Lavxias sawv cev rau ib qho kev hem thawj rau txhua tus tswv cuab Nato, xav txog hauv cov koom haum Nato, tab sis Tebchaws Asmeskas npaj siab yuam kom nws "teb rau kev nqis tes ua reckless thiab txhoj puab heev." Lub Ob Hlis 16, NATO Secretary General General Stolteberg thiab tau hais tias txhua lub koom haum tau npaj txhij rau kev sib tw nrog Russia. Qhov tsis muaj qab hau tsis yog txwv rau cov lus hais - lub Alliance tau nce qib tub rog ntawm Lavxias teb. Cov kev taw qhia tseem ceeb tib lub sijhawm yog Eastern Europe: Lub tebchaws Baltic tau tshaj tawm lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua siab zoo "Lavxias teb siab". Yuav ua li cas NATO yuav mus "Cheeb Tsam" Thaj Av, txaus siab rau cov kev tshawb fawb ntawm Baltic Discolitical thiab cov cheeb tsam hauv cheeb tsam ntawm Baltic tsoomfwv tsoomfwv qib siab. I.kanta Yuri zverev.
Cov lus hais tias Russia tab tom npaj thiab ntawm ib rooj plaub yooj yim yuav ua rau lawv muaj kev sib ntaus sib tua thiab, yog tias nws, ntshai tsam tsov rog nuclear, kev sib tsoo thiab tsis muaj Kev cuam tshuam, yog qhov chaw nyob rau hauv New Western prestern propaganda rhetoric thiab tau ua haujlwm ua ib tus axiom uas tsis tas yuav muaj pov thawj. Kev npaj me ntsis nws yog tom qab kev saws me nyuam Lithuania, Latvia thiab Estonia thiab Estonia Alliance thaum xyoo 2014 tom qab rov qab mus rau Lavxias thiab Supastopol.
Qhov xwm txheej no, uas yog qhov tseeb ncaj qha ntawm kev tshoov siab rau peb thiab EU ntawm lub xeev reetic nyob rau hauv Kiev hauv Kiev, thiab nyob rau hauv cov neeg phem, tsis muaj dab tsi hauv Baltic cheeb tsam tsis tau hloov. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov laj thawj yooj yim tau pom tias muaj zog dua thiab nthuav dav ua tub rog ntawm Tebchaws Meskas thiab Nato nyob ntawd. Cov thawj coj ntawm Baltic cov teb chaws haus "Karaul! Peb tab tom tawm tsam! ", Thiab Nato tau coj los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas, tau kawg, tam sim ntawd" tuaj rau txoj kev cawm. " Russia, txawm li cas los xij, tsis tshwm sim ntawm kev ua rog, thiab cov pov thawj ntawm Lavxias tub rog siab rau Baltic States tau yuav tsum nqus cov ntiv tes.
Tab sis cov ntaub ntawv ua tiav, thiab Baltic cheeb tsam los ntawm Asmeskas cov cheeb tsam ntawm Tebchaws Russia nrog cov neeg nyob sib ze ntawm "All tawm tsam Russia" Thiab nyob rau hauv "hmoov thoob ntawm teb chaws Europe" yog La Balkans ntawm pib ntawm lub xyoo pua xeem.
Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej, qhov teeb meem ntawm kev npaj kev tiv thaiv ntawm Baltic States los ntawm "los ua ib qho ntawm cov ncauj lus nrov nrov hauv Western cov tub rog hauv lub zej zog piv rau Nato Cov. Nws yog tseeb tias qhov kev npaj ua tiag tiag Nato yog qhov zais cia [1], thiab nws yuav coj txawv txawv kom cia siab tias yuav muaj lwm yam. Txawm li cas los xij, cov tswv yim suab qhib siab dawb (los ntawm qhov uas kuv tau txiav txim siab tsuas yog muab qee lub tswv yim ntawm lub tebchaws tshaj tawm), nws zoo li tseem yuav muaj qee lub Tebchaws Asmeskas thiab Nato yuav ua yeeb yam hauv Baltic States Thiab cov tub rog twg thiab riam phom ntawm lub Alliance yuav ntxiv rau hauv cov xeev (nrog rau hauv Poland). Cov khoom tau mob siab rau qhov no, thawj ntu ntawm uas yog sawv cev los ntawm koj mloog.
