Kuwerenga dzulo dzulo kunayima ndikubwerera komwe kugwirira ntchito kumatsika, oimira a FED amatsutsa QEE Resectction ndi zoopsa zomwe zimakhazikika. Mlingo wofunikira wa dollar tsopano wakhala wolemba kwambiri m'mawa. Tikuyembekezera malangizo kuchokera kwa omwe amadyetsedwa pambuyo pa masabata ovuta, komanso onaninso momwe masiku omaliza a lipenga adzachitikira.
Mitu yayikulu yogulira lero:
USD: Kuchepetsa kubwerera komwe kunadzetsa kufika pa rallo
Kuphatikizika kwa dollar yaku US dzulo kudafika pachimake ndikutembenuka. Chimodzi mwa zifukwa zimene ichi - mawu a atsogoleri a mabanki atatu Fedrev (Bullard, George ndi Rosengrena, onse a iwo sanali kugwira a FOMC) ndi kusintha ndondomeko kugula malamulo, komanso kubwezeretsa yowopsa amaganiza ndi Mwamwambo wam'ng'ono pazaka 10 za ndalama zolemera, pambuyo pake phindu limabwereranso ku nsonga yawo.
Chofunika: Lero, mamembala ambiri a FED achita masana, kuphatikizapa tcheyaman Richard Claid, yemwe adzanenere za mtundu watsopano wowongolera.
Kubwerera dzulo ku US Kugulitsa kumatanthauza kukula kwa gawo lophatikiza kuphatikizidwa, ngakhale gawo lino silikulongosoka kugogoda malo ofooka musanayambenso kukhalapo, chifukwa zinali zochepa kwambiri. Tiyeni tiwone momwe msika umabwerera mwachangu pamitu yabwino komanso yomwe idzakhale yotsegulira Byyden, chifukwa ku USA, ziwonetsero za chitsutsatu Choyimira chokha chokha.
Zambiri zatsopano: CPI ku USA ndi malonda ku China
Zina mwazomwe zinali zofunika kuchitika ndi December CPI ya United States. Amadyetsedwa makamaka makamaka pa kuchuluka kwa ogula, koma mkuluyu adapitilira milungu ingapo m'mbuyomu. Palibe chodabwitsa apa chikuyembekezeka apa, ngakhale mitengo ya mafuta a Disembala kuti alemo. Chosangalatsa kwambiri chidzakhala kuyerekeza kwa Epulo ndi miyezi yotsatira yomwe ili ndi miyezi yomaliza ya chaka chatha, omwe adapatsidwa chilengedwe chonse. Ponena za Disembala, kubangula kwa IPC ikuyembekezeka ku 1.3% y / y (panali 1.2% mu Novembala), ndipo y% y / y.
Nawonso usiku uno, deta pa malonda aku China mu Disembala amafalitsidwa; Kuchepetsa kwina mu zochulukirapo, komwe kwafika $ 75 biliyoni mu Novembala. Njira zolimbikitsira zotengedwa kuchokera chaka chatha zapereka kunja kwa China ndi chithandizo champhamvu. Koma musaiwale kuti kukondoweza kumakhudza chilichonse, kuphatikizapo zotulukapo za zikwangwani, kupanga zakudya, mphamvu, zitsulo ndi zinthu zina zomwe zimafunikira China kuti ipange mtengo wotumiza katundu wogulitsa. Mitengo yamafuta ikukula, ndi malingaliro athu pamsika woletsani ma hansen omwe amasintha kwambiri mitengo yomwe imafunikira kuti ma dizilo aziyankha. Nthawi yomweyo, mafuta ku China zaka zingapo zapitazi zachulukitsa zisanu ndi chimodzi, ndipo mafuta amwazi mu zaka zisanu ndi zaka zitatu. Chizindikiro chofunikira cha inflation ku China ndilodi index ya mitengo yopanga.
Ndandanda: EURGBBP.
