2020 Twe rwose twibuka nkumwaka wa Lokdanunov no kurwanya Covid - 19, ariko hari ikindi kintu gikwiye kwitondera ubushyuhe. Umwaka ushize, ubushyuhe bugereranywa no kwandika indangagaciro n'ahantu bibarenga muri Amerika yepfo-Iburengerazuba. Inyandiko zanditse zihamya, ishyano, ntabwo ari igihe kimwe cyo gushyuha, ariko kubyerekeranye no gukura guhora mubuzima bwurugero kwisi. Urwenya rugaragara rwibibera ni uguhindura ikirere - inzira ikomeza yo gushyushya buhoro buhoro kubera ibikorwa byabantu. Kubwamahirwe, uyumunsi ibyuka bya karubon bya dioxyde bikomeje kwiyongera, bivuze ko isi izahura rwose ningaruka nshya nizindi ziteye isoni. Ariko, mbega ukuntu bizaba bishyushye mugihe kizaza, abashakashatsi basanga bigoye. Ibi nibiterwa nuko ejo hazaza kwiyongera k'ubushyuhe ku isi biracyari hafi yatwe. Igihe nuburyo tuzatangira vuba imipaka, bigira uruhare runini mubwihindurize bwinkunga kwisi yose.
IMPANO Z'IBI - Niki ukeneye kumenya?
Nubwo ikirere kuri umubumbe wacu cyamye cyahindutse, impinduka ziriho ubushyuhe zijyanye nibikorwa byabantu. Mu mwaka wa 2019, nk'abanditsi ba raporo bitwa "umuburo w'isi bashinze imirwano mu bihe byagaragaye mu bihe byagaragaye kurusha abahanga benshi bari biteze. Ari hejuru cyane kuruta uko yakirwa kandi akabangamiwe n'ibinyabuzima bisanzwe ndetse n'ubwabantu. "
Intego ya raporo, nkuko byavuzwe n'umwe mu banditsi bayo mu kiganiro n'Ubwongereza Umurinzi, ni ugushiraho ibintu byuzuye byerekana ibitera n'ingaruka zifatika zihindura vuba, kandi ntabwo ari CO2 imyuka ihumanya kandi yongere ubushyuhe hejuru.
Mu bipimo bigira ingaruka ku bushyuhe bwisi, abanditsi bagenera ubwiyongere bw'abaturage, gutema amashyamba, ubwiyongere bw'ingufu, inkunga y'ibitero by'ibitambo n'ibihombo buri mwaka n'ibihombo bya buri mwaka. Naganiriye kuri raporo kuri raporo n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere muri iyi ngingo.
Ndetse ingingo zishimishije zijyanye nuburyo ikirere gihinduka ku isi yacu n'ibikorwa byayo, soma umuyoboro wacu kuri yandex.dzen. Hariho ingingo zisohoka zitari kurubuga!
Ni ibihe biri ejo heza harahanura?
Ku bijyanye n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, gahunda nziza yerekana ibyabaye ku isi ihagarariwe n'itsinda ry'imihindagurikire y'ikirere (IPCC), riyobowe n'umuryango w'abibumbye (UN). Mgek atanga raporo yuzuye kwisi yose hafi yimyaka icumi, kandi iyi ni imwe mu isoko nziza yamakuru yikirere nubutabara.
Raporo iheruka yasohotse muri 2014, iteganijwe muri 2022, itarenze kure. Izi raporo zishingiye ku mirimo y'amagana y'abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi kuva ku isi kandi zirimo amakuru y'ikirere, ndetse n'ubushake bw'ejo hazaza h'ejo hazaza hashingiwe ku moderi igoye. Soma byinshi kubyerekeye raporo yanyuma ya Mgeik yeguriwe inyanja yisi, urashobora gusoma hano.
Reba kandi: Ni ibihe bihugu bikomeye by'abandi barwaye imihindagurikire y'ikirere?
