Tuesday, February 16, gave a chance to the US dollar and the euro to play losses, and ruble - adjusted after rapid growth. To the closure of trading Tuesday, the dollar rate to the ruble calculations "Tomorrow" grew by 34 kopecks. (+ 0.47%), up to 73.67 rubles, and the euro course has also grown well, rushing to the ruble by 28 kopecks. (+ 0.31%), up to 89.26 rubles.
Oil prices slowed down growth, as the abnormal cold in the United States, which reduced oil production, began to weaken, so the ruble lost a rather important factor of support. Yes, and the threat of sanctions remains on the agenda. Meanwhile, the dollar stopped the weakening of global reserve currencies in anticipation that Congress still approves the stimulation of the economy proposed by Joe Biden.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated yesterday about the need, despite the existing differences, strengthen the "strategic stability" with Russia, since the extension of the bilateral Treaty on START-3 showed that the compromise with our country on the most important issues for the whole world is quite real. What way to strengthen this stability will be strengthened, Blinken did not say, but noted that the United States will look for "new ways to promote" to stability, which in general can create a positive background for the ruble at today's bidding.
The dollar rate to the ruble today is predicting again in the range of 73-74 rubles, and the euro rate - in the range of 88.9-90 rubles.
Oil market
Oil prices on Tuesday significantly slowed down the growth rates, and in the middle of the day, even rolled down for a while. The price of the Brent brand closed the auction all the same in a small plus, rising by 0.11%, to $ 63.01, while the price of the WTI variety grew by 0.12%, to $ 60.07 per barrel. In the morning, trading on the reference varieties of oil opened first with a multidirectional movement, that is, a very small increase in Brent and the same small fall of WTI, but at the moment the price of Brent is growing by 0.25%, rising to $ 63.01 per barrel, and the price WTI stopped falling and slightly rises by 0.05%, to $ 60.1 per barrel.
The US Minenergo on Tuesday reported that in March, the mining of shale oil in the United States as a result of February frosts will be reduced compared with February for 77 thousand barrels, up to 7.504 million barrels per day. In principle, this "bull" news for the market, however, apparently, the market is concerned that because of weakening frosts the news will be quickly taken into account in prices.
The price of Brent at the moment again tested $ 63 per barrel, and if the bidding today closes above this level, then the continuation of growth to $ 64 will be quite possible. Today we expect the corridor at the price of Brent at $ 62.8-64 per barrel.
Stock market
The Russian stock market on Tuesday showed multidirectional movements. The RTS index after the rapid growth of Monday on Tuesday decreased by 0.12%, to 1494.58 points. But the Mosbier index, on the contrary, continued growth and on Tuesday rose by 0.38%, to 3495.26 points. The leaders of the market growth on Tuesday were the depositary receipts of the Tinkoff Bank (+ 4.4%), the shares of the Retailee "M.Video" (+ 3.01%) and the preferred shares of Rosseti (+ 2.15%). Outsiders on Tuesday again became the shares of Alrosa Corporation (-2.2%), and the depositary receipts of the QIWI technological group were also reduced (McX: Qiwidr) (-1.86%) and EN + power companies (MCX: ENPLDR) (-1.55 %).
According to our forecast, today the RTS index may again be discarded in the range of values of 1480-1510 points, and the Mosbierzhi index - show oscillations in the range of 3490-3520 points.
Natalia Milchakova, Deputy Director of the Alpari Analytical Department
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