Daim Ntawv Tshaj Qhia Rand Tuam Txhab
Nyob rau lub caij ntuj sov ntawm 2014 thiab lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav xyoo 2015, lub ntiaj teb Feed American "Wanta Firmation" Rand Corporation (Board Games Vem) ntawm Lavxias teb sab. Cov txiaj ntsig tau poob siab rau NATO: Hauv qhov xwm txheej, Lavxias teb sab tub rog mus txog lub suburbs ntawm Riga thiab (lossis) Tallinn 36-60 teev tom qab pib ua haujlwm [2]. Cov kev ua si tub rog tau paub meej tias yav tas los tsis muaj zog ntawm cov tub rog ntawm Baltic States: tsis muaj kev tiv thaiv huab cua thiab tsis muaj kev tiv thaiv huab cua rau siv cov hom phiaj ntawm qhov siab. Qhov xaus tau xaus lus tias yuav tiv thaiv kev txhim kho NATO NATO cov xwm txheej rau kev txhawb nqa huab cua, nrog rau cov khoom siv hluav taws kub, muaj kev tiv thaiv huab cua thiab lwm cov chav pab txhawb.Thiab tsis yog tag nrho cov rog no, raws li cov sau phau ntawv ntawm daim ntawv tshaj tawm, yuav tsum tau ua tiav tiav. Yog li, thaum muaj kev hem thawj, tsawg kawg yog rau ib lub lim tiam, NATO muaj sijhawm hloov cov huab cua ntawm cov neeg Asmeskas thiab 822nd Airborne Brigision ntawm North Carolina, raws li zoo ib yam li Cov tub rog qhov chaw ntawm lwm lub teb chaws Nato, suav nrog kev teb chaws thiab Fabkis. Lub xov tooj txawb hluav taws xob tiv thaiv hluav taws tuaj yeem muab cov avusiat aviation (nyoob hoom qav taub) US Bornade nyob hauv Tebchaws Yelemees. Ib qho ntxiv, cov khoom hnyav nrog cov tsheb uas xav tau. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau pom zoo ntau dua: txhawm rau tas li yog ua raws cov phooj ywg zoo thiab cov txheej txheem ntawm Baltic hauv Baltic lub teb chaws; Muab cov ntaub ntawv ua ntej ntawm riam phom thiab khoom siv hauv tebchaws Poland, lub tebchaws Baltic lossis hauv Tebchaws Yelemees, thiab thaj chaw ntawm tus kheej yuav hloov mus rau saum huab cua ntawm kev kub ntxhov ntawm kev kub ntxhov; Vam khom rau ntawm lub teb ib puag ncig lossis siv qee qhov sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov txheej txheem saum toj no.
Nws yuav tsum tau hais tias cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev tshawb fawb ntawm Rand Corporation tau muaj kev thuam txaus ntshai. Yog li, piv txwv li, cov neeg Latin sau Bens Lankovskis hauv lub Peb Hlis 2016 tau sau tseg tias qhov xwm txheej tsis muaj kev cia siab raws li qhia hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm. Nws tau taw qhia tias thaum ua qauv tsis tau coj mus rau hauv cov tub rog lossis tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov tub rog Lavxias, uas yuav qeeb qeeb ntawm cov av nkos, uas muaj ntau cov pas dej, hav zoov thiab dej ntws, kev siv tau ntawm kev siv txhua yam lub peev xwm ntawm lub Alliant (thiab tsis yog nyob ze ntawm cov tub rog sab hnub tuaj (hauv Rand tub rog ua si, nws tsis tau cuam tshuam hauv kev tsis sib haum xeeb hauv kev ua tub rog, ntxiv, kev ua tub rog hauv Lithuania thiab ib ncig ntawm cheeb tsam Kaliningrad nyob rau hauv dav dav cov qauv tsis tau txiav txim siab) thiab lwm yam.
Tus kws sau ntawv tau sau tias Russia tsis tau npaj rau Blitzkrig tawm tsam lub teb chaws Baltic, thiab txawm hais tias lawv pom cov tub rog Lavxias yuav tsis yooj yim thiab tsis mob yog tias Nato yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam tag nrho cov ua tau Cov chaw ua tub rog ntawm nws qhov kev pov tseg.
Tab sis, thaj, ua haujlwm ntawm RAND Corporation tsis yog nyob rau hauv ib lub hom phiaj kev txheeb xyuas cov tub rog (tawm hauv qab lub hom phiaj tsis tau mus), tab sis kom ntshai ib tug pej xeem ntau ntawm cov duab xav txog Kev tso tsheb hlau luam Lavxias hauv lub nroog ntawm lub cev ntawm riga lossis teminn 36-60 teev tom qab pib ua tub. Thiab yog li qhov no tsis tshwm sim, thov kom muaj xya ntxiv ntxiv rau cov keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm Asmeskas cov nyiaj txiag thiab nao pob nyiaj, tshaj li tom qab ntawd nyob rau hauv lub aggregregate ntawm $ 1 trillion. Tab sis, raws li lawv hais, qab los los thaum noj thiab lich teeb meem - thaum pib.
