The editors of Bankiros.ru summarizes the outgoing year. Now we will tell about the most important financial changes that have occurred in 12 months and reflected on the economies of the country and wallets of Russians.
Coronacrisis: Beginning
Already in January, it was aware of the new unknown virus, exciting China. However, while he was far away, only the jokes on the Internet caused. Not all citizens understood the seriousness of the situation, and some do not understand it so far. However, they were also those who bold all the products from the shelves, including salt and pasta.
A new disease, rapidly separated by the world, put the world economy and production "on the stop". The first was reacted with hydrocarbon markets and currencies of developing countries to which the ruble belongs. Oil fell in price below $ 20 per barrel, and in one day futures with a near delivery turned out to be in a negative price: investors, scareting cheaper fuel, they simply did not know where to make it - all the warehouses were clogged. Therefore, they were given "for so", also extracted from above to take.
This situation ruined several American oil companies, and OPEC + again had to sit at the negotiating table and attract other countries to dialogue. Now oil restores its position, and optimists among experts prophesy in 2021 68 US dollars per barrel of high-quality Siberian Brent. Will the forecast come true? Shows time. Much now depends on whether a new American sanction administration will remove from individual oil miners. If yes, the markets may choke in cheap unregulated oil. The situation, though it will be temporary, will make its negative contribution to the markets.
Devaluation ruble
For the dollar for the current year fell by 20%. To the euro - by 30%. Those who managed to buy "Europeans" and "Americans" at the beginning of the year were on horseback. Those who have previously translated their rubles to investment gold assets turned out to be on the Golden Kon. The most famous Russian investment coin of Georgy Victoronec took off in the price of almost twice. And still does not fall.
But the most severe yield was shown cryptocurrency. The weighted average rate of Bitcoin for the evening on December 30, 2020, according to the portal Bankiros.ru, is almost 28 thousand dollars. Secondly, investment in the investment turned out to be impersonal metallic accounts in palladium.
Interestingly, this year, as part of the support of its economy, the US Federal Reserve was published several trillion dollars. Money distributed to the public so that people could survive locked and ruin of companies in the service sector. At the same time, the dollar asked, but did not fall.
Within the framework of the World Uncertainty, investors massively purchased dollars, leaving for protective assets and rapidly got risky currencies of developing countries. As the effect - the dollar is still roads, the ruble is weak.
Investment and incidence of personal income tax
In the spring of this year, when the pandemic came to Russia, President Vladimir Putin appealed several times to the nation. At first, the head of state sent Russians to sit at home week, and then universal quarantine extended for another month.To fill the budget losses that were caused by falling oil prices, the need to support business, self-employed, unemployed and families with children, Putin announced the introduction of several tax measures at once.
The initiative has become the first and most exciting people. Initiative was the tax on deposits: since 2021, NDFLs at 13% will be subject to interest obtained on deposits above 1 million 42.5 thousand rubles (from the amount of deposits it will be necessary to subtract the product of a million rubles and a key bet on January 1 of the current of the year). At the same time, the tax will not be taken from the accumulated, but accrued by banks.
This news caused a negative among the population, what it turned out, we will tell later.
The second initiative turned out to be an increased NDFL of 15% for those who earn more than five million rubles per year. Money that is obtained in the excess of this amount will be enjoyed by increased income tax.
Another initiative, which is unimportant for ordinary citizens, but is important for the country's economy - the complication of the withdrawal of money into offshore. The President raised the tax rate for residents and non-residents, which bring money through Cyprus and other countries known to minimal taxes.
Helicopter money
After all the houses are downtown, the money in the pockets of Russians began to rapidly. Who did not dismiss (for those who lost their work, an increased unemployment benefit was discharged in the amount of regional minimum wage), sent on vacation or to a remote wage. This caused an even greater negative than the introduction of cubes of codes and fines for violating a special regime established in most regions.
As soon as other countries began to support their citizens Financially, the Russians began to create petitions with the requirement to distribute money to the population. Analysts and experts of people supported: only the lazy did not suggest "climb into a cube" - to open the fund of national welfare and share with Russian richness with Russians.
At the same time, knocking back from criticism, the government and the Central Bank opposed the distribution of "helicopter money" - the uncontrolled trenches to everyone and just like that.
And then Vladimir Putin decided to charge all families with children from 3 to 16 years of 10 thousand rubles. A month later, Tranche repeated, this time the parents of children from 0 to 16 years old were among the lucky ones. The money was paid according to the statement through the portal of the State Service. The income of families did not take into account.
Not all Russians reacted to these payments positively. Many outraged the cutting of age. In particular, many expressed the negative in the direction of the age qualification, asking in social networks: "And after 16 kids do not ask for children?".
In August, the people again worried: Will the third tranche pay? Numerous petitions to the presidential address demanding pay 10 thousand again to collect children to school, left unanswered.
The government extended that people will live for money paid: they will go and spend these money in grocery, clothing stores, spend on equipment and entertainment, which might run the economy and rapidly withdraw it from the crisis. The plan did not work. As statistics showed, this money people postponed "for a black day" or spent in those areas that did not affect the product ratio in any way.
By the way, before the New Year holidays, parents and guardians of children up to seven years, regardless of income received another tranche - five thousand rubles, which also caused discontent with those who did not get paid.
We take deposits: where did you carry money
The year became a tragedy for those who live in a savings model - prefers to save and postpone on purchases, but do not take loans. Bank deposits began to depreciate. If on January 1, 2020, the key rate of the Bank of Russia was 6.25% per annum, then in 2021 the figure enters, losing two percent - 4.25%.
Now the contribution is at the rate above 4% per annum - something from the fiction area. In fact, you will have to fulfill several conditions, for example, to put a significant amount to account, do not replenish and not to remove the tools for a certain period or postpone part of the money on IIS or accumulative insurance.
In this case, inflation at the end of 2020 should be higher than the planned 4% per annum. So, holders of ruble contributions for this year have earned almost nothing.
People understood this right away, and began to make money back in the first days of Quarantine - as soon as Putin announced the tax on deposits. Some sought to postpone the accumulated in the pillow for spending here and now, others were looking for alternatives.
Many funds flew to Eskrow's accounts. Calculating in the mind, how much is the apartment at the stage of the pit, and for how much it can be sold already in the finished home, many citizens literally invested in real estate. Increased demand for housing and the state program of the preferential mortgage rooted the market: by the end of the year, real estate prices have jumped significantly.
Other deposit holders lived on deposits, losing work. Third went to investors. The number of open IIS this year broke all records. In an effort to some yield, citizens actively began to buy investment products in the same banks. The trouble came from where they did not wait. At the end of the year, observing how many people are burned on unknown accounts, and then righteously complain about the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the regulator asked to limit the sale of investment products with unqualified investors, which clearly did not deliver the investment departments of banks and the company. How business will come out of this situation - it will be known only in the coming 2021.
Summing up
For the entire global economy, the year was bad. Very bad. The non-financial crisis almost buried the hydrocarbon markets, manufacturing industry and a number of other industries. In the ladies there were Diditel-company and delivery services. For the last 2020, it turned out to be a golden residential.
Of the good, several countries have already launched a massive vaccination against coronavirus, which soothes investors and gives an incentive to restore the global economy. A positive in the markets is always poured into risks and interest in developing economies to which Russia belongs. From the global risks of the country remained - new American sanctions and conflicts near the borders.
The most bold experts predict the strengthening of the ruble by the middle of 2021, which will follow immediately for the increase in oil prices. Whether the forecast will come true - no one can say with confidence. As shown 2020 - everything can change at one point.