Ingaruka z'imihindagurikire y'ikirere zizaba zitaringaniye muri iyi si. Hariho ingaruka zizaba mbi cyane kandi zangiza cyane, ariko utundi turere dushobora kungukirwa no gushyuha, abahanga ba kaminuza ya Princeton ya Jose Luis Cruz na Esteraban Rossi-Hansberg banditswe kubyerekeye ibisubizo byubushakashatsi bwabo bushya.
Ahantu ubushyuhe bwisi buzatanga ubwiyongere bwimikorere na 15%
Abahanga bafite icyitegererezo gishinzwe gusuzuma ibikorwa rusange babarirwa ku ngaruka z'ubukungu ko ibihugu bizana ubushyuhe mu bihugu bitandukanye. Byongeye kandi, ku bice bitandukanye by'umubumbe, ntabwo byujuje ingaruka z'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, ahubwo nongeye ibisubizo kuri bo ni kwimuka, guhindura iminyururu y'ubucuruzi, kuzamura ikoranayiri ry'ibicuruzwa, kuzamura ikoranabuhanga ryaho, imikoranire hagati y'ubukungu. Mbere, izi ngingo, kimwe n'ibyamamare birambuye by'ingaruka z'ikirere kubera uturere dutandukanye, abahanga batitaye cyane, bashimangira abanditsi.Kongera ubushyuhe bwumubumbe wa sensile 1 ahantu hashyushye bizaganisha ku kwangirika mubihe 5%, nibikorwa - bitarenze 15%. Kubera iyo mpamvu, imibereho myiza mu bihugu byo muri Afurika no mu kilatini irashobora kugwa 10-15%. Ibinyuranye, ahantu hakonje - Siberiya, Kanada, Alaska, nibindi. - Imibereho myiza irashobora gukura hafi 15%, abahanga mu basizi ba Priceceton. Muri icyo gihe, ibihugu bikennye bikennye bizaba bibabazwa cyane, naho abakire bazagira ingaruka ku bushake.
Ubushakashatsi buzamura ikibazo cyingenzi cyubusa bwo gukwirakwiza ingaruka z'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, ibitekerezo bigize ingaruka z'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, ibitekerezo bigize ingaruka ziterwa n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere no guteza imbere KPMG na Cis Vladimir. Iperereza ryibi ni itandukaniro rikomeye mubiciro byo guhuza imihindagurikire y'ikirere mu turere dutandukanye two mu turere dutandukanye, ndetse n'ingaruka z'ibihe ", kugaburira ibikoresho byinganda ku isi no gutemba. Biragaragara, bigomba kwitabwaho mugihe ukura ingamba zishinzwe kugenzura imihindagurikire y'ikirere. Mbere ya byose, ireba ibikoresho byamafaranga nka Regiteri Umusoro wa karubone cyangwa ibihugu bivuguruzanya bikaba bidakwiye kwishyura byinshi niba aya mafranga akoreshwa mu gutera inkunga ingamba zo kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere), Lukin atandukanye mu gutera inkunga imihindagurikire y'ikirere), Lukin atongana ku ngamba zo kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikigo), Flukin amenyesheje amafaranga yo kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikigo), Lukin atandukanye mu gutera imihindagurikire y'ikirere), Lukin atandukanye mu gutera inkunga.
Ariko ntabwo aribyo
Ariko, abanditsi bo ubwabo bazi ko icyitegererezo cyahanuye rwose ingaruka zikomeye (nibintu byabo bibi cyangwa byiza) mu turere dufite ikirere gikabije, ariko igipimo cyacyo ntigisanzwe. Kubera iyo mpamvu, ntibishoboka amaherezo kugereranya ingaruka z'imihindagurikire y'ikirere ku isi yose.
