Kuyambira chiyambi cha chaka, kafukufuku wa Wallbanki Wall Street akuwoneka kuti akufuna kuneneratu za ng'ombe zochokera pakuyembekeza zachuma pambuyo pa mliri ndi kuchotsedwa kwa njira zonse zopitilira muyeso. Zoneneratu za theka loyamba la Goldman SACHS $ 70 pa mbiya, yomwe ndi miyezi ingapo yapitayo ambiri amawoneka olimba mtima, adakwaniritsidwa pa Marichi 8. Mafuta adabwerera ku milingo yomwe adalumphira kumayambiriro kwa chiyambi cha Januware 20, komwe amagulitsidwa ku Africa Kassem Balmani, pomwe ophunzirira msika anali Kudikirira kukwera kwankhondo kwa kutsutsidwa kwa United States ndi Iran. Kuchokera ku milingo imeneyi zitadziwika kuti zomwe sizinachitike, kuchepa kwa mafuta kunayamba, komwe kudayamba kugwa motsutsana ndi kuwonongeka kwa mapangano a Opec ndi kuwonongeka chifukwa cha lakuthwa. Kuponyera mafuta mu dziko lapansi chifukwa cha zovuta, choyamba - ndikutsekedwa kwa China.
Kodi ndinganene chiyani za mitengo tsopano? Kodi ali oyenera, komanso kuti adikire kukula mtsogolo? Chifukwa $ 100 imakhalanso zenizeni munthawi yayitali komanso yapakatikati (patali ya chaka kapena ziwiri) zoneneratu. Ambiri akhulupirira kuti ayambe "zida zapamwamba kwambiri". Amakumana ndi izi kuti anthu omwewo adakangana kuti mafuta sadzakhala 100 pa mbiya, chifukwa makampani a Shale sadzavomereza kuti United States isakwaniritse. Adzadzaza msika wamafuta kale 80, ziribe kanthu kuchuluka kwa Saudi ndi Russia limodzi sakuchepetsa.
Mutu uli ndi miyeso iwiri: nthawi yayifupi - chaka chamawa, ndi kwanthawi yayitali - patali kwa zaka zingapo. Yerekezerani mfundo ziwiri: Kuyamba kwa Januware 2020 ndi pano. Ndipo, ndipo tsopano Brent Mafuta anali pafupifupi $ 70. Chinali maziko otani nthawiyo, ndipo tsopano?
1. Kenako kuyembekezera kuchuluka kwa mikangano ku Middle East, tsopano ziyembekezo zomwe zikubwezeretsedwa tsopano ndi Iran zikuwoneka bwino, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ziwonjezeke ku Iran. Chochita cha geopolititical sichimveka mokomera mitengo yapano.
2. Kenako, ndipo tsopano Mgwirizano wa Opera + anali kugwira ntchito, koma zoletsa sizinali zokhazikika kuposa masiku ano. Tsopano pali mawu ambiri, ndipo Saudi anachotsa mwakufuna kwanu 1 miliyoni kapena tsiku kuchokera kumsika, ndikunena kuti amayesetsanso kuchepetsa masheya. Ndondomeko ya Opera + ikukomera mitengo yokwera kwambiri yapano.
3. Kufuna kwapadziko lonse sikugwirizana ndi mitengo yamakono, zofuna zapadziko lonse sizinapezenso, zoletsa zokhazikika zidakali ku Europe, zikuipiraipira, m'masabata aposachedwa funso likuwalimbikitsanso. Komabe, tsopano pali ziyembekezo zobwezeretsanso kufunika kwa kufunikira kwa milingo isanathe kumapeto kwa mliri. Momwe mungafunire posachedwa - funsoli ndi lotseguka. China, zomwe zili m'munsi mwa $ 50 pa mbiya zachulukitsa mafuta ndi manambala awiri (mwa kuchuluka kwa chaka) pofika pachaka) Pofika pa chisotini, tsopano wachitika kale zikopa zake - zomwe sizimachitika kuti agulitse. Chiwerengero cha zofuna ndi pano ndipo kumayambiriro kwa 2020 sikugwirizana ndi mitengo yamakono. Koma ngati mungaganizire kuti msika wa misika, mutha 'kukhululuka' pa birrel pa birren, ngati mukukhulupirira kuti mliri utha.
