Ibipimo bya Fitch byahawe umujyi wa Yerovan amanota maremare ya Powerualt assioult ("RDE") mu mafaranga y'abanyamahanga ndetse n'igihugu kuri b + ku rwego hamwe n '"iharanira".
Ibipimo byerekana ko ushidikanya mu mujyi wigenga "bb-", biterwa no guhuza ibyabaye nk '"intege nke" no gusuzuma irwanya umutwaro uremereye "AAA". RDE igarukira ku manota yigenga ya Arumeniya ("B +" / Iteganyagihe "ridashira").
Ati: "Yerevan ni umurwa mukuru wa Arumeniya, umujyi munini ndetse n'ikigo cy'ubukungu cy'igihugu. Kuva 2020, abaturage ba Yerovani bari abantu miliyoni 1.1. Mu bukungu bw'umujyi, inkiko zishinzwe serivisi ziratsinda, kandi ibipimo by'imibereho biri hasi ugereranije n'abavuza mpuzamahanga bagereranywa. Raporo ivuga ko ingengo y'imari y'umujyi ishingiye kuri desktop yamafaranga kandi ikagera ku mwaka umwe. "
Ibintu Byingenzi
Ingaruka-Umwirondoro: Isuzuma "Abatishoboye"
Ibi birerekana kugereranya ibintu bitanu byingenzi byatewe "urwego rudakomeye" (umutekano winjiza, guhuza amakuru, guhuza ibikorwa byingenzi "(guhanagura ubuziraherezo).
Ibyago-byumwirondoro-umwirondoro nabyo bizirikana ibyago byinshi byo gucika intege mu buryo butunguranye ubushobozi bwumujyi uhanganye mugihe cya Horizon (2021-2025) cyangwa urebye amafaranga yakusanyijwe ari ibiteganijwe, cyangwa bikwiye Gukoresha ibiteganijwe, cyangwa bitewe no kongera imbaraga zitunguranye mu nshingano cyangwa gusaba serivisi y'imyenda.
Guharanira inyungu: gusuzuma "urwego rudafite intege nke"
Amafaranga yinjiza muri Yerevan yakozwe ahanini yishyuye ingengo yimari ya leta yo hagati, yagereranije 70% muri 2016-2020. Igice gito cya transfers gihagarariwe ninkunga zigamije kuzamura umutekano wingengo yumujyi, mugihe ubwinshi bwintangarugero bibasirwa kandi bigamije gukora amafaranga yihariye cyangwa imbaraga. Amafaranga yinjira mu bigereranyo yari afite imyaka 16% yinjiza mu 2016-2020, kandi igishingiro cy'umusoro kigizwe n'ubwoko butandukanye bw'imisoro y'umutungo.
Nubwo iyi misoro ihamye mubukungu, ifite amahirwe make yo gukura, cyane cyane murwego rwurwego rwo hasi rwinjiza kuri buri muturage, ukinisha inyuma abatanga mpuzamahanga bagereranywa. Ikigo gihuye n'ikigo gihuye n'ikibazo gihagije cy'imigezi ya Yerevan, kubera ko isoko y'igice nyamukuru cy'injiza ari umuvuduko w'ikirenga hamwe na "B". Ibyiringiro byo gukura byinjiza bigarukira ku bihe by'ubukungu n'imyitwarire mibi bifitanye isano na coronasic icyorezo cya coronasi. Dukurikije fitch, GDP ya Arumeniya yagabanutseho 6.2% muri 2020, hanyuma igarukira na 3.2% muri 2021.
Guhuza n'imihindagurikire y'imari: isuzuma "urwego rudafite intege nke"
Guhinduka ingengo y'imari y'umujyi bigarukira ku mikorere y'inzego, hakurikijwe ibihugu by'ingengo y'imari byibanda ku rwego rwa guverinoma nkuru. Aba nyuma bafite uburenganzira bwo gushyiraho igipimo cyimisoro cyangwa kumenyekanisha imisoro mishya. Usibye kwinjiza mumisoro yumutungo, kandi yakusanyije kandi imisoro n'amahoro, bimwe muribyo bishobora guhindurwa numujyi. Umugabane w'amafaranga n'inshingano wari 12% by'ibyinjira mu 2020, kandi bimwe muribi bimaze gushyirwaho kurwego ntarengwa. Ibi bivuze ko ibishobora kwiyongera kwinjiza kari munsi ya 50% byagabanijwe neza mubyiciro byinjira, byerekana ko umujyi uhinduka wumujyi mugihe habaye iterambere ribi ryibyabaye mu bukungu.
Byerekana Amafaranga: Isuzuma "Urwego rwo hagati"
Yerevan itwara igenzura ry'ibiciro byahagaritswe, kubera ikiguzi cy'amafaranga yakoreshejwe hafi n'imbaraga zinjiza. Inshingano z'umujyi zirahamye mu gihe cy'ubukungu. Ingingo nini yakoreshejwe ni ushinzwe 42% y'ibiciro byose byakoreshejwe muri 2019. Harakomeza gukurikiza urwego rw'itabi, cyagize 22% by'amafaranga yakoreshejwe. Amafaranga menshi akoreshwa aterwa inkunga no kwimura mu ngengo y'imari ya guverinoma nkuru, itanga politiki y'umujyi ishingiye ku byemezo byayo.
