A takaice bayanin: Kasuwancin Amurka ya dawo aiki. Dukiyar haɗari ta kasance mai tsayi; Da ake samu na shaidu na dogon lokaci na daya ne daga cikin mahimman alamomi na cigaban kasashe na duniya - kafin karshen mako uku na gida ya kai sabon makarantar simxima a kowane zagaye. A China, hutu, wanda zai ƙare ne kawai ranar Alhamis. Haɗin UsdJycy ya ɗaga tare da dawowar, wanda zai ci gaba da yin aiki azaman mai nuna alama.
Jigilar Kasuwancin Gida: Abincin Rarraba
Kasuwancin da alama suna a cikin hanyoyin sadarwa. An bayyana yanayin halin yanzu a cikin 'yan kwanannan an bayyana shi a cikin Subcaster Kira Subcaster. A cikin fitowar ta yau, na kalli manyan manyan masana'antu uku na Motoci kuma sun fada game da abin da yanayi ke kama da abin da kasuwa yake gani yanzu. Kadai ɗaya a Janar, wannan lamari mai kama da shine ƙarshen ƙarshen kwata na uku, lokacin da yanayin kuɗi ya yi kyau, amma ma'aunin abubuwan haɗin ya girma, da kuma ma'aunin Fed ya ragu. Amma wannan kawai a cikin sharuddan gabaɗaya, yanzu dala ta Amurka tana raunana, kuma Fed ba ta shirin canza shugabanci ba, duk da ci gaban shekara, musamman (tun farkon shekara) a ƙarshen ƙarshen na kwana.
Na riga na bayyana yanayin abin tsoro na ƙarin faɗuwar USD tare da ƙaruwa a cikin yawan shaidu. Ya zuwa yanzu, duk da haka, yana da wuri don magana game da haɓaka mai ƙarfi a cikin riba (mafi mahimmanci, jigon canji mai shekaru 10 ne mai tsayi na 1.50% maimakon 1.50% na na yanzu 1.24%), kuma game da hanzarta raguwa a cikin dala. Koyaya, a yanzu ina biyan canje-canje a cikin dawo da hankali fiye da kowane mai nuna alama. Kula da jadawalin USDJY, wanda ya shafi ya koma Amurka; Yawan amfanin gona na dogon bangarorin Japan ya tashi mai mahimmanci ƙasa, don haka fadada yaduwar.
Amma game da canje-canje na gaba a cikin dawowar Amurka, za a rinjayi bayanan tattalin arziki na tattalin arziki, da kuma alamu da tiriliyan 1.5 ne daga Fed. Gobe maraice za a buga mintuna na taron FomC. Wataƙila, ba zai haifar da babban amsawa ba, tun lokacin da aka ƙi gudanar da Fed na don neman rage matakan da suke gudana - kuma wannan ra'ayin ya kasance mai ban dariya, wanda aka ba da sikirin da ke tsammanin na Trezeris a cikin watanni 12 masu zuwa . Wannan sikelin yana da girma sosai fiye da farashin adadi da kuma yiwuwar adana kuɗi. Tambayar wanda zai sayi sabon Trezeris bayan kwata na biyu shine mafi m ga watanni na gaba watanni bayan tambaya game da ragin maido da Amurka da sauran tattalin arziki bayan alurar riga kafi. A ƙarshen, ba wanda zai yi, sai dai fãtun. Amma menene matakin hauhawar farashin kaya, rashin aikin yi, yanayin haɗari da samar da haɗin kai? Wannan abu mai ban sha'awa ne ga sakin Macrovoices tare da Julian Brigden daga abokan MI2.
Jadawalin: Usdjpy - yana ba da ƙararrawa don dala "bears" ko dafa shi a cikin ruwan 'ya'yan itace?
Halin da aka haɗa na USDJY na iya zama mai mahimmanci kamar yadda muke zato, amma yanayin fasaha a cikinsa yana da matukar ban sha'awa: ya sake tashi saboda haɓakar cinikin Amurka ta 200, a sarari saboda haɓakar cinikin Amurka tun farkon shekara . Za mu ci gaba da jira don alamun nasara (a matsayin riba na ci gaba da girma), kuma za mu kuma yi ƙoƙarin ƙara wannan yanayin ko kuma wannan yanayin yana iyakance ga wannan halin da ake ciki a cikin kasuwar musayar ƙasashen waje. Matsayin da ake tsammanin rashin sha'awar watanni uku har yanzu yana da ƙasa sosai, kusan 6.0%, kodayake sabbin abubuwan da abubuwan da suka faru sun jing kadan.
