Kumapeto kwa chaka chatsopano, ndichikhalidwe kumanga mapulani miyezi 12 yotsatira. Masiku ano, pamodzi ndi kafukufuku wa QBF, oleg Bogdanov, timapereka kuponyera kofunikira, msika wa dziko lapansi ndi msika wa Russia ndikuganizira zomwe zikuyenera ku Bet tsopano.
Kukonzekera zoneneratu ndi chinthu chovuta komanso chosayamikirika. Kumbukirani osachepera, mu Disembala womaliza 2019, palibe amene angaganize kuti dziko likadadalira zinthu zomwe zili mliri. Komabe, titha kutcha zochitika zomwe zimatsimikizira mphamvu za msika wamasheya posachedwa.
Tikukambirana za mawonekedwe a miliri ndi zisankho za Joe Bayden monga Purezidenti wa United States, zomwe zimatengera chithunzi cha geopoli.
Mchere ndi World Churwala
Pa Disembala 27, 2020, milandu 80,777,962 ya matenda a Coronavirus adalembetsedwa padziko lapansi. Mwachidziwikire, Covid-19 azipitilizabe kuzungulira ma dziko lapansi asanu padziko lapansi komanso mu 2021. Oyimira milandu ya ku European Commission akuwonetsa kuti kufalikira kwa matendawa kumatengedwa kumatha kumapeto kwa chaka chamawa.Mu Disembala 2020, malo oweta masheya amakhala ndi nkhawa "ku Britain" kwa Coronavirus, omwe amafikira mwachangu kuposa ma analogi omwe kale anali. Tsopano ku London kumayambitsidwa bwino. Mayiko angapo aku Europe, Russia ndi China adaganiza zoyimilira ndege kwakanthawi ndi Britain.
Komabe, m'dzinja la chaka chotuluka chinawonetsa kuti msika wamtsogolo: pakati pa funde lachiwiri la Coronavirus, index cholowera ku mbiri yakale ku Maxima.
Njira yobwezeretsa chuma padziko lonse lapansi sichingasinthe. Ndikokwanira kunena kuti mu Msonkhano wa Disembala wa Fed, USA adakonza zonena za Mphamvu ya GDP ya 2020: zikuyembekezeka kuti pamiyezi khumi ndi iwiri yapitayo, ngakhale mu Seputembala zidaganiziridwa kuti Kuchepa mu GDP kwa 2020 idzakhala 3.6%. Kwa 2021, wogulitsa waku America amaneneratu kukula kwachuma cha ku America mu kuchuluka kwa 4.2% (zomwe zidalipo kale) zidawerengedwa pa 4%).
Oimira ku European Central Banks amayembekeza kubwezeretsa chuma chaka chamawa. Wapampando wa ECB Christine Laagardde adati kuchepa kwa eurozone gdp mu 2020 kumatha kufikira 8.2%, ndipo mu 2022 kuthamanga kwa chuma cha Eurozoone kudzakhala 3.3%.
Mu mafilimu omasulira a Russia, omwe amatulutsidwa pazotsatira zomaliza mu Disembala 18, likunena kuti mu Disembala 18, akuti mu 2020, kuchepa kwa GDP ya dziko lathu kudzafika 4%. Oimira a Resolator amayembekeza kukula kosakhazikika mu mapyerero a 2021.
Kodi ndondomeko ya mabanki aku Central Central ndi iti?
Atsogoleri a mabanki a Central Unings akuwonetsa kuti kubwezeretsa chuma sikungatenge nthawi imodzi, kotero amalengeza kufunika kokhala ndi ndondomeko yofewa ya ndalama komanso pulogalamu yofatsa kwa zaka zikubwerazi.
Referl Reserve SIKUFUNA KUTI MUZIKHALA NDI MTIMA WABWINO KWAMBIRI mpaka kumapeto kwa 2023. Katundu wogula pamwezi mu kuchuluka kwa $ 80 biliyoni ndi $ 40 biliyoni ya mapepala anyumba akufuna kupitiliza asanakhwima zochitika zachuma.