Daim ntawv qhia "sau Baltic Band Nato"
Nyob rau hauv lub Tsib Hlis 2016, lub chaw tiv thaiv thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev nyab xeeb chaw (IMDs) Tallinn, Estonia luam tawm tsab ntawv "sau Baltic Nato pob". Nws cov kws sau ntawv tau American Retiring Wesley Clark (Wesley K. Clark), lub qub Nato Tus Thawj Coj Tshaj Tawm hauv Tebchaws Europe (USA); Jüri Luik, Tus Thawj Coj ntawm International Wortense thiab Chaw Ruaj Ntseg (Estonia) [3]; Hermansky Ramms Ramms Ramms (Egon Ramms), tus thawj coj qub ntawm United Armed rog ntawm NATO hauv BRYNSUM; Sir Ricreff (Richard Shirreff), tus qub deputy tus thawj coj ntawm Nato United Armed Force hauv Tebchaws Europe (DSaceur). Lawv tau muaj ntau txaus thiab muaj txiaj ntsig Nato tub rog sib tham hauv Baltic lub teb chaws, ntseeg tias qhov no yog tib txoj kev uas lav txog kev nyab xeeb hauv lub ntsej muag [4] kev hem thawj los ntawm Russia. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws tau sau tseg tias yog koj tuaj yeem lav tias muaj kev sib cav sib ceg ntawm cov qauv ntawm cov qauv ntawm ib qho (kev sib hloov lossis tas mus li) yuav tsum tsis txhob mus rau tom ntej.
Raws li cov sau phau ntawv no, nws yuav zoo kawg nkaus ntawm kev xa tawm ntawm Nato Battaltions mus ntxiv rau hauv txhua lub teb chaws Baltic ntawm ib lub tebchaws Baltic ntawm ib NATO BRIGADE. Ib qho ntxiv, nws tau pom zoo kom nce thiab cov tub rog Asmeskas tsawg kawg yog rau ib pawg dav dav hauv txhua lub teb chaws Baltic.
Nws tseem raug npaj siab yuav rov ua dua tshiab rau Baltic lub teb chaws ntawm kev ua haujlwm sib hloov, qee cov neeg Asmeskas cov tub rog Asmeskas cov tub rog hauv hiav txwv dub. Nws tau sau tseg tias twb tau nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov ntawm cov rog ntawm kev ua haujlwm tshwj xeeb hauv kev ua haujlwm hauv Baltic lub teb chaws thiab thim rov qab ntawm kev nkag thiab siv "(A2 / Ad), nrog rau lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev kuaj pom tias Russia, raws li tau hais, tuaj yeem sim ua tsis tau raws li cov nyom ntawm "cov tub rog qev" lossis "cov tub rog qev".
Cov Patrol Huab Cua Patrol Lub Hom Phiaj Balctic Aperand Dav hlau uas muaj lub hom phiaj ntawm kev tiv thaiv Airspace nrog kev tso ua ke ntawm qee cov zog ntxiv thiab txhais tau tias hauv Peacetime. Lub hiav txwv tau hais kom nce lub xub ntiag ntawm pawg Naval hauv Baltic Hiav Txwv (SNF). Cov pab pawg no tau tsim nyog suav nrog cov nkoj muaj peev xwm thov cov khoom siv ntev ntev, nrog rau kev tiv thaiv tus kheej thiab kev sib tham hauv Lavxias teb sab hauv Kaliningrad cheeb tsam.
Ntxiv dag zog rau kev nce qib muaj NATO hauv Baltic States
Kev tshaj tawm ntawm cov kev kawm Rand kev kawm thiab tus naj npawb ntawm cov kev hais tsis meej, tsab xov xwm, tshooj 5 ntawm North Atlantic Filey yuav raug tsim [5 ] coj mus rau qhov tseeb tias ntawm NATO Qhov Rooj Sib Tham hauv Warsaw hauv Lithuania, Latvia, Estan, Estlooting muaj ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntau (poland. Lub sij hawm ntawm cov nyob ntawm battalion ntaus pawg pawg hauv tebchaws Poland thiab Baltic xeev tsis muaj txwv nyob rau lub sijhawm. Battaltions (pab pawg sib ntaus sib tua ntawm cov txheej txheem NATO), xa tawm ntawm Lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Plaub Hlis Ntuj (hauv tebchaws Lithuanes (hauv Latvania (hauv Latvia) thiab Tebchaws Askiv (hauv Estonia).