Gulu lodziwika bwino lomwe lili mu G10 limawonetsa kasunda kaundi, dzulo kuti lizimitsidwa kubungwe litatha kubuluka kwa banki ku England Bailey kutsutsa chiwonetsero chonyansa. Poganizira zovuta ku United Kingdom, ndipo malo oyambira ndi oyambira ndi oyambira a asirikali pambuyo poti akwatire, osanenapo kuti ndikadaganiza kuti ndikanakakamiza banki ku England kuti Fotokozerani mitengo yoyipa. Ichi ndi chizindikiro chakuti mapaundiwo ali ndi malire kwambiri otetezeka. Kuphatikiza pa kuchuluka kwaposachedwa pamwambapa 1,3700 pa 2,3700 awiri a GBPUSD, amatsatira pafupifupi 0,8900 ku Eurgbp, kusokonekera komwe kungachititse kuti azithandizira 0,8300; Komabe, zimatha kuchepa kwa 0.8600, ngati zikupitilira nthawi yonse - posachedwa panali kayendedwe kangapo.
Source: Saxo Gulu
Chidule Mwachidule cha G10 ndi Yuan Ndalama
USD - m'mawa uno dollar imayesa kukweza kwatsopano pambuyo pa kugwa kwa dzulo, koma kupambana kumatheka kokha ndi kutsika kwamphamvu kokhala ndi zoopsa mu zinthu zosiyanasiyana.
Cnh - Yuan sakupatuka kwambiri kuchokera kuzikhalidwe wamba, kulimbikitsa ku Euro ndikukhala pamwamba pa zophunzitsira zamitundu.
EUR - Banja Eurowd m'mawa uno pambuyo pa Jerg ya dzulo, mwinanso kuphatikiza mpaka 1,2065 kapena ngakhale chizindikiro cha zamaganizidwe 1.2000.
Jyy - YENE nthawi yochepetsera dzulo imakhalanso yophatikizika, ndipo awiri a USDJJYPPY idatsala mu njira yotsika. Zingakhale zopitilira mpaka kuona kuchuluka kwamiyendo kuti ikhazikike - ndiye, kupatsidwa malire a njirayi, awiriwo atha kukhala okwera kwambiri.
GBP - Sterling Sterling, koma ndi wabodza dontho ili kapena patsogolo pa kupitirira? Zachidziwikire, kukana kwa mutu wa banki ku England kuchokera ku miyambo yoyipa kumathandizanso, koma kuchuluka kwenikweni kwa ndalama m'dzikolo ndikofunikira. Penyani milingo ya 1,3705 ku GBPUSD ndi 0,8865 ku Eurgbpp.
CHF - Franc oundana, koma pali mzere wosangalatsa ndipo, mwina, chithunzi cha "mutu ndi mapewa" ku USDchf pafupi 0.8920, kuti chikhomo ichi chikufunika kutsatira ngati dola itabweranso yolimbikitsa.
Aud - Dollar waku Australia adadumpha pambuyo pogulitsa, koma nthawi zambiri zimawoneka ngati zochulukirapo, ndipo sizokayikitsa kuti kuyesa kuphatikizidwa kumakhala kochepa kwa izi. Kuti muopseze momveka bwino, zomwe zimachitika mmwamba zidzafunika kutsika mu 0.7700 ndi mtundu wa 0.7666 wafika pa Lolemba.
CAD - Kuthamanga kwamafuta kumakankha CAD kukafika ku USD. Komabe, pa tchati chokhacho, USDcad imawoneka kutopa kwina, ndipo zopyola ndalama ndizotheka malinga ndi 1.3000.
NZD - Australia imapeza zatsopano za Zealarn ndipo pamapeto pake zimasiyanitsidwa ndi machaka oyenda masiku 200. Ndikuyembekeza kuwonjezeka patapita nthawi yayitali, kuyambira ndi kusintha kwa dera la 1.1000lo.
Sek - Swedesh Crohn adataya mphamvu mu eurlek, koma mozama adzaopsezedwa kuti angosamala pa 10,12-10.15, ngakhale awiriwo atakonzedweratu, kuwona mitengo yamafuta.
Nok - Crownland korona amasangalala ndi mtengo wamafuta; Kuchepa kwa Ernonu koloko kudera la 10,50-10.40 amatsegula njirayo mpaka 1000.
Zochitika Zomwe Zimabwera Zakale Zakale (nthawi ya zochitika zonse zikuwonetsedwa ndi Greenwich):
18:00 - Kulankhula ndi L. BANIDWA KWA DZIKO LAPANSI (VEM SEMC) 19:00 - Chidule cha nkhani za ku US Fomec) pamutu wa malamulowa a Resothary 02: 00 - Banja ndi kutumiza kunja / ku China kwa China kwa Disembala
John Hardiy, Wothandizira Mtengo Wamtundu wa Saxo Bank