Pa msonkhano wotsiriza, European Central Bank of Europe Chipulumutso cha Eurori of EU pofika ma euro 500 biliyoni - tsopano voliyumu yake yonse idafika 1.85 trillion euro. Pulogalamuyi idzakhala yovomerezeka mpaka kumapeto kwa Marichi 2022, ngakhale zidapangidwa koyambirira kuti ziwonongeke kumapeto kwa June 2021
Bank of Russia tsopano ili pamavuto kwambiri - kuthekera kwake potsanzira ngongole ndi ndalama zake zimakhala zochepa chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa zomwe zikuchitika. Malinga ndi zoneneratu zaposachedwa za banki yapakatikati, kuchuluka kwa kukula kwa mitengo ya ogula mu 2020 ifika 4.6-4.9%. Ngati chaka chikubwerachi, nzeru zanzeru zikakhalabe zodetsa nkhawa, ndizotheka kwambiri kuti wowongolera mwina ali ndi mtengo wofunikira.
Msika ndi msika wa ndalama
Mu Disembala, zokolola pa ngongole khumi zakubadwa zomwe zimafikiridwa 1%. Pakadali pano, matope sangasinthe pulogalamu ya QE, njirayo yochepetsera ndalama zazitali zipitirira, ndipo phindu lawo limakhala ndi mwayi uliwonse wotanthauzira pa 1%.Kugwira ntchito kwa Russian ya Russian ku Rusz kumadalira mphamvu za mtengo wofunikira. Tsopano msika wamsika umayembekezera kuti banki ya Russia idzapitiliza kuwunikira ndalama ndi ndalama. Kukweza mitengo pazinthu 25-50 ndizokayikitsa kusokoneza phindu la zomangira zazitali, koma luso la zinsinsi pakapita nthawi yochepa ingakule.
Mphamvu za ndalama za chaka chikubwerazi zidzadziwitsa mawonekedwe a miliri, zomwe zimachitika pamsika wamafuta, komanso tanthauzo la zivomerezo zotsutsana ndi Russian Federation
Kubwezeretsanso mitengo yamafuta kumatha kulimbikitsa pakulimbitsa ruble - kwa miyezi ingapo, ndalama zapakhomo zimatha kukwera pamtengo mpaka ma ruble 70 pa dola. Ngati, mu theka loyamba la chaka chikubwerachi, kuchuluka kwa kuchuluka kwa matenda a Coronavirus adzakhala okwera, ndipo zomwe tikufuna kuti a Joe Baiden adzakhala olimba, mwinanso ndalama za dollar / ruble zimapita ku zone pamwamba pa 80 ma ruble a dollar waku America.
Munthawi yayitali, ndalama zapadziko lonse zomwe zimayesedwa ngati zotchinga zikapitilizabe kukhala lolimba mwatsatanetsatane, motero ndalama zowerengedwa kwa zaka zingapo, ndikofunikira kuyika madola kapena ma euro. Kugulitsa kwakanthawi kochepa ndalamazi ndi koopsa, monga momwe ziliripo, mu 2021, kulowerera kwa anthu 2021 kudzapitilira m'misika.
Makonda ogulitsa
Mwa ogulitsa nyumba, chidwi cha zokambirana za ku Russia komanso zotetezedwa zimangokulira kutsutsana ndi kungochepetsa phindu la ma banki. Mu 2020, ochita opaleshoni adawonedwa pamsika wathu - kuyambira Januwale mpaka chaka chotulukapo, oposa 4.2 miliyoni oyambira pa Disembala 2020 adatsegulidwa pa state ya Moscow. Chaka chaka chikubwerachi, kufera kwa ogulitsa pa msika wogulitsa kumangokulira.
Kafukufuku wamkulu mu 2021 adzatsimikiziridwanso ndi mawonekedwe a Epidemogical. Ngati kuchuluka kwa matenda sikudzabwera, kumakula misika, kuphatikizapo Chirasha, kumakula mwachangu kuposa kupangidwa. Mabizinesi am'madzi amtunduwu omwe amakhudzidwa kwambiri panthawi ya Lokdanun amatha kuwonjezera msika mwachangu. Pokhala kale mu Novembala - Disembala 2020, kubwezeretsa mawu a mabizinesi a mafakitale omwe adayamba, komanso zida zophika ndi makampani a Migodi.
