Makina ogulitsa apalasi sagwiranso ntchito

Mtundu wapamwamba wa mbiri ya zida zamadzi zachuma kwa zaka 30 zapitazi. 60/40 ": 60% ya magawo, 40% ya zomangira. Malinga ndi kuwerengetsa kwa a Jpmorgan Chuma, zokolola zapachaka za mbiri yotere mu 1999-2018. anakwana 5.2% mu madola. Koma m'zaka 5-0 zotsatira, panthawi yatsopanoyo, mbiri yotsatsa ngati imeneyi imatha kupereka ndalama zochepa, ndipo zimabweretsa zowonongeka konse, nyumba zodziwika bwino zomwe zawerengedwa. Kodi ogulitsa ndalama amakhala ndi mwayi wopanga ndalama zochulukirapo?

Chinachitika ndi chiyani

Pamtima ya kuwerengera kwa a Jpmorgan Chuma Kuyika chithunzi, 60% yomwe idakhazikitsidwa mu s & p 500 index ndi 40 - ku US Bloogberg US Recregate. Nthawi yosankhidwa ndiyabwino kuti isanthulidwe ndi zovuta, monga momwe zimakhalira zovuta m'misika ya masheya pachaka, pomwe mssi padziko lonse lapansi adatsika kwambiri: 2008 (-40.3%). Ngakhale izi, dokotala wachitsanzo amalola pafupifupi ma 5.2% pachaka.

Wogulitsa ndalama wamba adalandira zochepa: malinga ndi Dalbars, zokolola zenizeni pazithunzi zenizeni zokwana 1.9% pachaka. Makonda a Dalbars amadalira ziwerengero zogulitsa mwezi uliwonse ndikugulitsa ndalama zomwe American amakhala ndi ndalama zapamwamba. Kusiyana kotereku kumafotokozedwa, choyamba, chomwe ogulitsa anthu wamba anali kuchita malonda kuti apeze phindu lalifupi, lomwe mu nthawi yayitali ndi njira yopanda tanthauzo. Komabe, ili ndi mutu woti mumvetse.

Zomwe zikubwera

Magawo amagawana mitengo idachokera zenizeni. Tsopano ndizosatheka kuneneratu phindu la ndalama kwa miyezi 6-12 - zisonyezo zazikulu za makampani sizikhudzidwa kwenikweni chifukwa cha ndalama zazifupi. Koma akuwonetsadi ndalama zochepa pamtunda wa zaka 10. Zoneneratu zazitali zazitali za ndalama zapakati pazogulitsa m'misika yamayiko osiyanasiyana, GMO ndi ena lero ndikupereka zokolola zosaposa 0-2% pachaka. Ndipo msika wa masheya umanyamuka posachedwa, ndalama zochepa zilandila zaka khumi zotsatira.

Ndi zomangira zoyipa kwambiri. Zokolola zenizeni (potengera kuchuluka kwa akaunti) kwa magwiridwe antchito a corporate okhala ndi chuma chambiri chomwe chikutsogolera, United States ndi Germany yakhala yopanda chiyembekezo. Mwanjira ina, ndalama zomwe mumapeza zimachepetsa mphamvu yogulira ndalama.

Muzochitika zoterezi, mbiri yakale "60/40" imatha kuwonetsa ndalama zoipa zenizeni m'zaka 10 zikubwerazi. Kampani yoyang'anira nthano gmo akuneneratu kuti zaka khumi zapitazo zidzakhala "zotayika" pazithunzi zoterezi

Mozomer yopangidwa ndi wolamulira wolamulira a John Hussman, yemwe amadziwika kuti ali ndi maphunziro awo ogulitsa, ndi 60% ya magawo, 30% ya ndalama ndi 10% ndalama - amapereka ndalama zomwe zingachitike.

Maganizo osasangalatsa awa ndi zotsatira za kupanikizika kwa bizinesi yatsopano m'misika yamashetse. Pazaka kwa zaka 2-3 tiwona zochitika zitatu, zomwe zidzakhala zodetsa kwambiri m'makalasi onse a Chuma:

• Kukula kwa inflaty.
• Chiwongola dzanja.
• Kumaliza kwa jakisoni wamtundu wamatanda m'misika yamasheya ndi mabanki apakati.

Njira ina yogulitsa

Ogwira ntchito pawokha omwe sanakonzeka kupirira ndi zopindulitsa pafupi ndi mbiri yakale m'zaka zikubwerazi, zomwe zikubwera kuti zichitike mwa akatswiri. Ambiri a iwo amamvetsetsa kuti zomangira zimadziipitsa kuposa chuma china chakalasi, motero zimachepetsa gawo la zomangira zina zogulitsa ndalama zina.