4. Chinthu chofunikira kwambiri pamsika wa katundu ndi ndondomeko yodyetsa ndalama ndi mndandanda wa dolor. Pali zinthu zonse zomwe zili m'malo mwa zinthu zapamwamba. Fed amatsimikizira Zero Mitengo mpaka inflance imadzutsa mpaka 2%. Komanso, ngati m'mbuyomu 2%, inali 2% pakadali pano, tsopano 2%, ndi gawo lina laukadaulo, kuwerengeredwa pamaziko a zaka 5. Ngati tikuona kuti 2% sanali m'nthawi yamavuto, chikhumbo chokakamira cha 2% pavale chimapangitsa zaka zingapo, kukwera mtengo kumakhala pamwamba pa 2%. Mitengo yeniyeni ku United States pamisika yamsika ya ndalama ikhoza kukhala osalimbikitsa. Kukula kwa ndalama zopindulitsa kwa dollar, komwe kuyambira pachiyambi cha chaka chikavala ndalama ndikukhumudwitsa ena angapo mpaka theka la 92, kapena kuyimilira. Dorter Index ndiye kuti ikuyenera kupitilizabe kuchepa. Dollar wofooka ndiye vuto lalikulu pakukula kwa mitengo ya katundu, inali pa dola lomwe mafuta lidakulirako kumayambiriro kwa ma R00 ndikuyika mbiri yake nthawi yomweyo pomwe dola ya cyclic imayika.
5. Komabe, pakadali pano dola imakulitsidwa pamantha kuti mupitilize kukula kwa zipatso za madola, ndipo zokolola zenizeni zikukula.
Mosiyana ndi chitsimikizo cha kudyetsedwa, ogulitsa akuyamba kuopa kuti Fed adzakakamizidwa kuti abwerere nthawi yocheza ndi nthawi yopumira. Pakadali pano mikhalidwe yazachuma ndi yolimba. Kukula kwakanthawi kochepa kwa dollar sikugwirizana ndi mitengo yazinthu, ndipo ngati chizolowezi sichitembenukira m'masiku akubwerawo, ndiye mafuta, omwe akuwoneka kuti ndi omwe akukula pang'ono, mwina amakonzedwa.
6. Migodi ya Shale, yomwe kumayambiriro kwa 2020, yomwe tsopano yakhalabe yosatha, ndipo pa $ 70 pa mbiya ($ 66 pa mbiya ya WTI) ikukula. Chiwerengero chomwe chilipo ku United States Malinga ndi Bakes Hughes, chikuwonjezeka kuyambira chilimwe.
Zolepheretsa zaposachedwa zitha kulembedwa pa kukakamiza majeure ku Texas, pomwe gawo lalikulu la migodi idayima chifukwa cha kuzizira kwambiri. Idzabwezeretsedwa posachedwa. Shale Factor - Poletsa kuthamanga kwa mitengo, idzatero, idzalepheretsa kukula kwawo.
Kodi chidule cha zinthu zonse zomwe zalembedwa mtsogolo ndi chiyani? Kodi mitengo ikukula, kapena kuti kukula kudzayima tsopano, ndipo tiwona kukonzedwa? Ndikosavuta kunena za kufunika kwa zinthu zonse, makamaka kuyambira nthawi yomwe unyinji wa ogulitsa ndi chinthu chimodzi, ndiye kuti wina ayamba ntchito yofunika kwambiri. Kenako gululo limakhulupirira 'tsogolo labwino "litakhala ndi mliri, nthawi imeneyo, limayamba kukhulupirira kuti pambuyo palimbelo, apocalypse kupezeka. Kuphatikiza apo, zikhulupiriro zonsezi zitha kuchitika mofananamo, koma m'misika yosiyanasiyana, mwachitsanzo, mwachitsanzo, zidapangitsa kuti zidodometse zolimbitsa thupi - pomwe ogulitsa mafuta amakhulupirira "Tsogolo Lanuli" Kuchita mantha ndi kuchuluka kwa phindu.
Komabe, tiyesa ... Tiyeni tiyambe ndi kufunsa ndi opera. Kutha pafupifupi fiasco yatha chaka chatha, ndikulakalaka kusamala, komanso kuti asamalire kuposa kukwiya. Mimba miliyoni yomwe imachotsedwa ndi Saudis kuchokera kumsika, imagwira ntchito yakwapula komanso gingerbrbreapa nthawi yomweyo. Ngati ambiri ku Operac + alankhula motsutsa chingwe cha Arabu, sadzangochulukirachulukira, komanso kubwereranso kwa Miliyoni iyi kumsika. Pakafupi kanthawi kochepa, ndizotheka, aserapo oyambira oterewa sangataye chilichonse, koma iwo omwe amalimbikira zochulukitsa - amataya mitengo yowonjezera, ngakhale poganizira zowonjezera. Malingaliro a Saudis ku Opera + amawoneka olimba, ndipo adzaumiriza chifukwa cha zinthu zochepa. Amasewera pamtengo, ndipo masewerawa achitika, ndizotheka, mbali imodzi yokhala ndi a Care Canchbanks, omwe ali "kupota" Mutu wa mtengo kumawonjezeka. Kodi ndichifukwa chiyani Saudi, akupanga mikhalidwe yokwera mitengo, kuti asatengere pa kukula kumeneku pa ce kupeza ndi komweko? Chuma + chimalipira ndipo likupitilizabe kulipirira chinthu chofooka. Tidzatero, pokhudzana ndi izi, tiganiza kuti zinthu 2 ndi 3 mndandanda womwe uli pamwamba tsopano ndi wina ndi mnzake.