Ubushakashatsi bushya ntibushobora kuzirikana ibintu byose, kuko icyitegererezo icyo aricyo cyose cyoroshe. Umuyobozi w'ingaruka zoroheje gusa yigana, kandi arushijeho kwihangana kandi ntakibike - oya bityo ntugwe muri ibyo byiciro bya serivisi, Ey Sergey Daiman agira ati: "Oya bityo ntugwe mu buryo bw'iterambere rya serivisi.
Birumvikana ko ibyangiritse ku mihindagurikire y'ikirere bizahungabana kimwe kandi hano ibintu byo ku mubiri bikinishwa - uturere twahumanye tuzababazwa n'umwuzure, gukura kw'inyanja, ubushyuhe bwo mu nyanja, imvura ndende cyangwa imvura ndende ibirenze abandi birakomeje. Ariko ntabwo ari bibi gutekereza ko muyindi turere, inzira nziza yo murwego rwiza yangiza imihindagurikire y'ikirere.
Uburusiya busezeranya ubuhinzi bushya bw'ubuhinzi
Kuba ibihugu byinshi bishobora kubona inyungu ziva mubushyuhe bwisi yose ntabwo byandikiwe bwa mbere. New York Times yanditseho ati: "Nta gihugu kirimo kuba cyiza kuruta Uburusiya, kugira ngo ashobore kungukirwa no gushyuha ku isi." Asobanura kandi ubushakashatsi. Uburusiya buzagira ikirere cyiza kizemerera no gukurura abimukira (mbere ya bose mu bihugu byo muri Aziya yepfo, kizirukana inyanja iri imbere mu nzu), no kwagura ubushyuhe bukabije mu nzu), no kwagura ubushyuhe bukabije mu nzu), no kwagura akarere k'ubutaka bw'ubuhinzi (igihe muri Amerika , Uburayi n'Ubuhinde bazagabanuka), byavuzwe mu ngingo.Kugira ngo ngaruka nziza z'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, Guverinoma y'Uburusiya muri gahunda y'igihugu yo guhangana n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere yafashe:
- Kugabanya ibiciro byingufu mu gihe cyo gushyushya;
- Kunoza ibisabwa byo gutwara mu nyanja ya Arctique mu nyanja ya Arctique;
- Kwagura akarere k'ibihingwa, kwiyongera kwubahiriza ubworozi;
- Kongera umusaruro wa boreal (ni ukuvuga, Amashyamba adashoboka).
Ku Burusiya, hari ibihe byinshi byatsinze, bireba umufatanyabikorwa winzobere ya BCG Kontantin Polunin. Ubwa mbere, ni ugutera inyanja yo mu majyaruguru umwaka wose. Icya kabiri, kubona amabuye y'agaciro, kugirango ukureho bitashoboka mbere. Icya gatatu, kwiyongera kw'ubutaka bwahinzwe no gukura kw'ibiryo byoherezwa mu biribwa. Na Kane, kuva mu Burusiya hafi 20% by'ibisige byose by'amashyamba kandi birashobora gufatwa nk'ishyamba, ariko kubisuzuma n'ubushobozi bwo guhambira amashyamba ya karubone, ariko kwiyongera ku bushobozi bwo guhambira amashyamba ya karubone, kwiyongera kw'ibicuruzwa bihwanye no kuzana Uburusiya amafaranga menshi.
Birumvikana ko ushobora kubona ingaruka nziza, Daiman avuga. Kurugero, imbaraga zo gushyushya Uburusiya zirashobora gukenera make, no kumuyaga - byinshi, ariko ntabwo ari byinshi. Ariko hariho igihombo kinini cyane, kurugero, kubikorwa remezo byingufu biterwa no gukura kwa inshuro zitunguranye, inzibacyuho binyuze muri zeru, ubushyuhe bwinshi. Ndetse n'imikorere ya tpple hamwe no kwiyongera k'ubushyuhe, yanditse.
Ariko hamwe nibiza bisanzwe kandi nta hydrocarbon yohereza ibicuruzwa hanze
Mu Burusiya, ibintu birashimishije cyane, birashimishije cyane ko ibintu bigenda neza - igihembwe gikura, nibindi. Kandi hariho uturere tubigirana n'iterabwoba rifitanye isano n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere bivuka: Kurugero, gushonga kwa permafrost.
