Impinga ya Masitine yanyuze mu 2019, yavuzwe ku muyobozi mukuru w'ingufu z'amafaranga (Mea) Umuvugizi w'imari mpuzamahanga (Mea), FATIH CULL mu kiganiro n'abanyamakuru cyeguriwe iteganyagihe rishya ku isoko rya peteroli kuri 2021-2026. Yakoze reservation ko isesengura ikigo yari yarakoze mbere, ariko ubu bwa mbere barashobora kubitangaza byimazeyo. "Birumvikana ko hashobora gutungurwa, ariko ntitugitegereje kugaruka kwa lisansi y'urwego rwa 2019," rwashongotse.
Nk'uko Maa abitangaza ngo 2020, kubera Lokdaunov mu gihe icyorezo, ko lisansi ya GANDemontive yaguye mu mashini miliyoni 2.9 ku munsi. Muri 2021, tubikesheje gusana ibikorwa byabashoferi, Mea yiteze ko imikurire yikigereranyo cyikigereranyo cya buri munsi na barrele miliyoni 1.7, kandi muri 2022 - kuri barreles 470.000. Muri 2026, gukoresha lisansi bizaba ingumba miliyoni 25.9 - iyi ni barrele 690.000 kumunsi umwe muri 2019.
Nk'uko byarol, igitonyanga gikomeye cyane mu bihugu byateye imbere, mu gihe gishimishije bizakomeza kwiyongera, nubwo mu muvuduko muto.
Mu Burusiya, umusaruro wa lisansi muri 2020 waguye ahagana kuri 5% kugeza kuri miliyoni 38.4, ikurikira amakuru ya minisiteri y'ingufu. Ariko abakozi ba peteroli bohereza amateka hanze yubunini buto bwa lisansi, ahanini batanga lisansi kumasoko yo murugo. Nibyo, muri 2020, ukurikije FCS, ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byiyongereyeho 12.4% hafi toni miliyoni 6.
Mu bihe biri imbere, hateganijwe kongera kohereza mu Burusiya, ariko ndetse no mu rwego rwo hejuru, bizakomeza kuba bito - toni miliyoni 10 ugereranije na toni miliyoni 50 zo kohereza kuri lisansi 50 yo kohereza lisansi. Sergey Ezhov. Abasohokaga mu Buto mu Burusiya bazashobora kugereza Autobanye ku masoko ya Aziya na Afurika, aho imikurire yo kunywa iracyahanurwa. Nkikibazo cyikibazo, ibigo byinshi nabyo ubona ko ibintu byoroshye cyane: Birashobora guhindura imbaraga kumusaruro wa Autobanzin kugirango utange ibikoresho fatizo bya peteroki, bibwira uruzitiro.
Bateri aho kuba lisansiImpamvu y'ibibazo by'ibibazo biri ku isoko ry'isi yose rya lisansi ni ukugenda mu modoka z'amashanyarazi, bisobanura RAA. Nk'uko Bloomberg imari imari imari imari, ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi biyongera mu myaka itanu iri imbere muri miliyoni 8.5 iri imbere muri 2025, muri Mea yiteze ko mu birometero 2026 bizaba bimaze kuba miliyoni 12, kandi umubare w'imodoka z'amashanyarazi wegera miliyoni 60. Ibi bizaganisha ku kugabanuka ku isi ibisabwa na peteroli, hafi kimwe cya kabiri cyacyo gitunganijwe muri lisansi yo gutwara abantu, na miliyoni 1 za Bargels ku mashanyarazi na bisi nyinshi z'amashanyarazi muri 2026, mu Gukenera Barrels 700,000 Linda izashira na 300 000 - mazutu.
Perezida n'umuyobozi mukuru w'ingengabihe ya Amerika, Perezida n'umuyobozi w'iperereza yagize ati: "Mu myaka ine yakurikiyeho, tuzabona impinduka nk'izo mu mashanyarazi yo gutwara amashanyarazi, bitabonetse mu myaka 20 ishize,".
Ibihugu byinshi byashyizeho igihe ntarengwa cyo guhagarika kugurisha ibinyabiziga bifite moteri yo gutwika imbere (DVS). Reo, muri Noruveje, azinjira 2025 (muri Nzeri umwaka ushize, 61.5% by'imodoka nshya zari amashanyarazi), mu Bwongereza - mu Bwongereza - muri 2040 muri Californiya, ari cyo Isoko ryimodoka nini (kugurisha buri mwaka - Imodoka zigera kuri miliyoni 2, hafi 10% byamavuta mugihugu), iryo zuba rizatangira gukurikizwa muri 2035. Muri Californiya ritera vuba: niba sitasiyo ya gaze Muri Leta ni munsi ya 10,500 (muri ibyo, 8270 ni lisansi), hanyuma ukishyuza sitasiyo z'imodoka z'amashanyarazi - hafi 32.000 za New York - bagera ku 6.000.