Chimodzi mwazinthu zolemekezeka kwambiri ku madera - yunivesite ya Eale University - kwa zaka 20, kuyambira June 2000, adalandira ndalama zambiri pachaka 920. Mu chithunzi cha mbiri ya maziko pa 2021, kulemera kwakukulu (64.5%) kumawerengedwa chifukwa cha zida zina, zomwe:

23.5% - Njira Zapamwamba Zokwanira Ndalama Zapamwamba (njira zobwezeretsedwa kwathunthu). Izi nthawi zambiri zimakhala dengu la ndalama zomwe zimagulitsa, kuphatikiza ndalama zomwe akufuna kupeza ndalama zabwino m'mikhalidwe yonse: kukula, kugwa kapena kugwa kapena msika. Nthawi zambiri, dengu ili limakhala ndi vuto locheperako kuposa mbiri yachikhalidwe, ndipo chojambula chotsika mtengo pa kugwa kwa msika;

23.5% - Zoyambira (Mpaka likulu la Mbiri, gawani mu mbiri);

17.5% - Ndalama zomwe zimaphatikizika ndi ndalama zophatikizika ndi kugwiritsa ntchito phewa (zobwezeretsa, lbo).

Akatswiri ena ambiri akatswiri amawonjezeranso ntchito zina zogulitsa. Tsopano chitoliro chosangalatsa chikuwonetsa zopanga ndi ndalama zomwe zimasungira ndalama zamalonda ndizokhudza 7% moona kwa miyezi 12. M'zaka zingapo zapitazi, ndalama zobwereketsa (ngongole zapadera) zikutchuka kwambiri - ndi njira ina ku Bareaucratic Banks, malamulo omwe amawunika chaka chilichonse. Kupindula koyembekezereka ndi 5% chaka chikubwerachi.

Kuthana ndi izi si kwa onse: tikiti yolowera ndiokwera mtengo kwambiri. Kwa ndalama za hedge, zimayamba ndi $ 1 miliyoni. Koma poyambira ndalama kumayambiriro kwa $ 10,000-500-500,000. Zonse zimatengera ntchitoyi. Mutha kupeza ngongole zabwino, zomwe zimatengedwa ku ofesi ya $ 100,000. Mu madoko olemera achuma %.

M'masika apadziko lonse lapansi, chifukwa cha lingaliro langa, ndi njira yopambana kwambiri ikhale njira yogwira ntchito, yomwe ili pa:

• Makampani apamwamba kwambiri okhala ndi matekinoloje aluso ndikukula kwathunthu (kukula masheya);
• Makampani omwe ali ndi bizinesi yokhazikika komanso phindu lokhazikika, lomwe limakonzedwanso mu bizinesi (ma counda);
• Makampani akuwonetsa matekinoloje abwino omwe amasintha kapangidwe ka mafakitale ndi chuma (zosokoneza).

Koma ndi onse ogulitsa, amalimbikitsidwa kutsatira malamulo atatu ofunika kwambiri:

• Zilibe kanthu ndalama zomwe mumapeza, - kupambana kwa ndalama ndikupewa kutayika kwakukulu komwe kumatha kukhala zotayika kwambiri zomwe zimatha kukhala zoopsa zomwe zingachitike ndi ndalama zanu.
• Ndikofunika kupewa malonda aliwonse azachuma, mapulogalamu oyang'anira ndalama, komwe simumvetsetsa zonse zomwe zidalili. Kodi muli ndi chiyani kwenikweni? Kodi ndalama zimapanga bwanji ndalama pa chida ichi? Kodi zoopsa ndi ziti? Kodi Kusowa Kumakhala Chiyani? Komanso zinthu zina zambiri zaluso zomwe zimafunikira kuti zitheke kupeza mayankho ogwira ntchito.
• Ndikofunikira kupeza mulingo wanu wabwino. Matalikidwe a oscillatrance amsika wa Russia, kupatula zaka zoyipa (2008, 2014, 2020), pafupifupi misika yopangidwa - pafupifupi 10%. Ngati simunakonzeka kutenga matalikidwe a Oscillations, zikutanthauza kuti gawo la magawo omwe ali ndi zinthu zomwe mungachite 10%, komanso gawo la ndalama zowerengera (zosungira) ziyenera kukhala zochulukirapo. Ngati wogulitsa ndalamayo amatenga chiopsezo, chomwe chili pamwamba pamsika, ndiye kuti nthawi yayitali pamsika, nthawi zambiri pamakhala mayankho olakwika ndipo nthawi zambiri amapanga cholakwika chazachuma - amagulitsa zida zomwe amafunikira kuti agule.

Ndikulakalaka zonse zopambana!

Malingaliro a wolemba sangafanane ndi mawonekedwe a VITI.