Guhuza amakuru yakoreshejwe: Gusuzuma "Urwego rudafite intege nke"
Fitch isuzuma guhuza n'imihindagurikire y'ibijyanye na leta ya Yerevan. Igice kinini cyibishobora kuba umujyi ni itegeko, kandi bidahuye ningingo zikoreshwa ryiganje mubikorwa byabigenewe. Nkigisubizo, igice nyamukuru cyibiciro kirashobora kugorana kugabanya mugihe habaye kugabanuka kwinjiza. Umugabane w'amafaranga yakoreshejwe, ugereranije kuri 9% by'amafaranga yose yakoreshejwe muri 2016-2020, adatanga urujya n'uruza rw'inyongera. Ibikorwa remezo bikenewe ntibizemera ko umujyi uhagarika amafaranga akoreshwa.
Guhagarara ku nshingano z'imyenda no kuzungura: Isuzuma "Urwego rukomeye"
Iterambere ry'isoko ry'imari muri Arumeniya riri ku cyiciro cyambere, kandi umujyi nta migenzo yo gucunga imyenda nyayo, kuva mu ntangiriro za 2021 yakomeje uko ibintu bihebuje. Amategeko y'igihugu ashyiraho imipaka ikaze kuri politiki y'imyenda kandi ntiyemerera gukurura umwenda mushya kugeza umwenda uriho uzaba ukishyurwa byuzuye. Muri icyo gihe, yemerewe gukurura imyenda mu ifaranga ry'amahanga. Ubushobozi bwumujyi ucunga umwenda bushobora kuba mugihe gito cyagenzuwe mubikorwa niba bizakoresha inkunga ikurura umuryango mpuzamahanga wimari. Ingaruka ziteganijwe zigarukira ku nshingano ziciriritse z'amasosiyete y'umurenge wa komini, kubera ko umujyi udatanga ingwate.
Guhinduka Inshingano z'umubiri no kuzura: Isuzuma "Urwego rudafite intege nke"
Inkomoko nini ya status mumujyi ni ikigega cya bateri. Ubunini bwose bwamazi ntabwo bugarukira gusa kugirango bukoreshe, kandi umujyi ushobora kubanza kubikoresha amafaranga ashinzwe amafaranga yashinzwe, kandi ibindi birashobora kwerekezwa ku gutera amafaranga amafaranga yakoreshejwe. Yerevan ikomeza amafaranga kuri konti yububiko, kubera ko gushyira amafaranga abitsa mu mabanki yubucuruzi abujijwe n'amategeko yigihugu. Kubintu byinyongera, umujyi urashobora kuba urimo inguzanyo mu isanduku nkuru. Kuva gusa imiterere yimiterere irahari kandi hashobora kubaho ingaruka zishobora kuba zigarukira ku rwego rwa "B +", gusuzuma iki kintu ni "urwego rukomeye".
Kurwanya imyenda: Icyiciro cya AAA
Mu gice cyacyo, fitch kuva mu kuba umujyi udafite umwenda utangiye gukurura inguzanyo zimaze muri 2021. Muri icyo gihe, urwego rumwe ruzakomeza kuba rufashe, kandi ibi ntibizaganisha ku madeni Ibipimo bituze muri 2021-2025 Fitch yiteze umutekano wimikorere yibikorwa byumujyi - Ikimenyetso nyamukuru cyo gusuzuma imyenda itunganya yubwoko B - bizakomeza gukomera, munsi ya 5x, bihuye no gusuzuma ya AAA. Ibipimo bikomeye byisumbuye nabyo bishimangira iyi ngingo.
Igipimo cyukuri cya serivisi (kuringaniza kuri serivisi yimyenda, harimo no kwishyura umwenda mugihe gito) bizaguma hejuru ya 4x imyaka yose nkigice cyimibare. Ikimenyetso cyumutwaro wimyenda yimari, kizakura buhoro buhoro kuri 2021-2025. Ku bijyanye n'urwego rwa zeru, bizakomeza gushyira mu gaciro, munsi ya 50% mugihe cyashyizwe ahagaragara. Isuzuma ryibipimo byose uko ari bitatu "urwego rukomeye" rutera isuzuma rya nyuma ryo kurwanya umutwaro uremereye umwenda "AAA".
Gutsindishirizwa muri make
Nk'uko byimazeyo ibyiciro, Yerevan bivuga uburyo bw'ubutegetsi bw'ubwoko bukenewe kugira ngo akore serivisi y'imyenda ku kiguzi cy'amafaranga atemba buri mwaka. Fitch isuzuma ko inguzanyo za Yerovani ku rwego rwigenga nk'inzego zikwiye "bb", zigaragaza guhuza ibyabaye ". Kubahiriza umujyi ku buryo bwigenga "bb" kandi byerekana umwanya wacyo ugereranije n'abatanga bagereranywa. Ibyago byihishe cyangwa ibintu byihutirwa byo gutabara leta ntabwo bigira ingaruka kuri RDE, ariko biracyakumijwe na RE Yigenga ya Arumeniya kurwego rwa "B +".