Abarenga kimwe cya kabiri cy'ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi muri 2026 biziruka mu mihanda y'Ubushinwa, nko mu gihembwe - mu Burayi, ibisigaye - mu Buyapani, Amerika n'ibindi bihugu, bahanura Mea.
Ibisabwa na guverinoma n'abaguzi bashishikarizwa na autocompany. Motors Moto yasezeranijwe na 2035 kugirango areke kureka imodoka zitwara abagenzi hamwe na DVS, Volvo shyira intego nkiyi yamaze imyaka 203 (hafi inshuro eshanu, kuruta muri 2019). Volkswagen Gahunda ya 2030, munsi ya VW mu Burayi, hazabaho kugurisha 70% mu Burayi, no muri Amerika n'Ubushinwa - birenze 50. Kubwibyo, VW irashaka kubaka cyangwa gukingura bateri esheshatu mu Burayi nigihe kigera kuri 18,000 kugeza 2025. Umubare wa sitasiyo ikomeye mu Burayi (Bazaba kuri sitasiyo ya BP).
Amavuta menshi, gutunganya gakeKubera kugabanuka kwa lisansi mu myaka iri imbere, umwanda wa gatatu wo gufunga amavuta yo gutunganya amavuta arangwa, yorohereza Iea. Ni ngombwa gukuraho imbaraga zitanga miliyoni 6 zamavuta 6, gusa muriki gihe gupakira ibihingwa bizagenda bigera kuri 80% kandi akazi kabo kazahinduka ingirakamaro, akazi kabo karabaze kumasoko ya peteroli Maa torlil Bosni. Amasosiyete yamaze gutangaza gahunda yo gufunga ubushobozi bwo gukora ibisambano miliyoni 3.6 kumunsi.
Umuhengeri wa mbere wo kugirira neza amavuta wabaye mu myaka ya za 1980, ubwo ubushobozi bwafunzwe na barresi miliyoni 12 za lisansi ku munsi, kandi mu ntangiriro za 2010. Indi ntebe miliyoni 7 zasize isoko.
Ariko, niba ibihugu bitazakomanga Politiki yo kwimurwa kugeza ku bukungu buke bwa karubone, ntabwo biteze ko impinga yo gukenera amavuta yo mu bupfura mu myaka iri imbere. Ati: "Nzi ko abayobozi benshi b'inganda baherutse kuvuga ko impinga yo kunywa yarenganijwe, ariko ntidutekereza." Ibinyuranye n'ibyo, hateganijwe ibiteganijwe mu kigo, kugeza ku mpera za 2026, impuzandengo ya buri munsi y'amavuta izakura buri mwaka kandi ari hafi ya 2020 G. izakura kuri miliyoni 10.3 kuri miliyoni 104.2 ) ibyifuzo bizagaruka muri 2023
Muri icyo gihe, abatanga amavuta nyamukuru ku isoko ryisi bazasimburwa, Iea yiteze. Niba muri 2017-2019 Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika zihaze ubwitonzi bwose bukenewe, ubu bwari ibisekuruza bigera kuri miliyoni 4 ku munsi, none ibicuruzwa nyamukuru bizaba ibihugu byo mu Burasirazuba bwo hagati, muri Iraki Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, harimo na Arabiya Sawudites, muri Arabiya Sawudite, babwira guhirwa. Gukuramo muri Amerika muri 2026 bizakura gusa na miliyoni 1.6 gusa, no mu bihugu bitatu byashyizwe ku irinjiriro, miliyoni 4.1 mu Burusiya - bagera kuri miliyoni 0.7, ITa ya Iea.
Ariko, niba leta nubucuruzi bizashyiraho imbaraga kugirango ugabanye ubwiyongere bwisi, ntabwo na 2 °, ndetse na 1.5 ° (urwego rwashyizwe mumasezerano yikirere), ibyifuzo bishobora kugwa byinshi, abahanga cy'ikigo mpuzamahanga gisuzuma ku masoko ashobora kongerwa (Irena). Kugeza kuri miliyoni 85 kugeza kuri miliyoni 11 kumunsi muri 2050, yavuze ku wa kabiri umuryango uhuza ibihugu 163.
Tekinoroji yo kwimura cyane mubukungu bwisumbuye bumaze kwibasirwa cyane cyane, ahubwo ni ngombwa kongera ishoramari ryiza - kugeza kuri miriyoni 4.4 kumwaka, nk'uko Irena. Ubu buri gihe ni inshuro ebyiri kuruta muri 2019. "Kugera ku mpinduka zikomeye, ugomba kwihutisha cyane imbaraga."