Protests and the need to respond were deprived of the Duma elections of the status of the main thing in 2021. Events of public policy - and after all, before them, the experts of the St. Petersburg Policy Foundation are written. The intra-political unit of the presidential administration has not yet taken a final decision, which will be the strategy of power in the elections, confirm the interlocutors of Vtimes on the old square. Experts suggested three options for developing events: hard, medium and soft.
Decisivity is not enoughA splash of protest activity on January 23 and 31, seriously set the question of the streets of the streets with the background for the Duma elections and is it possible to rely on the preservation of common apathy, as it was, for example, in the 2016 parliamentary elections, notes the President of Petersburg Politics, Mikhail Vinogradov.
The report of the Fund states:
- There is no unambiguous signal regarding the strategy in the election strategy during this time, and the elections themselves remained on the periphery of the agenda. Part of the experts saw in statements at the seminar with the vice-governors in the formula "45-45" (percentage of appearance and permissible vote for "United Russia") psychological readiness to abandon the discrepancy of the expectations of ultrahigh results in recent years and voting for power.
Vice-Governors for internal politics, we recall, are appointed by the Kremlin and are responsible for the formation of the agenda and the holding of elections immediately before the presidential administration.
Two close to the administration of the president of the interlocutor Vtimes confirmed that the unambiguous signal, how to act in the elections, was not given to the regions. At the last congress of the internal policy curators, which passed on February 8-9 in the Moscow region, was much more discussed how to counteract the shares in support of Alexei Navalny: Flashmobs and its own, "correct", activity, told Vtimes one of the meeting participants.
301 vote, but you can and lessA similar January meeting was discussed by the need to secure the party of power 301 vote, but now in the Kremlin is not fully confident that this task is really realizable.
Much will depend on the message of the president and new social benefits, which, apparently, will appoint the president: will they be able to kill the protest agenda for a long time? In addition, it is difficult to evaluate how popular will be a protest surge in the summer, immediately before the united day of voting.
Based on the situation, Petersburg politics involves three possible scenarios of the Duma elections.
First ScenarioTraditionally, all participants in the process will be convinced of the impossibility or lateness of the changes and the counterproductiveness of the opposition play in the elections to the State Duma by increasing the power pressure and demonstrate the total support of power. The technical probability of such a scenario indicates the results of voting on amendment to the Constitution, which brought high results, despite the period of reduced power ratings, resemble fund experts. With this scenario, the turning risks fall to 40-45%. In the logic of such a scenario, it is assumed that the protesters will be disappointed that they cannot affect power or in the street, or at the polling station, and therefore will not and try. True, the ratings are not enough for confidence in cohesion around the president and its party of 80% of voters.
Scenario secondIt assumes the possibility of refusing to obtain "United Russia" of most mandates for party lists, but maintains its dominance, and public expectations will justify new party projects. With such a situation, the volume of the permissible criticism of the power of the Novopartians should be expanded. The parliament may pass to five parties, but at the expense of single-member districts "United Russia" receives about 260 mandates. Risk with this scenario is the mixture of the consciousness of elections and protests and the possibility of alarm relative to the output of the process from under control, "St. Petersburg policy" warns.
Scenario ThirdPressure reduction is allowed, but everything depends on the rating of United Russia (today balancing around 30%). If the rating will arrange the curators - the party will receive their most due to single-member districts. If the rating continues to fall, it will be possible to lose not only Moscow, Petersburg and other regions with a dominant negative agenda (garbage, ecology). Even with an unfavorable situation, they believed in the Petersburg Policy, the arithmetic majority of the United Russia does not take away, but then they will have to go on coalitions with "fair Russia", "new people" or the Russian party of pensioners for social justice. Thus, all parties will be satisfied: the protest movement will declare success and record low indicators, and the real alignment of the forces in the State Duma will allow the executive authority to maintain the "Control Package". The probability of this scenario is below the first two, vinogradov notes, but the fact that it is impossible to not be considered today is not considered.
What is the gameThe dispute, whether the elections in the State Duma become the main political event of the year, due to the blurring of the importance of the deputy mandate in the conditions of the historically established relatively low influence of the Parliament on the adoption of operational political decisions, are emphasized in the Fund. Despite several attempts by restyling the State Duma, there is no significant effect in the plan of political, nor in terms of hardware weight.
