Rasha tana wakiltar barazana ga dukkan membobin NATO, sai a yi la'akari da Pentagon, amma Amurka ta yi niyyar tilasta shi su "amsa rashin daidaito da m ayyuka." A ranar 16 ga Fabrairu, Sakatare janar Stoltenberg kuma ta ce da cewa a duk cewa kungiyar ta shirya don adawa da Rasha. Baƙon abu ba shi da iyaka ga bayyananniyar magana - Alliance ta haɓaka kasancewar haɗin kai a kan iyakokin Rasha. Jagorar mabuɗin a lokaci guda ita ce Gabashin Turai: Kasashen Baltic, sun ayyana babban burin ta'addancin "Rasha da rikici". Yadda Nato zata "kare Nato ta" kare "yankin, ta ji godiya ga Babban Cibiyar Nazarin Gidajen Jihar Baltic da Na Jami'ar Tarayya. I.Kanta Yuri Zvetev.
Bayanin cewa Rasha na shirya kuma a wani yanayi mai dacewa zai aiwatar da zalunci ga Baltic jihohi domin ya hada da su a cikin yakin nukiliya, idan ta, ta hanyar tsoron yakin nukiliya, rauni kuma baya Compunasa, wuri ne gama gari a cikin kayan adon yalwa na zamani kuma ya zama mai haske wanda ba ya buƙatar kowane shaida. Dan kadan faduwa da shi bayan da aka gabatar da karar Lithuania, Latvia da Estonia na Arewa Atlantik a cikin 2004, wannan yada wannan yada wani karfi tun daga shekarar 2014 bayan ya dawo Rasha Crimea da Sevastopol.
Wannan taron, wanda ya kasance sakamakon sakamakon da aka yi wahayi zuwa gare mu da EU na juyin mulkin jihar a Kiev, kuma ba shi da alaƙa da Baltic, ba komai a yankin Baltic ba ya canzawa. Duk da haka, an gano wani dalili da ya dace don karfafa gwiwa da fadada kasancewar sojojin Amurka da nato a can. Jagoran kasashen Baltic ya warware "Karaul! Muna gab da kai hari! ", Kuma Amurka ta jagoranta NATO ta Amurka, tabbas, nan da nan" ya zo ga ceto. Rasha, duk da haka, bai bayyana a kan yakin ba, da kuma shaidar karawar soja na Rasha a jihohin Baltic ta zama dole su tsotse a zahiri daga yatsa.
Amma an yi shari'ar, kuma yankin Baltic da outeded ya yi a hankali ya juya daga daya daga cikin manyan yankuna na Turai tare da hadin gwiwar " Kuma a cikin "foda barel na Turai" A la Balkans na farkon karni na karshe.
A cikin shekaru masu zuwa, batun shirya tsaron asalin Baltic daga "mamayar Rashanci" (wanda namiji bai tambaya ba kuma ba a saka ɗaya daga cikin manyan batutuwan soja dangane da mai ƙwararren masifa na yamma . A bayyane yake cewa shirin NATOIe na gaske ne asirin [1], kuma baƙon da zai sa zuciya in ba haka ba. Koyaya, shawarwarin yana da sauti a bayyane (wanda na yi la'akari da mafi inganci saboda iyakance mai iyaka), da alama har yanzu za a ba da labarin yadda Amurka ta kasance ba ta kasance a cikin jihohin Baltic Kuma waɗanne dakaru da makaman kibanta na iya bayyana sosai a cikin wadannan jihohin (da kuma a makwabta na Poland). Kayan da aka sadaukar da wannan, kashi na farko wanda ya wakilci ta hankalinku.
Rahoton Rand Corporation
A lokacin bazara na 2014 kuma a lokacin bazara na 2015, kamfanin da aka yi tunani "na duniya" Rand California, wasanni a taswira) na mamayar Rasha na ƙasashe Baltic ƙasashe. Sakamakon yana jin daɗin NATO: A cikin wannan yanayin, sojojin Rasha sun cimma matsasunsu da (ko) Tallinn 36-60 bayan farkon tashin hankali [2]. Wasannin Soja sun tabbatar da kasawar da sojojin kasashen Baltic: karancin lamba, karancin manyan motocin da kuma rashin karfin karen iska don amfani da kwallaye a babban tsawo. Kammalawa ya kammala da cewa domin ya hana wannan ci gaban abubuwan da suka faru na NATO zuwa kungiyoyi bakwai a kasashen Baltic, wanda ya inganta, kariya ta jirgin sama da sauran rukunin tallafi.Kuma ba duk waɗannan sojojin, bisa ga marubutan rahoton, yakamata ya ci gaba bisa tushen. Don haka, lokacin da ake barazanar barazana, aƙalla har mako guda, Nato tana da lokaci don canja wurin iska zuwa yankin Balantar da Areword Brigade daga Arewacin Carolina, har ma da haka Alamu na soja daga ƙasashen NATO, ciki har da Burtaniya da Faransa. Wani tanki na tanki na wayar hannu zai iya samar da jirgin sama na jirgin sama (Helikofta) Brigade dangane da Jamus. Bugu da kari, ana bukatar sassan fulogi. Rahoton ya ba da shawarar zaɓuɓɓukan da yawa: a koyaushe ba tare da cikakken sandar da fasaha da dabarun Brigade a cikin ƙasashen Baltic; Samar da ci gaban ma'aikatan makamai da kayan aiki a Poland, kasashen Baltic ko a Jamus, kuma yankin na sirri zai canja wuri zuwa iska a farkon mataki na rikicin; Dogaro da yanayin juyayi ko amfani da wasu haɗi na hanyoyin da ke sama.
