Kuva kuri 2021, twese tuzongera gukora isoko, batinya ibihano, nkuko byari bimeze muri 2018 na 2016. Igihe kirageze cyo guhindura iyi jambo ridasobanutse neza.
Gushushanya ibihano
Uhagera ku bihano by'agateganyo, ukurikije demokarasi, bigomba gufata kamere ya sisitemu, ni ukuvuga imiterere y'imizitiro itinda. Mu buryo butandukanye na Trump, kandi, ntabwo ndi hejuru kuri iryo hazu, sinshobora kubikora, nakwita ibihano na Bayden "buren", i., Bikozwe na gahunda iteganijwe mbere, ariko muri ibyo nta mbibi.
Naje kuri ubu, nagereranije ibikorwa bya demokarasi hamwe nibyo numvise iburanisha rya Sena kandi byerekanwe muri 2018-2019.
Muri rusange, nyuma yo gusoma ibice byanjye ku buryo bwanjye, urashobora kwemeza ko abasenateri bashyigikiye igitekerezo cy'uburusiya kuva mu burengerazuba n'ikoranabuhanga ndetse n'intore, byerekana ibihano n'ibihano.
Ubu ni ugukora amababi, amatwi ngo akemure imbaraga, ibi nibyo bibaho hamwe numugezi wamajyaruguru - 2, kandi ibi nibibaho mugihe Amerika n'Uburayi bizashyira mu bikorwa ibihano by'Uburusiya kubera ko Chimpery yakoreshejwe mu mababi (hano, bitandukanye na SP-2, Uburayi bufata Uburusiya icyaha). Ibi nibyo ntegereje, mugihe ingamba zirushaho kugabanya ishoramari mumishinga ya peteroli na gaze muri federasiyo y'Uburusiya na Dolg.
Na none, uhereye kuri lisiti ya "ifasha" ruswa, kimwe na filime ye "ibwami" - Ibi, mubyukuri, inzira yo kwemeza ibikoresho byiburengerazuba / Ibiganiro bya raporo yubutumwa bwa Amerika ku butunzi bwa Putin, byasabwe na Sena y'Amerika.
Kuva hano ndaje ku mwanzuro ko ibikorwa by'Amerika mu bihano - nk'ibi:
- Injiza ibihano kuri oligarchs zinjira mu ntore zizengurutse perezida w'Uburusiya / kubyemeza binyuze mu mafarashi.
- Gabanya ishoramari nikoranabuhanga mumavuta / bityo gabanya umutungo wuburusiya kugirango ukore kuri politiki yububanyi n'amahanga.
Kugereranya ibinyejana byose byirukanye ubutaka n'umutungo, amasoko yo kugurisha. Kandi rero, nizera ko ibihano ari igikoresho muri uru rugamba, kandi intego yabo nyamukuru ni ugushyira mu bikorwa umutungo w'Uburusiya, bitabaye uko bisa naho ari byiza. Kandi hamwe nubushinwa hari guhangana.
- Kugira ngo Uburayi bushyigikire Amerika mu bihano by ibyondo by'impfubyi, kuzunguruka cyane, kuko Iri tegeko rishyirwa ku rwego mpuzamahanga.
Imiterere no kwerekana igihe
Gukomeza, imiyoborere y'ikipikari igomba:- Kwemeza uburyo bwa sisitemu, intego n'amafaranga.
- Emera binyuze mu mafarashi, ni we nyirabayazana.
- Gushiraho umubano n'Uburayi, byatangajwe na Trump, imiduka ya Medvedev yanditse neza (ingingo ivuga ku bya politiki byacitsemojwe muri Amerika, bituma ihungabana hanze y'Amerika).
- Injira aho bigarukira = ibihano kuri oligarchs, abitabiriye imishinga y'ingufu muri Federasiyo y'Uburusiya, imiryango yo muri Crimy yatangajwe muri Federasiyo y'Uburusiya (gutanga amahirwe yo kugurisha ibya kera), kubuza amafaranga mu mwenda kugeza ubucuruzi.
Birumvikana ko imyiteguro yonyine izafata amezi abiri, kandi ntabwo byose bizarasa icyarimwe. Ingaruka zateguwe kumyaka, ariko imigabane kugiti cye irashobora kubabara.
Uruhare rushimishije muri ibi mubushinwa - ngira ngo iki gihugu kidazabafasha kandi kizakomeza kuba isoko yishoramari muri federasiyo y'Uburusiya, nubwo bizaba ubufatanye buringaniye. Ubushinwa bumaze gushyigikira Irani.
