Vtimes found out new details of the placement of convertible bonds Telegram Group Inc (Head Company Telegram Pavel Durova's Messenger) and the company's assessment from Investbank.
"VTB Capital" as one of the agents of placegram accommodation described for investors a wide range of potential value of the messenger - from $ 2.2 billion to $ 124 billion in 2022. Vtimes familiarized themselves with the materials of the Investbank for qualified investors, one of them confirmed that he received an analytical note with Similar data through the investment application VTB.
To assess the Investbank Messenger, compared it with five analogue companies in the field of social networks and online advertising. The estimate of $ 2.2 billion turned out when compared to the EV / SALES multiplier is the ratio of the company's value to its sales. A $ 124 billion - when compared with EV / DAU, which shows the ratio of the company's value to the number of active users daily. Usually this coefficient is used for growing IT companies, says the management of the UK assets "Region Esset Management" Aleksey Skallabanovich - it shows the maximum assessments for messengers. In this case, the scatter between the assessment methods is acceptable due to the complexity of the assessment of such companies, he says.
VTB Capital also predicts that Telegram will grow faster than the market, but applies a discount to a group of analogues to emphasize the lack of operating history Telegram, its unverified business model and a possible backlog from competitors for profitability. The Bank operates with data that Telegram has more than 500 million active users per month, which generate 430 billion views of the Publications of the Messenger and can be the basis for the development of an advertising business model and other ways to monetize. VTB Capital also predicts a Telegram revenue about $ 200 million at the end of 2022.
The accommodation participant does not agree with the calculations of VTB: it evaluates the company ranging from $ 50 to 100 billion.
VTB Capital Indicates the main placement parameters: an indicative date of the end of receiving applications - March 9, an initial benchmark for profitability - 7% per annum, semi-annual coupon payments, deadline for five years and planned accommodation - more than $ 1 billion.
Telegram, according to the placement participant, accepts applications from March 8. The main period of collecting applications ends on March 10, he said and confirmed another person who knows the details of the placement. According to the placement participant, it will be completely over-the-counter - without listing and registration of the avenue, so that the company can disclose less information about himself, but to offer investors additional options like the prospects for conversion of bonds.
VTB Capital calls Telegram bonds "An interesting tool for investors with an increased risk appetite" and describes the conversion scheme in the case of a potential IPO of the company.
Conditions for conversion of the Bond Telegram in the case of an IPO of the Messenger ↓
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- In the case of an IPO earlier than three years later, the bonds are converted into stocks with a discount of 10%;
- With an IPO later than three, but earlier than four years later, - with a discount of 15%;
- And if the IPO will be held later than four years from the date of issue of bonds, the discount will be 20%.
Data: Materials "VTB Capital"
7% in dollars a fairly high yield, especially for convertible bonds. This year, from Russian Eurobond companies in dollars have already been released, for example, Gazprom and Ozon. Gazprom attracted $ 2 billion to eight years at 2.95% per annum. Ozon posted a convertible five-year bonds by $ 750 million under 1.875%.
The yields of high-quality Russian issuers with a five-year term to repayment do not exceed 2.5% per annum in US dollars, says Scallabanovich. The yield of 7% corresponds to the third echelon of papers, which is customary to characterize as "speculative", he adds.
While the company is unprofitable, so in theory, such bonds are considered very risky, because Telegram has no cash flow to pay off with borrowers, says Deputy Director of the UFG Wealth Management Investment Department of Evgeny Pundrovsky. However, with costs about $ 1 for the user a year, the service should be very easy to reconcile. Similar services earn $ 8-10 per year per user, it clarifies. If after two years the company will be released on an IPO, having more than 1 billion users, then it will obviously cost more than $ 100-150 billion and it will become mandatory for all major funds, Pundrovsky is sure.
At the end of February, it became known about the losses that Telegram suffers, and the sum of his debts. Telegram must return more than $ 600 million debt to investors until the end of April and to compensate them and support the operational activities of the Messenger, decided to bring $ 1 billion funding through bonds. The loss of the group in 2019 amounted to $ 150.9 million and $ 172.7 million a year earlier. At the same time, the company had a negative capital ($ 323.5 and $ 172.7 million in 2019 and 2018, respectively), and the obligations exceeded assets - $ 418 million and $ 245 million. Telegram financial reporting auditors indicated a high uncertainty that may cause serious Doubts about the company's ability to continue continuous activities with such indicators. To pay for debts in the future and develop Telegram, the company promised investors to monetize the messenger with advertising and new paid options.
The placement of Telegram bonds passes non-standard, there is no broad marketing and newsletter on the company or disclosure of reporting so that investors can assess the state of business, reminds the head of the Renaissance Capital Debt Market Analysis Department. Maria Radchenko. In her opinion, it could make it difficult to attract a wide range of institutional investors, and also bears the risks of the low liquidity of secondary paper circulation.
In the materials of VTB Capital, it is also indicated that ATON is a different placement agent. Find out how he appreciated Telegram, until it succeeded. ATON spokesman refused to comment, also a representative of Telegram.
VTB representative did not respond to the request.