Source: Saxo Group
ɓacewarawa
Yatsa a kan maballin a Turkiyya? Kasuwar duniya ta isa ga duk abin da "riba" Sauti, da kuma Rand Rand) na Afirka ta Kudu: fiye da 15% gyara don cari game da USD game da USD, ciki har da sama da 9% a cikin watan da ya gabata. Yanzu da biyu suka saukar da kasa da mahimmancin matakin 7.00, wanda aka yi aiki da shi a bara, ba zai warware bankin ranar Alhamis ko kuma aƙalla gano irin wannan niyyar ba? Za'a iya ɗaukar irin wannan ƙimar girma na dogon lokaci.
Pound na Sterling ya ci gaba da yin zanga-zangar, da GBPUSD ya kusanci 1.4000. Pound yana dawo da fa'idodi masu yawa daga halin da ake ciki na yanzu: EURGBP akan sabon m, kuma Gbpusd bai yi nisa da 1.4000; Idan dollar ta ci gaba da raunana, to, wannan biyun na iya kaiwa 1,4200, kuma a sama. Kamar yadda na fada a farko, alamomin na asali ga Burtaniya da kuma kasashe biyu suna da babban tasirin hauhawar kasuwanci a cikin debe. Koyaya, suna da matsayi daban-daban na farawa: GBP ta fito daga cikin mawuyacin takalmin, kuma USD ya kasance daga dogon lokaci mai girma. The laban yana cikin kyakkyawan yanayi, amma a cikin watanni masu zuwa zan bi ainihin ci gaba don sanin lokacin da digo ɗinsu zasu lalata da kudaden.
Kasar Sin tana cikin harin a Amurka a fagen karnukan duniya: a safiyar nan da ke da labarin (an buga wannan labarin) a cikin hanyoyin da ba a ambata ba, da tsare-tsaren Sin suna nufin tasirin fitarwa na Wadannan abubuwan sunadarai akan samar da makamai masu yawa a Amurka. Wannan wata alama ce ta haɗarin haɗarin Cacar Cacarancin Cacar Cacarancin Cacar tsakanin ƙasashe biyu, alama ce ta rikicewar dangantakar tattalin arziki. The "Sayi dabarun" dabarun da aka gabatar da "karkatar da hankali" nuna a cikin wannan shugabanci, kuma ku zama sigina na hauhawar farashin kaya. A tsawon lokaci, biyan kuɗi a cikin Amurka dole ne ya dakatar da juyawa zuwa siyan kayayyaki da aka shigo da shi, amma tabbas ba yanzu ba.
Sauran Rago da CN1: Dukkanin "ƙananan" Cats ɗinku G10 da ke nufin Maxira don wasan kwaikwayo na Amurka, na farko ya zama kambi na Yaren mutanen Norway. Kamar yadda aka ambata, halin da aka watsa ta refationse bai yi kyau sosai ga Yuro ba, kuma Ienu yana da haɓaka haɓaka da farashin kayan ƙasa. Wani muhimmin matsayi wanda ke nuna USD shine kasuwar Sinanci da kuma USDCNy - ba ta aiki har zuwa lokacin da Yuan Usdcnh a jiya ya nuna sabon ƙaramin tsari, kodayake na dare tare da ɗan lokaci kaɗan.
Maballin kalanda mai zuwa na kalan tattalin arziki (lokacin dukkan abubuwan da suka faru an nuna ta hanyar Greenwich::
- 13:30 - Amurka, bayyanar da yanayin kasuwanci don samarwa a New York don Fabrairu
- 17:30 - Magana ta E. George daga Fed (wanda ba a cikin-Corrosivive Fomc)
- 18:00 - Jawabin R. Kaplan daga Fed (Ba Memba na Column Fomc ba)
- 20:00 - Jawabin M. Dali daga ECB (Member Member Fomc)
- 23:50 - Japan Balance Rahoton Kasuwanci
- 01:00 - Jawabin K. Kent daga Bankin Reserve na Ostiraliya
John Hardy, Main Dateungiyar Kategist Bank Saxo Bank
Karanta abubuwan asali na asali akan: zuba jari.com