Dole ne a ce sakamakon binciken na Binciken Rand Kamfanin yana da isasshen zargi. Don haka, alal misali, marubucin Lateko ya lura da Latkovskis a cikin Maris 2016 ya lura cewa lamarin ba haka ba ne wanda aka nuna a cikin rahoton. Ya nuna cewa a lokacin da ba a la'akari da samfurin tallan ko kuma isasshen dalilai kamar dabarun sojojin Rasha ba, inda tafki da aka yi katako, faduwa da Kogiloli, da yiwuwar amfani da duk abin da ya dace da ikon ƙaddamar da jirgin sama (kuma ba wai kawai jirgin sama ba ne, an tura kusa da yankin Baltic a gabashin Turai na sojojin Poland (a wasannin soja na Rand, bai yi ba Tsoma a rikici, haka ma, hakanan, a kan Lithuania da kewayen Kaliningrad a Janar Motocin ba a la'akari da samfurin ba) da sauransu.
Marubucin ya rubuta cewa Rasha ba a shirye nake ba don yin haske da ƙasashen Baltic, kuma duk da cewa ba tare da karfafa gwiwa ba, kodayake ba su da sauki da rashin jin daɗi idan Nato ta kara da dukkaninsu albarkatun soja a wurinsa.
Amma, a fili, aikin Rand Kamfanin ba a cikin bincike na soja ba (barin bayan baka na jihohin da Rasha ba zai ci gaba ba, amma don tsoratar da jama'a mai hangen nesa na Tankunan Rasha a cikin karkara na Rigo ko Tallinn 36-60 bayan farkon tashin. Kuma saboda wannan ba ta faru ba, nema ƙarin cin zarafin guda bakwai tare da karfafa gwiwa na 2.7 da ya kamata ya yi a bango na Makaranta na Amurka da NATO, sun wuce a tara kudin $ 1 tiriliyan 1. Amma, kamar yadda suke faɗi, ci yana faruwa yayin cin abinci da LICh matsala - farkon.
Bayar da rahoto "cike gurbin Baltic Band Nato"
A watan Mayun 2016, Tsaro na Tsaro Tsaro (ICDs) Tallinn, Estonia) ya buga rahoto "cike gurbin Baltic Nato Ball". Westers Wesley Wesley Clark (Wesley K. Clark), tsohon kwamandan kungiyar Nato ta Turai (SA'AU); Jüri Luik, darektan tsaron kasa da kasa (3]; Hermansky Ramms Ramms (Egon Rakphs), tsohon kwamandan rundunar sojojin United makamai na NATO a Brrynsum; Sir Richard Shirreff (Richard Shirreff), tsohon mataimakin shugaban rundunar sojojin NATO United a Turai (DSaceur). Sun sami wadataccen babban sojojin Nato da ingantattu a cikin kasashen Baltic, yin imani da cewa wannan ita ce hanya daya tilo don tabbatar da amincin a fuskar al'ada [4] barazana daga Rasha. A lokaci guda, an lura da cewa idan zaku iya tabbatar da kasancewar sojojin gwagwarmaya a kan recordory, sannan mahawara game da tsarin gaban (rotational ko akai) bai kamata ya je gaba ba.
A cewar marubutan wannan rahoton, zai zama daidai da jaruntakar Nato don a fili a cikin kowane kasashen Baltic a kan Nato Brigade. Bugu da kari, an ba da shawarar karuwa da sojojin Amurka - aƙalla zuwa rukunin batattu na lokaci-lokaci a cikin kowane ƙasashen Baltic.
Hakanan an gabatar da shi don yin kwaikwayon kasashen Baltic a kan kasashen baya, wasu raka'a na dakar zuma na Amurka daga yankin Black Tekun. An lura cewa tuni a farkon matakan sojojin ayyuka na musamman (SOF) zasu taka muhimmiyar aiwatar da dukkanin ayyukan da ke cikin kasashen Baltic don kawar da samun dama da rawa "(A2 / AD), kazalika da muhimmiyar rawa wajen gano ayyukan da ke gano cewa Rasha, za su iya kokarin sake ganowa a karkashin jagorar "kore maza" ko "Sojojin haya".