The expectations of the growth of subjectivity of the Duma were not confirmed - if at the start of the Duma connected to controversial stories (for example, a story with Moscow renovation), then it was then ceased to look for himself in this niche, focusing on the "unloading of the ruins of non-accepted bills" and the operational assistance of the executive authority in solving acute issues current agenda. Constitutional changes also did not affect the work of the Duma, the confirmation of which was the rapid statement in the autumn of 2020, several permutations in the government without attempts to convert increased constitutional powers to strengthen the impact on personnel solutions.
At the same time, this does not mean that the representative office in the Duma has no political sense. First, the Duma mandates continue to remain a significant source of status, especially for regional elites. In addition, the elections in the Duma are the search for new persons in politics in conditions of slow motion generations. Also, for example, the dimers enter the reserve bench - they are appointed to the government and governors of the regions.
Applicants"United Russia"
Party ratings fall. The Foundation says that the "stereotype, that the refusal to the concentrated support of United Russia would help reload the relations of citizens and power, to create the effect of updates, reduce the anti-tracking of the first persons." At the same time, there is an alternative point of view: "United Russia" passed a test for hardware and political survival. She quietly incorporated Dmitry Medvedev into their ranks, while maintaining normal relations with the Government of Mikhail Mishoustin.
In the Foundation, it is stated that the intrigue is preserved around possible attempts to push Vladimir Putin to lead the list of United Russia script according to the 2007 scenario. Technically, this is the most understandable scenario for power, but the risks associated with attempts to identify the part of the party with the ratings and the results of Putin (historically more High). The leadership option in the list of Dmitry Medvedev is also preserved, but it creates uncertainty around the possibility of administrative mobilization in favor of the party. The scenario with a presence in the list of Mikhail Mishoustina causes media and elite interest due to the low personal anti-tracking of the chairman of the government and its active public positioning.
Communist Party
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation concentrated on the voting of the position of "Party No. 2" and demonstration that the Communists came out of the conflict with the presidential administration around the ex-candidate Pavl Bescun (except for the loss of the position of the Governor of the Irkutsk region). For supporters of the Communist Party, the Question is now a question, whether she will be the party of Navalny's supporters. The Fund assumes that the Communists will try to lead from this niche - for example, through retracting in the next round of the fight against Lenin's burial, returning them into a purely ideological and uninteresting rhetoric and aesthetics protest.
LDPR
Unlike the Communists who lost the post of governor of the Irkutsk region, supporters of Vladimir Zhirinovsky preserved control over the Khabarovsk Territory, even after the arrest of Sergey Furgal. The problem remains the absence of a full-fledged representation on the agenda that is not related to the personal activity of Zhirinovsky.
"Fair Russia"
The merger with the parties "for the truth" and "patriots of Russia" has not yet created any synergy. This step has not yet been interpreted as an enhancement of the galleries or a deliberate black mark. So, the project "for the truth" as an independent was minimized. In itself, the union (little representable without administrative support) shows the preservation of the "license" at the ECROOV "licenses". True, the voter of these demarms may not notice at all: it can be assumed that a considerable part of the party's voters does not follow their election campaign and makes his choice, remaining alone with the ballot.
The rest of the parties
The appearance in 2020 various "small parties" looked like a study of a more complex variant with elements of reformatting a political field. He wore and wears a test character, since its viability is not completely clear to the players themselves. On the one hand, the authorities tried to take away the voices from other opposition projects and submit new persons in fatigue conditions, on the other hand, the curators could not wash off the "artificiality image": party brands exist very autonomously from social activity and public request. Although in the regions of the party and received mandates, there were without surprises: they passed where they were "promised." In addition, the concerns that new projects are drawn by the votes and at the "United Russia" itself.
"New people" is still successfully balanced between the paternalistic and liberal parties. From a resource point of view, the advantage of "new people" remains designated readiness to spend large in comparison with competitors tools in order to increase fame. "Green Alternative" could not be somewhat classified as an ecological agenda, which increases, for example, they were not heard in Schiesa. The party of direct democracy was noticeable only at the time of creation, after which its activity became nominal. The Growth Party with the arrival of Sergei Shnurova made an application for the activation of a public presence and search for new audiences, but 2020 blocked this success. The fame of the party remains significant (indirect confirmation of which was the Critic Crapa to Boris Titov after his IP statements). "Apple" caused rejection of a huge number of liberal voters after the founder of the Founder of the Gregory Yavlinsky party about the populism of Alexei Navalny, just a few days after replacing the conditional period for him. Nevertheless, the party retains the opportunity to be a party for supporters of Navalny. At a minimum, because among the apple themselves there are significant differences that are known to the voter who needs to be charged. In addition, the party has a number of bright regional activists.