Ndemanga za zopindulitsa kwambiri za mliri - Omwe adatenga nawo gawo mu gawo la mankhwala ndi mafakitale a ukadaulo - nthawi zambiri, lidzapitilira mu 2021 pamlingo wambiri, komabe, kukula kwa chaka chotuluka sikuwonetsanso
Modzichepetsa kokwanira mu chaka chamawa chidzakhalapo mphamvu zogawana, zomwe zimawonedwa ngati zoteteza, monga mphamvu zamagetsi ndi makampani apanjalale. Adzasungabe kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa mbiri chifukwa cha magawo okhazikika, koma sangathe kuwonetsetsa kuti zipatso zambiri.
Mochenjera, muyenera kubetcha nawo gawo la gawo loyendera - zotsatira za onyamula mpweya wa Russia sizikuchira mu 2021: adzafika pamlingo woyambirira zaka zingapo.
Msika Wapamwamba Wapadziko Lonse ndi Zitsulo Zamtengo Wapatali
Mphamvu yamisika ya anthu idzazindikira kukula kwa vutoli. Ngati katemera wobwera wa miyezi uja akakupatsani mwayi kuti muimize kukula kwa Morbidity ndipo mafakitale adzayamba kuchira, mwinanso kuti msika ubweretse mphamvu zambiri. Zikuoneka kuti pofika kumapeto kwa chaka chikubwerachi, kuchuluka kwa kumwa mafuta kumabwezedwa pamlingo wa mimbulu ya 101 miliyoni patsiku (Uwu ndi zomwe zidachitika kale 2019).
Kubwezeretsa kufunika kudzakhala chinthu chofunikira kwambiri pakuwonjezera mawuwo ndipo mwina, sinthani zikhalidwe za pangano la opera + ndikuwongolera kuchuluka kwa mafuta
Malinga ndi akatswiri ambiri, mu 2021, mtengo wa golide "wakuda udzakhala m'mphepete mwa madola 40 mpaka 60 pa mbiya. Mu kotala loyamba la 2021, pakakhala kusamalira zochitika zovuta za mipesa, mitengo yamphamvu imatha kukonzanso kwakanthawi, koma mascillations ofunikira, monga kumapeto kwa chaka chakupitako, titha kupewa.
Golide ndi chitsulo choteteza, kotero mtengo wake ukukula nthawi ya kusanzira kwambiri. Mtengo wa mbiri yakale kwambiri zam'mtamboli udafika chilimwe cha chaka chotulukapo - Ogasiti 7, 2.068 madola adapatsidwa. Kenako mpaka kumapeto kwa Novembala, mtengo wa golide unachepa - Novembara 30, malonda otsekeka ndi zotsatira za $ 1.780 pa ide. Mu Disembala 2020, Mphamvu zabwino zidadziwikanso - pa Disembala 25, mtengo udapitilira mulingo wa 1880 madola.
Ngati mu 2021 Tidzaona kubwezeretsa kwachuma, ndalama pang'onopang'ono kumachepetsa chida chowongolera m'matumba, motero, kufunikira kwa zitsulo zamtengo wapatali ndi mtengo wawo kumatha kubweretsa zovuta zoipa. Komabe, panthawi yopanda tanthauzo la zolemba zagolide, Maxima a Maxima amathanso kusintha.
Pakapita nthawi, golide adzakula. Ndikotheka kuti malire a madola 2000 pa 2021 adzatsaliranso: zolemba zimatha kusinthasintha mumphepete mwa 2000 mpaka $ 2,200
Kubwezeretsa zachuma ku zotsatira za mliri wayamba kale, koma sikukhala lalifupi, kulandidwa nthawi yochulukitsa. Chaka chaka chikubwerachi, sizokayikitsa kupewa nthawi zosemphana ndi kusatsimikizika, koma ngakhale pamavuto, ndimalangiza kuti ndalama zomwe zikuyenera kumbukirani kuti zovuta zilizonse zomwe zili ndi mwayi. Momwe zochitika zadziko lapansi zidzayambidwira mdziko lapansi komanso makampani ogulitsa nyumba azikhala ndi nthawi.
Oleg Bogdanov,
Wotsogola QBF.