An nemi Aikace-aikacen Area na Patric Baltic Baltic Baltic Baltic Baltic Baltic Paltpace na Air Paltpace tare da sanya wasu ƙarin karfi da kuma a cikin salama. An nemi tekun ya kara zama na kabilar na sojojin na Baltic a cikin teku. Wadannan rukunoni sun hada da jiragen ruwa da za su iya amfani da dadewa da dogon iyaka, da kuma suna kare kai da kuma magance yankin Rasha A2 / AD a cikin yankin Rasha.
Karfafa hadadden kasancewar NATO a cikin jihohin Baltic
Bugaukar da sakamakon binciken Rand da da yawa daga sauran rahotanni, da kuma shakku na kasashen Baltic, za a mamaye batun a arewacin Atlantic [5 ] Ya haifar da gaskiyar cewa a taron NATO a Warsaw a cikin Warsaw a watan Yuli a Lithuania da Poland, a kan Readonia [6] akan batul guda ɗaya. Lokacin hutu na kungiyoyin fama na batetalibu a Poland kuma kasashen Baltic ba su iyakance a cikin lokaci ba. Battalions (fama kungiyoyin na inganta gaban NATO), tura tsakanin watan Janairu da Afrilu 2017, a karkashin Amurka (a Poland), Jamus (a Lithuania), Canada (a Latvia) da United Kingdom (a Estonia).
Tun daga Oktoba 2020, jimlar yawan yaƙi na Nato a cikin kasashen Baltic 3768 ne. Groupsungiyoyi a cikin jihohin Baltic da Poland suna ƙarƙashin rarraba Nato-Gabas) a cikin garin Poland na Elblag. Kasancewar kungiyoyin gwagwarmaya sun yi niyya ne, da farko, Jagoran Jagoran Baltic, cewa kasashensu suna karkashin kariya ta NATO, na biyu, don gabatar da siginar Rasha.
A Yan kuma, masu ba da sabis na ƙungiyoyin gwagwarmaya a matsayin wani irin baƙi. Idan kai harin ya kai tsaye kan Amurka, Jamusanci, Cityigan Kanada da sauran 'yan kungiyar Biritaniya daga kasashen Amurka da ke cikin yarjejeniyar kungiyar Nato ta Arewacin Atlantic.
Koyaya, masauki a cikin asalin Baltic na yaƙi kungiyoyin karfafa gwiwa na kungiyar NATO, in ji masana da yawa, ba a warware matsalolin soja ba a rahoton Rand din (nan gaba "a bainar ta Rasha ba kusan kamar yadda babu makawa kamar canjin yanayi). Kayan gwagwarmayar ayyukan NATO sun kasance suna da iyaka. Zasu iya kare kansu, suna da wasu iyawar da suka kawo hannu, kuma suna da hanyar radius tsaron sama da (a karancin sikelin) manyan bindigogi. Kamar yadda ya yi dabam daga baya Dr. Ulrich Kün daga cibiyar Vienna don kwance da kuma nakasassu, waɗannan sune ake kira "Sojojin Flatch" - Sojojin Tripwire) - sojojin da ke da ikon abokin gaba, waɗanda aikinsa shine nuna alƙawarin kare jam'iyyar don amsa mai amfani ga tsokanar nan gaba. Idan akwai wani harin, dole ne su rage karbar goyon bayan mai zalunci, lashe lokacin da za a shirya kuma canja wurin karin tallafin da ya wajaba. Don haka, yin a cikin jihohin baltic ba tare da mahaɗan Nato Nato tare da isasshen amplification, ba zai zama ba da gaskiya ba.
Game da yadda tattaunawar ta ci gaba da kara kasancewa a Amurka da NATO a cikin jihohin Baltic bayan sanya wajan cewa batutuwa na NATO - a wani bangare na kayan.
Yuri Zvetev, dan takarar jama'a, babban kwararren cibiyar nazarin gefolitical na yankin Baltic na Cibiyar Jami'ar Tarayyar Baltic. Immanuel Kanta
[1] Lokaci na ƙarshe da aka shirya don kare Poland da kasashen Baltic, kamar yadda aka ruwaito, Nato ta gabatar da su a farkon Yuli 2020.
[2] Saboda wasu dalilai, Lithuania, Belarus da yankin Kaliningrad ya kasance a waje da simulation. An yi ta'addancin kawai a Estonia da Latvia daga babban yankin Rasha. Domin wannan rahoton an soki wannan rahoton a da'irorin sojan Amurka.
[3] A yanzu ministan tsaron Estoniya. Tun da farko, post na Ministan Harkokin Waje an gudanar sau uku kuma shine wakilin dindindin na Estonia zuwa NATO.
[4] barazanar amfani da makamai na al'ada (wadanda ba nukiliya) ba).
[5] Jagorancin kasashen Baltic ya ji tsoron cewa yayin da aka fara fama da Rasha, yawan masu magana da tsari na yau da kullun, "in ji su ga Narva" da kuma gudanar da wadannan jihohin zasu Barin Balts ba tare da tallafin soja ba, duk da membobinsu a NATO.
[6] Tare da canjin rarrabuwa a fagen fama a kowane watanni shida.