Iwu ụlọ ọrụ akụ na ụba, na-akpali uto akụ na ụba, bụ iwu ego. Site n'enyemaka nke ọnụego pasent etinyere, ego enyere na usoro ego mba mba nke obodo. Akụ na ụba United States na-egosipụta ngwa ngwa n'oge na-adịghị ike: oriri na mmepụta na mmepụta; enweghị ọrụ; Ọnụego ọnụ ala. N'akụkụ a, a na-amanye US Federal Reserve iji belata ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa iji nweta ọkwa onu oriri, nke ga-enwe ike ime ka ụlọ ọrụ akụ na ụba maka ọrụ ọkachamara. Oge ikpeazụ nke usoro Reserve Reserve malitere belata ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa site na July 1820, nke mere ka o kwe omume ịbawanye ego ma belata uru mba ụwa nke US dollar US. Ọrụ akụ na ụba bidoro naghachi, mana ọ bụghị ịdị mma dịka ọ ga-achọ (ọgụgụ 1).
Ọnụego dị irè maka ego gọọmentị etiti nke usoro nchekwa nchekwa US bụ ihe dị oke mma maka ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa na ego ụlọ akụ na-agbazinye ego; Ọkwa nwere mmasị na arụmọrụ n'etiti ndị otu United Federal Reserve Sistem. Ọnụ ahịa dị irè maka ego gọọmentị etiti nke US Federal Reserve kwesịrị kwekọrọ na ego gọọmentị etiti, nke Kọmitii Federal na arụmọrụ na arụmọrụ nke sistemụ Federal Reserve. A na-enweta uru dị ukwuu nke ọnụego ya site n'enyemaka nke arụmọrụ dị n'ahịa a: zụta nkekọ gọọmentị na-abawanye ego ma belata ọnụego ya; Ire nke Agbụ Gọọmentị na-ebelata ego ma bulie nzọ. N'akụkụ a, ọ dị mkpa ịtụle ọnụego ego dị na United States (ọgụgụ 2).
Ngalaba M2 bụ usoro nke ego (ego ma lelee nkwụnye ego - M1), nkwụnye ego nke ụlọ, obere nkwụnye ego na ego nke ahịa na-ere ahịa. Ihe nchịkọta M2 ego na-egosipụta ego na sara mbara ma bụrụ akụkụ nke ego na-enye. Na-akpali ọrụ akụ na ụba na United States n'ihi nsogbu akụ na ụba site na usoro ego dị nro na -ebelata ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa site na sistemu nchekwa ego US na akụrụngwa ya nke nchịkọta M2 ego. Yabụ, mkpebi nke oge ikpeazụ nke usoro nchekwa nchekwa US bụ iji belata ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa, nke chọrọ ịzụta ego na-abawanye (M2 ego) (ọgụgụ 3) .
Usoro ego dị nro nke nke US Federal Reserve Medve na-emetụta ike dollar US. Iji gosi na ihe ae kwuru, ọ bụ ihe amamihe dị na ya inyocha njikọ nke uru mba ụwa nke US dollar na ọmụrụ nwa ọmụrụ nwa nke US Federal Reserves. E guzobere usoro dị n'etiti Index US (y, paragraf) na ọnụego Federal Reserve (X, Jenụwarị 2021, nke na-egosipụta mmekọrịta dị mma nke ihe ngosi ego. A na-arụ otu ihe eji arụ ọrụ na-arụ ọrụ: y = 88,12 + 1,2199 ∙ x. Copecfication starfication Rxy = 0.315 bụ njikọ dị mma. Coefficity exy = 0.045 - obere ihe na-enweghị ihe. Njehie dị ka = 8.6% - n'ime oke nkịtị. Nchịkọta Fancy FFact = 46.1 ọzọ FTAB = 3.86 - nha anya dị ka ihe dị mkpa (Isiokwu 1).
Ọ dịkwa mma inyocha njikọ nke uru mba ụwa nke US dollar na ọnụego dị irè maka ego gọọmentị etiti nke usoro Federal Reserve. E guzobela usoro dị n'etiti Index US (Y, ihe) na ọnụahịa dị irè maka ego gọọmentị etiti nke usoro Federal Reserve (X55 - Disemba 2020. A na-arụ otu ihe eji arụ ọrụ na-arụ ọrụ: y = 88,11 + 1.2218 ∙ x. Copecfication starfication Rxy = 0.315 bụ njikọ dị mma. Coefficity exy = 0.045 - obere ihe na-enweghị ihe. Njehie dị ka = 8.6% - n'ime oke nkịtị. Nchịkọta Fank FFact FFact = 46.0 dị elu karịa FTAB = 3.86 - nha nha anya dị oke mkpa (Isiokwu 2).