Umutungo ukurikiza akaga nuburyo bikomeye
Ukurikije igishushanyo, mbona ko bishoboka, mbona ibikoresho bikurikira hamwe nabazize ibibazo:
- Gazprom Neft (McX: Sibn) na Rosneft (McX: Rosn), Novater), Gazx: Isuku (Impuguke) Njye mbona, bibangamira aba bigo gutakaza 5-20% yo mu nyuguti nkuru.
- Mail.ru Itsinda (McX: Mailr)) ni Uburozi (MCX: Mailr)), kubera ko bimaze kuba murutonde rwabatarundiro. Ibi bivuze neza gusohoka kwabashoramari b'iburengerazuba, nkuko byari bimeze hamwe na Rusal (MCX: kugeza kuri depiska yagabanije umugabane wikigo munsi yo kugenzura.
- Abramovich afite ishoramari muri Evraz (Lon: evre) na Noryilike (McX: GMKN), ariko muri Norkil, nuko Abrigiel, nuko Abrigiel, bityo Abrigie arenga 3-4% atagenzuwe, kandi igihano cy'umuntu ni ntibishoboka guhindukirira isosiyete (MMK Nickel).
- Kugabanya ishoramari muri Federasiyo y'Uburusiya = igabanuka ku nshingano rusange, kandi, nk'igisubizo, no ku mavuta 65-68, naho 72-68 (no ku byohereza ibicuruzwa hanze! ) Muri 2p 2021.
- Nyuma y'igihe, Uburusiya burashobora gufata ingamba z'indorerezi no kugabanya umubare w'ishoramari ry'Abarusiya muri Amerika - Banki Nkuru nyinshi, bireba ko amafaranga y'abashoramari bigenga arohama mu migabane ya Amazone (NASDAQ: AMZN), gukora inyongera. Gusaba USD.
Imyanzuro yishoramari rifatika
Isoko ririhuta cyane, kandi birashoboka ko iki gihano kizashyurwa, Amavuta muri Mata azaba afite + 20% kandi agurisha byose, urashobora kubura amafaranga meza ku cyambu.
Ni muri urwo rwego, nabonye ubwanjye ingamba nyinshi zo kubyakira no gucunga ibyago:
- Aho kugira imigabane ya peteroli na gaze, naguze kazoza gusa. Ntabwo bari ibihano, kandi niba (neza, byagenda bite niba bizagabanya ibyo twatanga ku isoko ryisi, hanyuma amavuta azahaguruka.
- Nashyize ububiko ntabwo ari mubikoresho fatizo gusa, ahubwo nanibutse ku nkuru z'igitsina, harimo na MTS (McX: MSS), imurika), McX: UNIPRO (MCX: UNRO). Gukura kwabo kwagutse birashobora kuba 10-15%, I.e. 20-30% kuri buri mwaka.
- Ubwa mbere gabanya imigereka, ariko rero nahisemo kugarura Norilkiel. Ntekereza ku kintu cya Abramovich ntabwo ari ngombwa, ariko umukino wo gukura k'umuringa ni ngombwa, kandi div ni 10% nazo zirakomeye kuri mahina. Byongeye kandi, uburambe bwa Rusal bwerekanaga ko bidashoboka gufatira ibihano kuri 10% hamwe numusaruro wisi yose yibikoresho bibisi.
- Nasobanuye ko nzubahiriza peteroli na gaze mu rwego rwa apsuit yibanze, ariko ku mpapuro zose za Gazprom, Novatek, Tatneft (McX: TatNOft (MCX: GCX: GOKOH), Gazprom Net yagabanutseho ubunini bwa Umugereka ugera kuri 5-7% byibipimo ngenderwaho 10% / uburemere bwumurenge ntarengwa 20-25% (nubwo nta bihano byashyira 40-4%).
Sinzi ibizaba mbere - ibihano cyangwa imigabane bizakura, kandi nzabagurisha n'inyungu nziza. Ubunini bwumwanya rero nuburyo bwiza bwo kugenzura ibyago byigice cya portfolio.
- Nabigenzuye ko kubijyanye no guta agaciro karubisi, mfite nibura 40% by'ibi yatsinze amafaranga yinjira.
Muri rusange, politiki ni ubwoko bwamazi meza yo gushidikanya kumasoko, kandi ugomba kuba ushobora kuyicunga. Sangira uburyo bwawe no gutekereza mubitekerezo.
Amahirwe masa kumasoko!
Soma ingingo zumwimerere kuri: gushora.com