In December 2020, Brussels and Beijing completed negotiations on an investment agreement, which should result in a "more balanced trade and business opportunities". In addition to the main task in the field of investment, the document may solve the problem of forced transmission of technologies, the opaque distribution of subsidies, and also pushes China to ratify the International Convention on Forced Labor. However, in the European Union itself, and in Washington there is a growing opposition to the outlined transaction. Does Europe succeed in finding a consensus and from Chinese and with the American side, appreciated Professor of China and Director of the Chinese Institute of Lau in the Royal College of London Kerry Brown.
- established by the world order under threat - there were many such statements from politicians of different levels and representatives of the expert community. However, this "New World" describes in detail no one is taken. What is political scientists and with what problems, from their point of view, will have to face states after completing the pandemic?
- The main concern is that the pandemic showed the world, divided between the United States with their allies and partners, and China, which is more isolated, but looks more dynamic and sustainable education than many expected. COVID-19 dramatically and unequivocally emphasized China's problem: we cannot ignore his influence, no matter where we live, and yet many in the outside world it is not easy to work with him due to incurred values.
Is it worth choosing a pragmatic path and identify areas in which we can cooperate and where we should simply agree to disagree, or the top will take idealism: refuse to China in any concessions or influence and try to build a divided world? 2021, probably, will not offer a clear solution to this dilemma, but it must give us clear prompts on how far we can go in collaboration and at what point will the discrepancies begin.
- How did the continued trade war between China and the United States affect the system of international relations, on the world order?
- The trading war was moved to the framework of Coronavirus. Now she really depends on it from economic impact. If China continues good growth, and the United States, Europe and other countries will get into recession or even depression, then the parameters of the trade conflict 2017-2020. Change. A much more relevant will be the question of which extent of the United States and other major economies can solve their political disagreements with China in such a way as to maximize their economic relations.
After COVID-19, China's isolating costs will grow. If countries want to do this, then they must understand what will have to pay for it - and that they will have to live with it. Sitting behind the fence and speak with an ordinary mantra "talking with China on issues in which we disagree, but to work in those areas where we agree" will become much more difficult.
- What will change in the relations of the United States and China under the administration of Baiden? Is it worth expecting "reboot" in bilateral relations?
- The Administration of Byyden may well go on the same to the most hard way as Trump, and to some extent Obama to him - to focus on China as the most important geopolitical problem with priority. But from the point of view of diplomatic tone and work on a multilateral basis there will be differences.
A very rude and assertive language of the era of Pompeo and Trump, most likely will leave in the past. The same applies to the American approach "Card yourself." It will make some things more difficult for China by creating more cohesive international pressure against him.
But for Biden, the question will be to what extent of the country and the organization, such as the EU, are forced to compromise in some areas that are important to the United States for economic reasons. Already, when the EU commercial agreement with China is likely to be concluded in the next few days, we see that it causes cracks in relations with the United States. This kind of event is likely to become more common.
- Brussels and London agreed on the trade transaction. What are your expectations?
- The deal was concluded on December 24th. Most likely, it will be ratified soon. The only thing that can be said about this is those who promised in 2016 that the United Kingdom can make a deal that will make it better and free from EU restrictions, did not speak truth. With this deal, the United Kingdom was freed from the EU restrictions from the point of view of sovereignty, but in economic terms it will have to pay.
The June referendum of 2016 is one of the most reckless acts ever committed by the British government - led to the fact that the United Kingdom was forced to obey its results and exit the EU. But ironically, the last four years have shown that Europe and the EU have never played a major role in British politics, practically forming and dictating her direction.
Until 2015, the EU was not the main problem for most voters. After this date, he became almost intrusive by the main concern. This is likely to continue for many years of incessant disputes regarding the implementation of the agreement 2020.
Britain has always been in Europe, but never belonged to Europe. This phenomenon will continue to take place.
- A new strain of coronavirus is distributed in the UK. What risks in itself a new infection for Europe?
- The incidence rate in the UK has grown sharply. Pandemic has become a huge political and social shock. The beginning of 2021 will be akin to the battle in terms of overcoming this problem and attempts then cope with economic consequences. The fact that in the UK is really vaccines, is the only sign of hope. But 2020 will be remembered as a gloomy year in modern British history, and it is likely that the current government will once pay for this its price.
- Russian-British relations are developing on the downlink. How can I achieve understanding?
- Russia and Britain need to speak more, and speak better. My two visits to Russia in 2010 and 2019. It was shown that in terms of ties between people, the base is positive. But official relations are much tougher.
It is a pity that there are so many distrust and constant tensions on both sides, given the huge general challenges facing both countries - economic, environmental and challenges from the point of view of global stability. We need to work more on common problems. And the Russian, and the British government must be tried to find a common language. It is impossible to achieve this alone.