Zomwe zimapangitsa kuti kutumiza ku Iranan ku America, slange yaku America ndi mawonekedwe a msika wa dollar. Chidacho cholosera panochi ndi chokha cha ku America ndi ndondomeko ku United States patali kwambiri. Migodi ikukula, ndipo ndalama zomwe zingakhale zofewa. Pa zolimba kwambiri zonsezi zonsezi ndizotheka kuzimalana. Mu 2018, mafuta ofooka a dollar adayendetsa kudera la $ 80 pa mbiya. Myment Index, ndiye kuti mu theka loyamba la chaka chomwe anali chokhazikika pansipa 90. Ngati mukukhulupirira kudyetsedwa, muthanso kukhulupilira kuti index ya dollar ibwerera mtsogolo 90, ndipo idzalowa pamenepo. Kenako, zinthu zina zimakhala zofanana, mutha kuyembekezera kupitiliza kukula kwa mitengo yamafuta mpaka $ 80 pa mbiya. Bwanji osatero, popeza china chake chinali chosiyana kale? Komanso, tsopano kulibe Trump, yemwe Twetter wake akhoza "kufuula" pa Opera, kuwalimbikitsa kuti achepetse mitengo, pakadali pano, kuchepa kwa mgwirizano wankhondo.
Ngati Iranian chinthu cha Iran ndi chizindikiro cha minus (cha mafuta, chomwe chikuwonjezera ku Iran chidzafalikira kuchokera m'njira yoti Irana a Iran ithe kuwonjezera kunja). Inrano Inlian imafanana ndi dollar yofooka pamodzi ndi kukula kwa kupanga kwa shale, ndipo kuyesayesa kwamitengo kwamitengo kumathamangira kwinakwake pamtunda wa $ 70 ... 75 pa bambalo. Koma ngati chinthu aku Iran ikaseweredwa cha kukula kwa mavuto mu Middle East, ndiye ... ndiye mbiri ya chiyambi cha 00s mwina kubwereza. Nkhondo ija ikakhala yoyendetsa bwino kukula kwa mitengo yamafuta kumapeto koyambirira kwa bizinesi yatsopano ikatha, ndikufunsa zomwe zidatha kunenepa kwambiri $ 100 pa mbiya. Ndipo, zindikirani, kenako mafuta ndiye kuti ndi msika wa kumbuyo uja ku United States, ngakhale, pamapeto pake, adamaliza limodzi komaliza mu 2008.
Chifukwa chake palibe chosatheka pa $ 100 pa mbiya ngati boma lino, njira ina kapena ina, idzatsogolera ku nyengo yatsopano ya Middle East. Kutsutsana ndi zoyembekeza zoterezi, pali zochitika za mbiri yakale: American Democrat, yemwe adachotsa mphamvu yonse ku USA (Purezidenti komanso wambiri), akufuna kusewera pakati pa udindo wa "amtendere" . Komabe, pali chiyeso chachikulu chopha, mophiphiritsa, mophiphiritsa, muyeso umodzi wa ku China, kuti achepetse mpikisano wa China, yemwe amapereka mpikisano wopezekapo Mtima wobiriwira mphamvu. Ngati mafuta abwereranso pamwamba pa $ 100 pa mbiya, ikhale yolimbikitsa kwambiri pokana mafuta a hydrocarbon mokomera mitundu ina ya mphamvu kuposa ndalama za bajeti.
Tiyeni tiwone momwe mfundo zakunja zidzachitikira. Ngakhale zikuwoneka kuti ndi zinthu zandale zomwe zimatsimikiziranso kukula kwa mtengo wamafuta, chifukwa zachuma, limodzi ndi mfundo za opera +, kapena zikuchitika kale mtsogolomo.
Dmitry Golibovsky Katswiri Fg "Kalita-Caffee"
Werengani nkhani zoyambirira za: kuwononga ndalama.com