Imwe mu mabuye y'ifatizo ya raporo nuko abashakashatsi bahamagara "uburyo bwo gukwirakwiza kwibanda ku bahagarariye" (RRP, cyangwa RCPS). Ibi ni ibintu byinshi bitandukanye bishingiye ku birere bishingiye ku nzego zitandukanye z'ibyuka, kuva ku mutima, byerekana ko dukora vuba, kugorana, dufata ko ntacyo dukora. Kugeza ubu, abashakashatsi bo muri IPCC bemeza ko ingaruka zo gushyushya dogere 1.5 zizaba mbi.
Na none, kubungabunga ubushyuhe munsi yintego bizasaba isi gukurikiza kimwe mubintu byiza bya RCP byiringiro bya RCP, bita RCP2.6. Ibi ni ukugera ku ntego, ariko gusa niba ibihugu byose byashyize umukono ku masezerano y'ikirere ya Paris azatangira kugabanya imyuka ya Green House Hamwe na enterineti yo hagati, yitwa RCP4.5, imyuka itangira kugabanuka muri 2045. Ibi bizemerera kwiyongera mubushyuhe bugereranije hagati ya 1.5 ° C - 3 ° C.
Niba tunaniwe kugera ku majyambere runaka mu kugabanya ibyuka, hanyuma ku ya 2100 ku isi hashobora gushyuha kuri dogere 3-5. Iyi nimero ivugwa mumakuru nkigisubizo gishimishije, nubwo bamwe mubasirikare baburiye ko ahubwo ni imipaka yo hejuru yibishoboka kandi bidashoboka ko bibaho.
Bizakugirira akamaro: Ni iki kizabaho muri 2050, niba udahagaritse imihindagurikire y'ikirere?
Ingaruka zo kwishyuha ku isi
Muri rusange, abashakashatsi bemeza ko ku ya 2100 ubushyuhe ku isi buzamuka kuva kuri dogere 2.9 kugeza kuri 3.4, ariko birashoboka ko mu gihe kizaza, ikiremwa cy'ejo hazaza, ikiremwamuntu kizaba muri iki gihe cyo guteka hagati yuru rurimi kandi gifatwa nkibyinshi Birashoboka. Ariko aho tubisanga hose mumyaka 79, ingaruka rwose zizakomera, uko teromometero isobanura.
Umubumbe wacu wamaze kuba impamyabumenyi irenze urugero 1.5 kuva mubihe byabanjirije inganda, nikihe cyiciro rusange mugihe cyo gususura ubushyuhe bwisi. Iri hinduka rya dogere 1.5 rimaze gutemera ko urwego rwinyanja rwazamutse nka santimetero 7.5, kandi inkinzo nini zashizwemo ibice 1.3 gutakaza toni za tiriyation 1.3. Ibi byarenze ku bihe by'ikirere, byatumye habaho umuyaga mwinshi, amapfa, ubushyuhe n'ibindi biza. Indi mpanuka irashobora kugira ingaruka mbi.
Abahanga mu bya siyansi bamaze guhatanira ko imiraba y'ubushyuhe izaza iterabwoba miriyoni z'ubuzima ku isi buri mwaka. Dukurikije iteganyagihe, impunzi z'ikirere zizagenda ziva kuri ekwateri, zizahangayikishwa n'ibibazo by'imidugudu mu bihugu bikonje, aho bimuka. Imijyi yo ku nkombe, harimo na York, Miami, Jagos, Jagos n'abandi, igomba guhindura, kandi umuryango w'abaturage urashobora guhindura iteka, kandi umuryango w'abaturage urashobora guhindura iteka demografiya no mu bindi bihugu.
Birashimishije: Imihindagurikire y'ikirere irashobora "gukanda" imijyi bitarenze 2100
Ni ngombwa kumenya ko ubushyuhe bwisi yose ari ibisobanuro gusa. Ahantu hamwe dushyuha birashobora gukabya cyane. Birumvikana ko iyi atari ubwambere isi ishyuha. Mu mateka yose yumubumbe wacu, hari ingingo nyinshi aho ubushyuhe (nurwego rwa dioxyde de carbone) rwaruta ubu. Niki gitandukanya nigihe cyubu, bityo rero umuvuduko hamwe nimpinduka zibaho. Ubushyuhe buhatanira cyane imyaka amagana, ntabwo ibihumbi icumi cyangwa amagana.