Noneho isi iherereye ku murongo, utaganisha kuri dogere 1.5, hamwe na dogere 4-5 zisuye kurangiza XXI, yibutsa Polunin. Mugihe icyitegererezo cyose cyerekana ko ubushyuhe bwisi buzaba bwiza (mu karere k'urusyo rw'iteka, birwana na dogere 5-9) no kugaragazwa kandi mu kwiyongera ikirere gikabije (umwuzure, ibihuhusi, amapfa) . Irimbuka ngarukamwaka muri ibyo bintu nk'ibi rimaze kugereranywa na miliyari 600 z'amadolari, kandi kugeza igihe crillion 1 imaze kugerwaho. Dukurikije ibigereranyo by'amasosiyete y'ubwishingizi, muri 2050, hamwe no kwiyongera mu nzego ya 0.5, ingaruka mbi cyane ku mijyi 570 z'isi muri zone yo ku nkombe zishobora kuba mu karere ka Cheary St. Petersburg na Vladivostok. Ku Isi yose, ubushyuhe bushobora gutuma umuntu yimukira abantu bagera kuri miliyoni 200. Ibi byose birashobora kugabanya imikurire ya GDP ku isi kugeza 30%, abona kimwe cya kabiri-kimwe.
Ibyago bisanzwe ntibinyuze mu Burusiya. Muri 2019, uhereye ku misoro ya buri wese mu Burusiya 10,000. Yagiye gukuraho ingaruka z'ibintu bisanzwe bishobora guteza akaga, byabazwe Ikigo cya Clowromet Clow Rosight Roshydromet. Ibyangiritse byumwaka mumihindagurikire y'ikirere mu Burusiya bipimwa na miriyari icumi z'amafaranga, Lukin asa. Kubwibyo, hatanzwe ko ubushyuhe mu Burusiya buboneka inshuro 2.5 byihuse kuruta impuzandengo y'isi (Roshydromet Ibi), hagomba kwitabwaho bidasanzwe isuzuma ry'ikirere rikoresheje uburyo bwateye imbere no kwemera.
Gushonga kwa permafrost bizatera ibyangiritse ku nganda no mu bikorwa remezo by'Uburusiya (nk'uko bimwe byagenwe by'Uburusiya (nk'uko bamwe babitangaza, igihombo kizingana na miliyari 100 z'amadolari kuri 2050), Inyandiko. Iyo bimukiye mubukungu bwa karubone, ibyifuzo byamavuta bya peteroli nibicuruzwa bya peteroli birashobora kugabanuka cyane, ukurikije bimwe bigereranyo - kugeza kuri 80%. Avuga ko ariko bivugwa ko yiyongera cyane mu biciro by'ibiribwa.
Mu buhinzi, uturere dushya tuzagaragara dufite ubushyuhe bugereranywa - ariko aho ubuhinzi budashobora gukorwa, ubutaka budakorwa, nta bikorwa remezo, biburira Daiman. Kandi aho haho ubuhinzi busanzwe bwari ishingiro ry'ubukungu, hazabaho igihombo cy'ibihingwa: ubutayu, amapfa, kwiyuhagira igihe kirekire n'umwuzure.
Umuyobozi w'ikigega cy'ibirere cy'ibirere n'ingufu z'ibirere n'ingufu z'ibirere n'ingufu z'ibirere n'ingufu z'ibirere n'ingufu, Umuyobozi w'ikigega cy'ibinyabuzima cy'ibinyampeke cy'ikirere cy'ibirere n'ibigega by'indege cy'indege yagiranye indege n'ikigega cy'indege cy'indege kiziga) Alexey kokorin ari igice. Ntabwo hazabaho ingaruka zitaziguye hano kuruta mubindi bihugu, ahubwo hazabaho kugwa kumavuta, amakara na gaze - birasobanura.