Raws li Lub Kaum Hli 2020, tag nrho cov ntawm cov pawg sib ntaus sib tua ntawm cov pawg sib ntaus sib tua ntawm NATO hauv Baltic lub teb chaws yog 3768 tus neeg. Cov pab pawg nyob hauv Baltic xeev thiab Poland yog raug rau NATO North-East multinational sib faib (MND-ne) hauv lub nroog Polish ntawm Elblag. Lub xub ntiag ntawm cov pab pawg sib tw yog npaj, ua ntej ntawm txhua yam, kom ua rau lawv lub teb chaws Baltic, tias lawv cov teb chaws muaj nyob rau hauv kev tiv thaiv Nato, thiab Thib Ob, kom xa cov paib sib xws ntawm Russia.
Hauv cov ntsiab lus, servicemen ntawm pab pawg ua raws li hom neeg raug txhom. Yog tias kev nres ncaj qha tshwm sim ntawm American, German, Canadian, Askiv thiab lwm tus servicemen los ntawm Alliance cov tub rog teb raws li tsab xov xwm 5 ntawm North Atlantic Filey.
Txawm li cas los xij, kev pab nyob rau hauv Baltic States ntawm pawg sib ntaus sib tua ntawm kev txhawb nqa cov teeb meem ntawm Nato, raws li cov kev ua tub rog ntawm cov neeg muaj kev sib cav sib ceg "nyob rau tib lub sijhawm tau tshaj tawm Yuav luag raws li tsis muaj kev hloov ntawm lub caij). Kev ntaus yeej muaj peev xwm ntawm Nato Battaltions tau thiab tseem muaj txwv. Lawv tuaj yeem tiv thaiv lawv tus kheej, muaj qee lub peev xwm ua pov thawj, thiab tseem muaj cov kev tiv thaiv huab cua thiab (hauv cov nplai ntawm cov huab cua) artillery. Raws li nws tau sau rau Dr. Ulrich Kün los ntawm Vienna Center los ntawm Vienna Center ntawm VienNiet) - Cov zog hluav taws xob "(ua haujlwm tau ua rau muaj kev sib tw ntawm cov Tiv thaiv cov tog los rau armed teb rau yav tom ntej kev ua phem. Thaum muaj kev tawm tsam, lawv yuav tsum qeeb txoj kev nce qib ntawm cov neeg tsim txom, yeej lub sijhawm kom muaj kev tsim kho thiab hloov cov rog ntxiv rau cov kev sib zog. Yog li, kom ua nyob rau hauv Baltic States tsis muaj NATO sib txuas ua ke nrog kev ua tiav txaus, nws yuav tsis muaj tseeb.
Hais txog yuav ua li cas kev sib tham txuas ntxiv mus ua tub rog nyob rau ntawm Tebchaws Meskas thiab Nato nyob rau hauv Baltic State tom qab tso rau Nato Battalions - hauv ntu thib ob ntawm cov khoom.
Yuri Zverev, tus neeg sib tw ntawm thaj chaw kawm ntawv ntawm lub chaw rau Geopolitical lub koom haum ntawm thaj tsam Baltic Discolitical thiab cov cheeb tsam ntawm cov cheeb tsam ntawm Baltic tsoomfwv tsoomfwv qib siab. Immanuel Kanta
[1] Lub sijhawm kawg npaj rau kev tiv thaiv ntawm Poland thiab Baltic lub teb chaws, raws li tau tshaj tawm, tau qhia los ntawm Nato nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov Lub Xya hli ntuj 2020.
[2] Vim qee qhov laj thawj, Lithuania, Belarus thiab Kaliningrad cheeb tsam tseem nyob sab nraud kev sim. Cov kev tawm tsam tau raug coj tsuas yog nyob rau Estonia thiab Latvia los ntawm thaj chaw tseem ceeb ntawm Russia. Rau cov ntawv tshaj tawm no tau thuam nyob rau hauv Asmeskas tub rog voj voog.
[3] Tam sim no Estonian Kws Muaj Txuj Ci Minister. Ua ntej ntawd, tus ncej ntawm tus thawj coj ntawm cov haujlwm txawv teb chaws tau muaj peb zaug thiab yog tus sawv cev tus sawv cev mus tas li NATO.
[4] Kev hem thawj rau kev siv cov pa (tsis yog lub nuclele) riam phom.
[5] Cov thawj coj ntawm Baltic lub teb chaws ntshai tsam tias thaum muaj tsov rog nrog Alllantic Alliance, "tuag rau Narva" thiab kev tswj hwm ntawm cov xeev no yuav Tawm hauv lub tawv tsis muaj kev txhawb nqa tub rog, txawm tias lawv cov tswv cuab hauv NATO.
[6] Nrog kev hloov pauv ntawm kev sib cais hauv cov kev sib ntaus sib tua txhua rau lub hlis.