Ọ bụkwa ihe amamihe dị na ya inyocha njikọ nke uru mba ụwa nke US dollar na ngalaba M2 na United States n'oge oge. N'ime December 1985 - Mmekọrịta 2020, mmekọrịta njikọ dị n'etiti Index US na United States: nchịkọta M2 ego na United States: Nhazi Nhazi bụ RXY = -0.178. N'akụkụ a, ọ dị mkpa inyocha njikọ nke uru mba ụwa nke US dollar na United States maka oge M2 ruo oge ikpeazụ - oge ikpeazụ nke usoro ego nke United States Usoro ndozi. Mmekọrịta na-adịchaghị mkpa n'etiti Index US dollar (y, paragraf) na M2 ego nchịkọta na United States (X, Billion US dollar). A na-arụ ọrụ nke otu ịkwagharị Lined lined: y = 118.68-0.0013 ∙ x. Rxy = -0,0,774 Courefration bụ njikọ siri ike na-adịghị mma. Coefficity exy = -0.234 bu ihe na adighi ike. Njehie dị ka = 1.4% - n'ime oke nkịtị. Nnyocha nke Farro Ffact = 23.8 karịrị FTAB = 4.49 - nha nha anya (Isiokwu 3).
Ya mere, na oge dị mkpirikpi, njikọ dị n'etiti ndeksi US dollar na usoro ihe ngosi nke US Federal Reserve gosipụtara na-ekwupụta. Ya mere, n'oge oge dị mkpirikpi nke July 2019 - Jenụwarị 2021, mmekọrịta na ntụgharị dị n'etiti Index US (y, paragraf) na ọmụrụ nwa nke US Federal Reserve (X,%). A na-arụ otu ihe eji arụ ọrụ na-arụ ọrụ: y = 93.52 + 2.3843 ∙ x. Coffiefration bụ RXY = 0.635 - njikọ dị ike. Coefficity exy = 0.025 na-esighi ike na ihe. Njehie dị ka = 1.8% - n'ime oke nkịtị. Nchịkọta Fank's FFact = 11.5 ọzọ Ftab = 4.45 - Ntachi ahụ dị oke mkpa (Isiokwu 4).
N'oge dị mkpirikpi oge July 20120, njikọ nke uru nke mba ụwa nke US dollar na ọnụego dị irè maka ego gọọmentị etiti nke usoro Federal Reserve System nke US. Emebela usoro mmezi n'etiti Index US (y, paragraf) na ọnụahịa dị irè maka ego gọọmentị etiti nke usoro Federal Reserve (X, mmasị kwa afọ). A na-arụ otu ihe eji arụ ọrụ na-arụ ọrụ: y = 93.99 + 2,1315 ∙ x. Cocefication na-enweghị isi = 0,615 bụ njikọ siri ike. Coefficity exy = 0.023 bu ihe na-esighi ike. Njehie dị ka = 1.8% - n'ime oke nkịtị. Nchịkọta Fank FFact FFact = 9.8 dị elu karịa Ftab = 4.49 - njigide a dị oke mkpa (Isiokwu 5).
Usoro a na-agbakọ ọnụ ọgụgụ dị egwu nke ọnụego nchekwa nke United Federal Reserve nke United States na United States kwere ka amụma ndị a na-amụ ihe. Amụma ahụ mere ka o kwe omume ịchọpụta usoro ihe ndị a n'oge oge usoro ego nke United States US Reserve: 1) Na ntinye obere oge, US dollar dị elu; Ihe mgbaru ọsọ ahụ nwere mmasị na sistemụ nchekwa nke United States nwere mmetụta dị ukwuu na ndenye US dollar karịa maka ego gọọmentị etiti nke usoro Federal Reserves; 2) N'ime ogologo oge, US dollar dị na ọkwa dị ala; Ihe mgbaru ọsọ ahụ nwere mmasị na ọnụego dị irè maka ego gọọmentị etiti nke usoro nchekwa nchekwa US US US na-enye otu mmetụta na Index US Dollar; 3) N'ime mkpụmkpụ oge na ogologo oge enwere ike dị ala nke Index US dollar, dabere na iwu ego nke ụlọ nchekwa Federal US; 4) Mmetụta nke usoro ego nke United States na Index US dollar na US dollar nwere ọmụrụ nwa na ego enyemaka; Nke mere na a na-ebelata ihe ruru 60, ihe ruru 60, ngalaba M2 kwesịrị ịbawanye $ 4,3945 ijeri ya kwesịrị ibelata -14%, n'ezie, ọ bụ adịghị mma (ọgụgụ 4) .
N'ihi ya, ugbu a, mmetụta nke usoro ego nke usoro Federal Reserve nke United States na-amachighị Index US na-enweghị anya na echiche ogologo oge nwere ike belata ndeksi US dollar. Ndabere dị ukwuu na uru mba ụwa nke US dollar nwere ike ịnye ngwaọrụ ndị ọzọ maka iwu akụ na ụba na ọnọdụ ọjọọ na akụ na ụba United States.
Tenkovskaya L.I., onye ndoro-ndoro ochichi nke sayensi, Prọfesọ
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