nka Trump, kandi ku rugero runaka Obama kuri We - kwibanda ku Bushinwa nkibibazo byingenzi geopoliele. Ariko duhereye ku majwi ya diplomasi no gukora ku makimbirane menshi hazabaho itandukaniro.
Imvugo itagira ikinyabupfura kandi yemeza ibihe bya pompeo na Trump, birashoboka cyane ko izagenda kera. Ni nako bigenda ku makarita y'Abanyamerika "wenyine." Bizatuma ibintu bimwe bigorana mu Bushinwa dukora umuvuduko mpuzamahanga uhuze.
Ariko kuri Biden, ikibazo kizaba kimeze kurwego rwigihugu n'umuryango, nka EU, bahatirwa gutandukana mubice bimwe byingenzi muri Amerika kubwimpamvu zubukungu. Tumazeyo, mugihe amasezerano yubucuruzi ya EU nu Bushinwa ashobora gusozwa muminsi mike yakurikiyeho, tubona ko bitera imibanire mumibanire na Amerika. Ibi byabaye nkibi birashoboka cyane.
- Buruseli na London bemeye gucuruza ubucuruzi. Ni ibiki witeze?
- Amasezerano yamejwe ku ya 24 Ukuboza. Birashoboka cyane, bizashimangirwa vuba. Gusa ikintu gishobora kuvugwa kuri aba ni cyo cyasezeranije muri 2016 ko Ubwami bwa Ubwongereza bushobora kugirana amasezerano bizagenda neza kandi butabuza amategeko ya EU, ntabwo byavugiye ukuri. Hamwe naya masezerano, Ubwongereza yarekuwe kubuzwa eu kubutaka buturutse ku busugire, ariko mu magambo y'ubukungu agomba kwishyura.
Ububiko bwa Kamena 2016 ni kimwe mu bikorwa bitari bike byigeze gukorwa na guverinoma y'Ubwongereza - byateje ko ubwami bwunze ubumwe bwahatiwe kumvira ibisubizo byayo no gusohoka mu Burayi. Ariko mu buryo bwicawe, imyaka ine ishize yerekanye ko Uburayi na EU ntibigeze bigira uruhare runini muri politiki y'Ubwongereza, mu buryo bukora kandi bitegeka.
Kugeza mu 2015, EU ntabwo yari ikibazo nyamukuru kubatoye benshi. Nyuma y'iyi tariki, yaje kwinjira mubyifuzo byingenzi. Ibi birashoboka ko bizakomeza imyaka myinshi y'amakimbirane adahwema ku bijyanye n'ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry'amasezerano 2020.
Ubwongereza bwamye mu Burayi, ariko ntiyigeze aba mu Burayi. Iki kintu kizakomeza kubaho.
- Umunyamerika mushya wa Coronavirus ukwirakwizwa mu Bwongereza. Ni izihe ngaruka ubwayo infection nshya y'Uburayi?
- Igipimo cy'impanuka mu Bwongereza cyakuze cyane. Icyorezo cyabaye politiki nini na politiki n'imibereho. Intangiriro ya 2021 izaba isa kurugamba mubijyanye no gutsinda iki kibazo no kugerageza noneho bagerageza ingaruka zubukungu. Kuba mu Bwongereza rwose ni inkingo, nigice cyonyine cyibyiringiro. Ariko 2020 izibukwa nkumwaka wijimye mumateka ya none yuwongereza, kandi birashoboka ko leta iriho ihita yishyura iki giciro cyayo.
- Ubucuti bw'Uburusiya-Ubwongereza buratera imbere ku kumanuka. Nigute nshobora kugera ku gusobanukirwa?
- Uburusiya n'Ubwongereza bigomba kuvuga byinshi, no kuvuga neza. Mpebiriya yanjye abiri mu Burusiya mu 2010 na 2019. Byerekanwe ko ukurikije isano iri hagati yabantu, ishingiro ni ryiza. Ariko umubano wemewe urakomeye cyane.
Birababaje kubona hariho amakimbirane menshi yica kandi akemurwa guhora duhura nibihugu byombi - ubukungu, ibidukikije nibibazo biturutse kubikorwa byisi yose. Tugomba gukora byinshi kubibazo bisanzwe. N'Uburusiya, kandi guverinoma y'Ubwongereza igomba kuburanishwa gushaka ururimi rumwe. Ntibishoboka kubigeraho wenyine.